Pinned straw:
@pubenvelope Been thinking for 2 months how to reply to your post - certainly got me thinking and I guess still looking for the positives. Like you, I went in hard at $27.27 before watching the freefall continue - even with any "positive" macro events, it improves momentarily only to be beaten down further. Its also not a typical Strawman community stock !
For me, I wanted to shape the portfolio with a large yielding stock as need the franked dividends while at the peak earning stage of life. Hence I got in fully knowing and expecting this would be a long term hold with time for this to play out. Its not a company I try to put a valuation on (perhaps in the too hard basket) and its the belief in the high level force of gas being the intermediary that will save the day as we transition to green. Surely this will be needed to step in at some point, making up for the lack of any true long term plan in this country and the gap of uranium coming in. It has to be a long term hold , albeit a painful one - but selling at the moment would be the wrong move for me (fully aware that it could drive lower under $20 in 2025). Still an abundance of oil and who knows how much America will ramp up.
Yes, the thesis is a slim one and its not my usual strategy to buy for the dividend component - especially with a price-taker commodity company that is on the outer. While it seems the funds mangers and superannuation mobs wont go near it, some funds such as Clime and Morgans have picked it up at these prices.
While I cant foresee ATM what is going to take this price higher - will be holding out longer term and believe they have a role to play which becomes more important in 10 years. There is a big announcement (soon I believe) with their WA Browse approval pending - could move the share price. Seems ATM anything that comes out is viewed in the negative (for the share price) while they are almost forced to invest in America which brings additional risk.
Wish I had more positive things to say or better research; 2 months of thinking since your post and I see all the negatives now. But it was always a 3-5 year story for me and the sustainable yield cushions the blow a bit. Its an exercise in being patient, 100% was in for the longer term with this one. I am certainly not selling at these levels (but also not topping up).
2 months on, wondering what's your (or others) thoughts ?
G'day Wingman and Pubenvelope,
Like you I am a long suffering WDS believer (and large holder IRL). I like the PE ratio, its policy on dividend payments, and its expansion strategy. It is well placed to benefit from the issues with Australia's current obsession with a renewables transition, and is bringing new supply online with good figures. It seems to me to be suffering predominantly from negative sentiment (never underestimate the power of sentiment - see CBA - it regularly trumps facts and logic), as mentioned in your posts no news posted by WDS seems to be treated as good news by the market and I think falling commodity prices at the moment is making the market question whether it can maintain dividends. The current price is way below the long term average. It is still a long term hold and accumulate for me. I continue to buy and intermittently (when it is falling) sell a proportion to lock in captial losses and then buy back at a lower price. I'm still a believer, it's a quality company producing a resource that consumers will continue to purchase for quite some time to come.
Just a little further, the 3 month chart RSI has WDS clearly in the oversold category, and the trajectory on the MACD looks like it could be approaching a cross upwards above the signal line hopefully indicating an upward movement.