Whilst the books don’t yet reflect IMB to be a worthwhile investment, the macro environment does. They are introducing industry leading video technology to the security industry with a significant AI twist. Plus, they now own a leading existing player in ADT. The company claims their technology makes their offering 4 times more effective than the bumbling old security guard with a gimpy leg. Sounds logical, but I have my doubts that MSS Security (easily Australia’s largest) which employs some 7,000 plus staff v IMB with around 1,000 will take this lying down. It’s owned by a large Indian company and they will come back hard, is my bet.

 Nevertheless, IMB are grabbing market share and they do have the opportunity and financial firepower to mop up many of the smaller competitors in this very fragmented marketplace.

 Now let’s talk people and then I’ll give you my take on how & when they might bail.

 Dennison Hambling (current MD of IMG) is at heart an entrepreneur and there’s plenty of evidence that both he and Peter Kennan (Geneva based Chairman & major shareholder with some 36%) have done plenty of M&A transactional work together. Take over a distressed company, clean it up and flick it on is their modus operandi.

 No way does Dennison see himself running a security business for the rest of his career. They are simply dressing this up in the expectation the marketplace will recognize and reward with a higher share price at which time they can sell to institutions, particularly if they can get it into the ASX 300m which is their dream, but presently, its unrealistic.

 Currently a market cap of $711m is required to oust last placed Centuria Office REIT whereas the MC for IMB is $184m (@ 52c) price would need to increase to $2.03. This isn’t going to happen inside 2 years.  

 In a recent mid-April 2025 Podcast with ‘Value Hunt’ (a Kiwi podcaster) Dennison concluded an hour-long dissertation on the virtues with the following commentary (as verbatim as I could quickly record)

 “If the market does not value us over the next 12 to 24 months we are a very transactable business & there’s plenty of global interest. I’ve done a lot of work globally around who the players are.”

 So, there you go – they’ve already got their exit position likely secured. And right now (20 April 2025) they and Allan Gray and MA Financial own 59.83%...so getting a deal done won’t be difficult. In the meantime, we can expect Dennison to don his very best promotional cap and yes, since writing this article, a surge has commenced. There is interest happening from overseas.

Disclosure: I have got a reasonable holding as I do expect this to run based upon improving quarterlies and FY26 should be a clear year where we get to see the profits and cash emerge. 

NAB providing up to $122,500,000 of secured term debt. Should be implemented by end of March 2025.

The new facility is broken into:

• a replacement term debt facility
• a new acquisition facility and
• a bank guarantee facility.

The implied rate will drop from 15% for the existing ADT Acquisition facility to approx. ~7%.

This will result in a >$6.5m p.a. reduction in interest expense.

Post refinancing, IMG expects a pro forma Gross Debt to EBITDA ratio of ~2.2x versus a covenant ratio of <3.25x for the facility term.

Whilst I am not a big fan of the way IMG present their results (too many adjustments to present a more glowing result) when in fact they will report a statutory loss for the half year, I am prepared to stay the distance as we are ready to rumble, which I cautiously predict will be in FY26.

The good thing is they have the cash reserves to go the distance and with the refinancing to a Big 4 Bank very imminent (deal done, just the paperwork required), the interest rate will drop from an horrendous 15% back to commercial levels of around 7% to 9%.

We end the 1HFY25 with $26.2m in the bank (up by $14.9m on 1Q from the $23.7m raised as additional capital - which means we spent $8.8m investing in the biz- acquisitions & capital-raising costs). This should give us a clear runway to bed down the recent acquisitions. So, this is a good financial position to encourage organic growth, which appears to be very plentiful. 

The most encouraging ‘proof of concept’ mentioned in the report & as alluded to by Dennison in his presentation was the massive success of the video guarding & verification platform(s) in this current month (January). It detected 5 separate break-ins & with speedy info passed to the Police, arrests were made on the spot! This is unheard of in the old world of security.

Surely, this has got to be HUGE for future promotion…to the point where Dennison said they won’t push it right now because they will get swamped. He is still concentrating in putting the systems in place and that potential has no one else who can do it.

Given that monitoring is currently 65% of our revenue base, this can go nuts when we can handle the opportunity properly.  I like Dennison’s concluding comments <quote> “IMG is now positioned to disrupt the traditional security industry and looks forward to accelerating the rollout of these services during 2025.”

 For mine, this is validation of the business model and IMG are easily market leaders in Australia/NZ with a reasonable moat.

This was an interesting chat. Frankly, it doesn't seem like that sexy a business, but I get the sense that Dennison gets the key strengths of the business and is playing to that.

Specifically, forget the tech -- yeah it's cool and getting better and cheaper, but they are (mostly) resellers. IMB is a SERVICE business -- they provide the "do it for me" solution.

Despite the initial expectations of a straightforward exit, the reality was a need for a hands-on approach to fix integration issues and drive growth.

There's a tailwind with increased adoption of these systems (lower prices, better tech and a huge under-penetration in Aus/NZ), and people value trust and reputation more than anything (according to Dennison). Scale matters a lot for this kind of business, and they are now the largest of its kind in Australia and have done a lot of work improving operational effectiveness, righting the offering and improving the fundamentals.

Also, this is NOT a roll-up (although clearly was previously and acquisitions have, to date, been a big part of the growth story.)

Dennison reckons he can double the revenues in the coming years, and get around 25% EBITDA margins

Corporates are now the focus, but also do personal homes and DIY security solutions.

Leveraging the trusted ADT brand to enhance market presence. This business had been unloved as part of a larger global entity, but it's proven to be a good addition in terms of brand recognition.

The focus appears to be on sustainable and profitable growth rather than aggressive expansion.

His focus is culture, customer focus, and strategic planning.

Was quite frank about past mistakes: he underestimated the capital cost of upgrading their fleet from 3G to 4G, which has significantly pulled resources and focus away from organic growth to retaining existing customers.

The company has been double-costed during the transition from JCI, as they have been building their internal staff while still paying JCI for services. This additional cost is expected to end by July.

Based on the forward guidance for FY24, they look to be on a EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6. Not too demanding *IF* the growth aspirations are realistic, even roughly.

Hi all,

I'm going to look into this one, and report back, but wondered if anyone had looked at it before. I was involved with an alarm monitoring business a few years ago, and really like the business model. Once it's built the incremental revenue can be (potentially), very high margin. Might be too late given the jump this morning on the news of the acquisition.

Will report back,

Rich

PS - don't hold here or IRL.