Thanks @saiton

Yeah i'm going to watch for another week and then see where we are at.

Trump may also impose tariffs on pharmamaceuticles. I know BTM is a medical device....but tariffs could be imposed.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-to-impose-tariffs-on-oil-and-gas-imports-next-month-pharmaceuticals/

If that happens....could impact USA sales (bulk of our current sales).

@Parko5 yes, the tariff could be interesting here. $IART and $AVH manufacture in the US for the US (as I understand it), so that would put ANZ companies like $PNV and $ARX at a distinct disadvantage.

$PNV can flex a little through pricing power and absorbing some in the margin - but the net effect would depend on just how important product-on-product competion is becoming. My hypothesis is that it is starting to bite - but I have not idea how strongly.

A key I will be looking at is this quarter's (reporting in April) sales for $AVH and $IART, as both report quarterly. Particularly because $AVH is still guiding for strong growth in 2025, despite the recent disappointing update for Q4. (They are building a track record of not meeting expectations!) And I am still interested to see how $IART is coming back after the recall.

Albo was reportedly able to go in to bat today for Bluescope(sorry, I mean Aussie steel and aluminum) partly because Bluescope have invested a lot in the US and have a lot of jobs there, which is exactly what Trump has invited ALL firms to do, which I think means as much if not more that the overall US trade surplus with Australia.

It is unclear whether any carve out we might get is going to apply as a blanket for Aussie Inc. or product by product, depending on what the major firm in each product category is doing. Both $ARX and $PNV have 100% concentration in their supply chains. Which in general is never a good thing, if you can avoid it.

$PNV missed any opportunity to diversify when they went for the the $500m sales expansion on the current site. I understand why they did that because a new site would have added a bunch of new fixed costs, which were avoided by expanding at the current location.

However, the Board seemed oblivious to concentration risk, because when I asked the question at an investor call or AGM or SM meeting a few years ago, DW was quite dismissive, saying that they were in separate buildings so they wouldn't all burn down if there was a fire. My question was a broader question, but as a retail investor our questions are often not given proper consideration.

Just hit $1.735.

how low can it go!

I have a bid in at 1.725.

@Parko5 I know it’s only part of the picture, but shorts still seem to be increasing, which means there is a steady supply into the market. (Pic below is from Shortman, so lagged by several days and therefore doesn’t say anything about the last few days.)

I imagine potential major buyers are awaiting the HY result. So, the steady supply is pushing the price down.

Just guessing though.

If the financials are good, it’s likely a good entry point. If not, then all bets are off.

Disc: Not held

Agree.....my order was not fulfilled.

I think the pattern the manipulators use is to dump shares on open....create the momentum down....then in the arvo....buy back to get more shares to dump the next day. Occasionally mix it up so that it is hard to detect. Pretty easy to do when your cost to trade is effectively zero.

I hate these games. A 'per trade' tax would put a stop to it. And fund ASIC properly.

I think you are right.....might be worth waiting.

Shorts still increasing.

@mikebrisy

I get you are concerned that RoW growth is not as expected. On HC some people have pointed out that the H1 FY2024 Trading Result had 122% growth for RoW but that included a one off Ukraine sale of $1.2 million. If we take that out, the fall to the 28% RoW growth for H1 FY2025 Trading Result is much less.

still not where we want it. But as DW has said, sales in PNV can be lumpy.

i guess what I am trying to suggest….is your thesis actually broken? Could this just be an aberration?

im now starting to think of investing back in. But I’m willing to wait a bit to see where the SP goes. PNV really feels like a manipulated stock at times like now. I can see it dropping more due to the time till the next likely announcement (mid year).