Forum Topics EVN EVN H1 of FY2025 Report

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

12-Feb-2025: EVN-Record-H1-FY25-Financial-Performance.PDF

Plus: FY25 Half Year Results Presentation.PDF

Plus: Appendix 4D and FY25 Half Year Financial Report.PDF

Plus: Evolution-Mining-Executive-Leadership-Update.PDF

Two months ago, I highlighted here that EVN were in a solid uptrend:

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Well, that has certainly continued, and today's report hasn't done that uptrend any harm at all:

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Disclosure: I hold EVN in my SMSF, having bought back in last year. I had previously gone cold on the company because of the increased exposure to copper through their production of more copper than gold (by value) at two of their mines (Ernest Henry and Northparkes), however I'm now more comfortable with that dual exposure - to both copper and gold.

Here's some of today's highlights:

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I note they are using a gold price there (in note 5 above) of A$3,300/oz and the gold price today was over A$4,600/oz, so EVN are being conservative here, and there is clearly plenty of further upside potential in this guidance.

And here (below) are some of the more important slides from their presentation today:

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Above: The only metric that was below the previous half was gearing, i.e. they have reduced their debt, so every single metric improved.

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I love the way they break down their costs by minesite (below). Ernest Henry and Northparkes had NEGATIVE AISC (All In Sustaining Costs per ounce of gold produced) due to copper byproducts, which, as I have previously stated here, distorts their Group AISC number (which is $1,475 to $1,575 per ounce - all amounts are in Australian dollars) and makes them look like low cost gold producers when the reality is that 3 out of 6 of their mines (being Mungari, Red Lake and Mt Rawdon, the bottom three below) have high costs, and in Mt Rawdon's case, VERY high costs ($3,000 to $3,500/ounce).

Cowal is EVN's BEST gold mine by a country mile, and they have reasonable costs of $1,700 to $1,770/ounce, but EVN's overall group cost guidance for all the gold they expect to produce in FY25 is even LOWER than Cowal, even though their other three gold mines (Mungari, Red Lake and Mt Rawdon) have HIGHER costs. The group AISC (costs) are distorted by those negative AISC (costs) at their two copper/gold mines where they use all of the profits from those mines' copper production to offset the gold production costs from those two mines and end up with negative costs because they make more profit from that copper than it costs them to produce the gold from those two mines.

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Below is something I'd like to see ALL gold producers (and other miners) do, break down their costs in percentage terms so analysts and us mug punters can see how much underlying price movements in these inputs (electricity, labout, diesel, reagents, etc) might affect EVN's costs. They also show there (below, right) how copper and gold price movements - and volumes produced - affect their cash flows and their costs.

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It's a pretty comprehensive report in terms of both what they've achieved and their guidance.

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Disc: Holding.

Slideup
Added 4 weeks ago

@Bear The AISC costs of Mt Rawdon in the HY report are not really a true reflection of the mine as it is now just processing stockpiles so the $3000-3500 AISC is more of an accounting charge than a true reflection of what it costs. In one of the quarterlies a while back they talked about this, how its not a cash cost. Agree though its not a spectacular mine and they wont lose much when it goes.

These are the AISC from the december quarterly, and for most of the time I've been following it its had an AISC of between 1600-2500. It looks like they have another 7-12000 ounces to get out of the stockpiles and then its shut down permanently and will potentially become a hydro battery, which I think is a bit of a sleeper at the moment in terms of value generation.

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Bear77
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks @Slideup - Yes, I knew Mr Rawdon was mined out and they were just down to stockpiles, so I should have excluded them from my analysis. I do note that Jake has taken that conversion project on (to pumped hydro) and that's the only work he'll be paid for after June 30 when he becomes a non-exec Chair instead of his current role or Executive Chairman - other than his Chairman's fees of course. So, from memory, around $500K in Chair fees (p.a.) and up to $200K (p.a.) for his work on Mt Rawdon Pumped Hydro.

I had shares in Genex Power, who were doing the same thing in Queensland (at their "Kidston Hub"), converting two old mining pits that were flooded into a pumped hydro set-up for energy storage when the sun was shining and energy generation when the sun wasn't available to generate solar power - attached to a decent solar farm of course, which was set to be significantly expanded and with plans to add wind turbines as well, and they (Genex) got taken out at a decent premium, so we made some coin on that one. Genex had other assets elsewhere on the east coast including a large Tesla battery set-up and two other working solar farms (other than at "Kidston"), but I do note they were acquired before their pumped hydro project was completed, despite a few issues with that project earlier on that had blown out the costs somewhat.

I agree that there is likely significant value in that future Mt Rawdon pumped hydro asset within EVN that many analysts won't be bothering to factor in to their models yet. I do also note that a few things can go wrong during construction, such as flooding of the main access tunnel (one of the things Genex encountered) and other geological issues - the types of stuff that can happen with tunneling - encountering unexpected ground/rock/water. However there are plenty of pumped hydro setups in the Northern Hemisphere that are working well, and it's a great way of using water + gravity to generate power at any time that wind and solar are unavailable.

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