@occy I don't have the answers.

There may be a leak somewhere.

I was surprised to see that Sonic Health Care Ltd has a 19.1% stake in MAP - Maybe I just didn't pick that up in the SM meeting.

Could be positive news tomorrow - maybe?

From memory when reading up on MAP I remember Sonic taking a strategic stake what would now be 2-3 years back. In turn Sonic would onsell testing kits. I can't remember if there was exclusivity on products. I really need to go back over my notes. I'm surprised it is only a 19% stake too. I thought it was 30% but again...fuzzy memory maybe or possibly they offloaded some and I missed the announcement.

Either way I'm a bit nervous about tomorrow in respect to the price. It could be great news and you are correct and has been leaked or bad news or even little news at all, it could be a hefty price drop. I did buy in with the premise of being a long term holder so I really shouldn't be too bothered either way but who likes seeing losses, even just paper ones.

FWIW: I looked MAP up on Hot Copper.

"Triage" posted "CEO, Luke Reid, playing silly buggers with the numbers again" - Post is the third one down on this page Click Here

I have no affiliation or great understanding of any of this, However it's a thoughtful post. Best taken with a grain of salt.

MAP has been loosely on my radar. A little too loosely, as I missed the recent SP appreciation.

Well done to you @occy. I'll be watching for the announcement tomorrow.

@occy MAP has just released its Quarterly report. At a very quick glance it looks good.

I am going to watch the investor presentation

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

@Arizona I'm also invested here and at a glance it looks good.

Sales growth looks real. There is some seasonality which I will have to double check. There is also a lot of development going on. I will make some notes.

In regards to the HC comment. Calling it 'silly buggers' is cynical. What's wrong with referring to a 'run-rate' if that's what you think will be closer the the outcome? I think Luke is very careful in his delivery because there is so much going on and he wants to cut through the noise. For sales there is both upwards growth and a seasonal valley going on. I don't think he's being misleading, he showed the seasonal graph. He just said, look at the PCP.

He might rub some people the wrong way because his delivery might be received as borderline patronising. But I believe that is because he is hyper-focused on the message with honest intention. There really is a lot going on, which he does a good job of outlining if you play along.

@occy A small fund, Mercer, bought in in December and there's obviously been some momentum. But given the promise of continued updates, I'm a happy holder.

@lastever Great to hear from you.

Its good to get your take on Luke, including his delivery.

I just watched the presentation and I remain interested.

I think I'll watch the SM meeting again and do some more homework on MAP

Sorry @Arizona , I spend half my time caring for an ill rello so I haven't had the chance to look too thoroughly as yet or will until my block is over.

Having a quick read though, yeah top line numbers look good. A couple of things I did notice, they still burnt through a few million in cash but still have $17m in the bank but if the Government grant of $6m is deducted that number certainly wouldn't be looking as good. Tests sold had quite a significant decline too from the previous quarter which I will have to look into along with a decline in clinicians orders which would go hand in hand but will try and understand the reasoning. And the significant decline in cash recipts too of 25% so a sign of slowing growth overall?

For the record I sold 1/3rd of my position yesterday afternoon. I won't decide how I feel about this info until I go over it thoroughly. Obviously with the run up in price too this will change how I view my investment at their current valuation. I'm not too surprised in the +10% fall today. Given how hard the stock price has run recently no matter what they reported it would have been tough to keep the momentum rolling so a bit of consolidation isn't a shock.

And best of luck to anyone that ventures in the murky waters of Hotcopper. I can't cop the place. I know there are some pearls of wisdom amongst it but my eyes get sore from the constant eye rolling. I find some commentators very frustrating.

And thanks @lastever , I wasn't aware of the Mercer investment

“He might rub some people the wrong way because his delivery might be received as borderline patronising. But I believe that is because he is hyper-focused on the message with honest intention. There really is a lot going on, which he does a good job of outlining if you play along.”

 @lastever in relation to the above excerpt from your post I would completely agree.  I have met MAP CEO Luke Reid and think your assessment is a fair one.  By way of personality, I cannot imagine Luke ever getting a skinful and telling an off-colour joke.  I get the impression Luke is a 24/7 Egghead. And what’s wrong with that. As long as he is doing his job diligently, which I think he is.   

 The field of gut health is a growing one, and rightly MAP have taken the view they need to dominate their particular segment, which comes at the price of losing a bootload.   Just when they will financially turn it around is anyone’s guess. However in the meantime you are asked to pay up, with a market cap of $125m. And with Sonic sitting there with 19%, there is next to no chance of another party making a juicy takeover offer.  However I think definitely one to keep on the watchlist.  

Thanks @occy I have been held up elsewhere myself.

I hope to do some deeper digging on this soon.

Re Hot Copper: Its pretty brutal in there. Check out the BOT forum. It ain't the place to go, to restore your faith in humanity.