@Parko5 yes, the tariff could be interesting here. $IART and $AVH manufacture in the US for the US (as I understand it), so that would put ANZ companies like $PNV and $ARX at a distinct disadvantage.

$PNV can flex a little through pricing power and absorbing some in the margin - but the net effect would depend on just how important product-on-product competion is becoming. My hypothesis is that it is starting to bite - but I have not idea how strongly.

A key I will be looking at is this quarter's (reporting in April) sales for $AVH and $IART, as both report quarterly. Particularly because $AVH is still guiding for strong growth in 2025, despite the recent disappointing update for Q4. (They are building a track record of not meeting expectations!) And I am still interested to see how $IART is coming back after the recall.

Albo was reportedly able to go in to bat today for Bluescope(sorry, I mean Aussie steel and aluminum) partly because Bluescope have invested a lot in the US and have a lot of jobs there, which is exactly what Trump has invited ALL firms to do, which I think means as much if not more that the overall US trade surplus with Australia.

It is unclear whether any carve out we might get is going to apply as a blanket for Aussie Inc. or product by product, depending on what the major firm in each product category is doing. Both $ARX and $PNV have 100% concentration in their supply chains. Which in general is never a good thing, if you can avoid it.

$PNV missed any opportunity to diversify when they went for the the $500m sales expansion on the current site. I understand why they did that because a new site would have added a bunch of new fixed costs, which were avoided by expanding at the current location.

However, the Board seemed oblivious to concentration risk, because when I asked the question at an investor call or AGM or SM meeting a few years ago, DW was quite dismissive, saying that they were in separate buildings so they wouldn't all burn down if there was a fire. My question was a broader question, but as a retail investor our questions are often not given proper consideration.

@Parko5 I know it’s only part of the picture, but shorts still seem to be increasing, which means there is a steady supply into the market. (Pic below is from Shortman, so lagged by several days and therefore doesn’t say anything about the last few days.)

I imagine potential major buyers are awaiting the HY result. So, the steady supply is pushing the price down.

Just guessing though.

If the financials are good, it’s likely a good entry point. If not, then all bets are off.

Disc: Not held

Shorts still increasing.