Forum Topics IMB IMB Ready to Rumble!

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Whilst I am not a big fan of the way IMG present their results (too many adjustments to present a more glowing result) when in fact they will report a statutory loss for the half year, I am prepared to stay the distance as we are ready to rumble, which I cautiously predict will be in FY26.

The good thing is they have the cash reserves to go the distance and with the refinancing to a Big 4 Bank very imminent (deal done, just the paperwork required), the interest rate will drop from an horrendous 15% back to commercial levels of around 7% to 9%.

We end the 1HFY25 with $26.2m in the bank (up by $14.9m on 1Q from the $23.7m raised as additional capital - which means we spent $8.8m investing in the biz- acquisitions & capital-raising costs). This should give us a clear runway to bed down the recent acquisitions. So, this is a good financial position to encourage organic growth, which appears to be very plentiful. 

The most encouraging ‘proof of concept’ mentioned in the report & as alluded to by Dennison in his presentation was the massive success of the video guarding & verification platform(s) in this current month (January). It detected 5 separate break-ins & with speedy info passed to the Police, arrests were made on the spot! This is unheard of in the old world of security.

Surely, this has got to be HUGE for future promotion…to the point where Dennison said they won’t push it right now because they will get swamped. He is still concentrating in putting the systems in place and that potential has no one else who can do it.

Given that monitoring is currently 65% of our revenue base, this can go nuts when we can handle the opportunity properly.  I like Dennison’s concluding comments <quote> “IMG is now positioned to disrupt the traditional security industry and looks forward to accelerating the rollout of these services during 2025.”

 For mine, this is validation of the business model and IMG are easily market leaders in Australia/NZ with a reasonable moat.

rh8178
Added a month ago

Nice commentary @PortfolioPlus - I like the business but always hated that finance facility. Quick question, from memory there were some warrants attached to the facility that's being refi'd - was that right and what did they say is happening with those?

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RogueTrader
Added a month ago

Interesting stock @PortfolioPlus - have you seen Christian Schmidt's analysis? He's been posting on IMB for a few months now: https://tridentopportunities.substack.com/p/intelligent-monitoring-group-limited-ef9

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PortfolioPlus
Added a month ago

No mention of those matters. TBH, the financial matters weren’t handled well in the live presentation session. Jason Biddell the CFO obviously knows his stuff, but his explanations left me and others (judging by the questions asked) somewhat flummoxed. I’m still not sure what to make of all the underlying and non recurring adjustments made. So, I came to these conclusions (a) The finance book is now in order (b) We are cash from operations neutral in both quarters this FY (c) we have sufficient cash on hand to invest further in improving the businesses now in the stable (d) we are now through the adjustments and costs of the recent acquisitions (e) they have reaffirmed their previous outlook suggestions and, most importantly (e) the revenue potential of their technological monitoring services are immense. In December alone they wrote 2 substantial contracts, one of which is $1m pa

i should also add, I like Dennisons style, he is very much a ‘put the horse in front of the buggy’ and gently gently catch the monkey sort of a manager.

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PortfolioPlus
Added a month ago

@RogueTrader, YES, I have seen Christian’s analysis and posted my comment agreeing with him. I’m not in a loss situation at today’s price which gives me latitude to continue to watch Dennison roll this out. Certainly the wider macro view would indicate that security both residential and commercial is a big growth area. Emotive, too. Likely to become a necessity, not a luxury.

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RogueTrader
Added a month ago

@PortfolioPlus Thanks Damien, love your work! Certainly one to keep an eye on - I saw a large gathering of potential customers on a news report of a certain gangland funeral in Melbourne just yesterday :) Btw any other good substacks commenting on Oz stocks you recommend? (Currently I follow Max Wellth, Tauranga, Robin Research, Trident Opp's, Mopoke, Goforgrowthco, Compound & Fire.)

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PortfolioPlus
Added a month ago

@RogueTrader, re Substack. Kevin Schoovaerts from the Netherlands (Kevin from Atmos) has some pretty good general stuff and right now is back testing companies which show a turnaround after a number of down years. He operates in the global small/micro space & follows asset light companies with good ROE growth.

TBH, I’m still waiting for my Substack folk to deliver a ‘blinder’ but it’s good to get a worldwide perspective. I’ve limited myself to ASX companies because I know the laws & customs + my investment focus is more established companies throwing reasonably predictable profits and paying franked dividends. In cricket terms I’m happy to gather singles and two’s rather than swing to the boundary. I’m protecting my wicket.

That said, but I have been noticing quite a number of ‘maybe potentials’ in Europe, and Italy in particular, via Substack.

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Domjack
Added a month ago

Thanks Portfolio

I am quite interested in the international shares myself.

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RogueTrader
Added a month ago

Thanks @PortfolioPlus I'll check that one out. I too only have ASX coy's in my current portfolio, tho I've invested in some US stocks in the past.

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