Forum Topics PNV PNV Shorts are up for PNV

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=PNV

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Interesting shorts are up quite a bit. Always worries me what they know that we do not.....(althought I have sold 90% of my holding IRL and still have some in SM).

My thoughts are:

  • Maybe they see what we have seen (in terms of growth falling back)....and think there could be a sell off? Although most here think $2.20-2.60 is pretty fair value.
  • Maybe one of their products in development has tanked?
  • BARDA approval going to take longer?


OR

Maybe they are locking in their profits by taking both their long and new short position. Is that legal?

What do people think?


Scoonie
Added 3 months ago

Maybe the shorters have figured out David Williams is a bullshit artist.

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mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Parko5 consensus is for FY revenue growth to fall to 28% for the FY, but it fell to 23% for the HY, so it is perhaps not an unreasonable short thesis to believe that the consensus for the next 3 years of 28%, 25% and 23% is going to be undershot.

I'm not sure BARDA timing is a factor. They've never been clearabout milestone dates, but maybe some who don't understand the process were more optimistic.

So far, none of the covering analysts have adjusted their recommendations or PTs so far as I can see, including those up at the more spicey $3.00 end - which now looks hard to justify. This is probably because they are holding off until seeing the full HY report.

So maybe the shorts are positioning for the downgrades to come, which is essentially what my analysis of a couple of weeks ago was about.

But I also agree with @Scoonie - DW has been caught out playing "smoke and mirrors" with his repeated statements of "the Board is considering stopping record month reporting". The music in the Big Top has stopped!

It's going to be fascinating seeing the full results and attending the presentation in a couple of weeks.

Disc: Not held

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Parko5
Added 3 months ago

You are going to attend in person?

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mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Parko5 no - we don't have that option. I meant listen to the Investor/Analyst 1H Results call. (Sorry to be unclear!)

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