@Scoonie and @Aaronfzr since the SM meeting with Alan Taylor last year, I've invested a bit of time trying to better understand the radiopharmaceutical sector. As a non-specialist, I find oncology tough - with each individual disease, there are so many variants, disease progression pathways, treatments, and stages. Four months in, I am not even scratching the surface. However, this is a topic area of focus for me in 2025!
As I started researching the sector, it soon became apparent to me that there is a lot of potential upside in $TLX - we're essentially paying for the diagnostic business, with the therapeutics a large abeit risky upside. I took a small 2.5% RL position in August, which today is a 3.8% position - helped by the recent approval of Illucix in the EU (even though it was already on the EU treatment guidelines.) On $TLX I am running a bit blind on the supply chain economics. They're investing heavily in building the global supply chain and, with all the deals, its pretty much impossible to understand the cost of sales, and from that the longer term margins. So, I am going to be patient here as that uncertainty will resolve over time, and I need time as I want to see that the therapeutics are doing to deliver. So I don't mind own this size of a position where my knowledge is a lot lower than I'd normally expect.
Back to $CU6: I baulked at $CU6's valuation at the time of the SM meeting, however, with limited material newsflow over recent months we've seen a 50%+ pullback,...no bad news, just no significant newsflow from the pipeline. Perfect! So I have taken a tiny RL position, and also an initial stake in SM today.
I do see this as speculative at this stage, and it breaks my general rule of not investing in biotech and pharma pre-revenue (so I'll never get rich quick!). However, the science, the platform, and the early clinical results give some confidence that there is going to be something here ,... at some time.
Of course, at $1.2bn market cap. there is a long way to fall if the next news items are negative, so my position is speculative and therefore small. And I agree with @Aaronfzr that there is ample room for more hot money to flow out of this one over the coming weeks. However, on good news, I will definitely add more and would prefer to be adding to a position, rather than starting from scratch.
Thanks for all your content on this one over the months. It has helped spur my own work and in due course I hope to contribute too.
Disc: Held in RL and SM (small order in today)