Pinned straw:
Hi Guys,
I'm not so sure they have stuck to the timeline?
The Jan quarterly only seemed to show the PEP sales but the chart below had a lot more action planned..
IHHS full list starting mid November and 1m targeted patient list starting early December.
No big issue but Matt was referring to this chart at the Lytham partners interview in December and the sales data looks like they were behind as the first scripts only shipped late December.
I think the jump is from some bigger players starting to run the numbers, when you extrapolate for the bigger population based on the ecclock sales this should do really well. A couple of small cap funds have had notes that they have taken positions and expect it to do well, I'll have to dig up the announcements if I can find them.
Disc held IRL & SM
Agreed the market is anticipating some news and hopefully some numbers before the month is out.
An indication of how SOFRA has been taken up, how the PEP went, how the sales team and the platform are working so far, etc etc,
The company has given the market the timeline and has thus far stuck to it. If they continue to stay on track, some preliminary data should soon be at hand.
Re the reviews: It is impossible to know what I am looking at with any of those. The misinformation and BS is rife.
Wading through the Hot Copper forum, I found people claiming to have written positive reviews to help BOT SP along.
Disc: Held IRL and SM
@occy I agree with you, but that is the sewer that social media is.
I wanted to highlight my own scepticism about the reviews because whenever we look at data, we have to ask what is the quality of the data? (GIGO)
I was very sceptical to read 20 reviews on drugs.com all giving 10/10 ratings and all positive on efficacy, comparative performance to other treatments, and side effects, when we know the clinical trials data - while good - is not that good. I hope the reviews are genuine, but I am highly sceptical.
I tend to pay little attention to what people say or don't say on HC, as a lot of what is written there is absolute garbage. (Although there are some nuggets buried in the mire from time to time, too).
But I trust my own assessment of the reviews as I found them, and they are unreasonably positive compared with the published clinical data.
You are right to flag the morality of this issue. As part of my research I registered as a silent user on a FB Support Group. Some of the stories that sufferers write, the photos they published, and the various difficulties they face really are an eye opener, reinforcing some of the presentations we've heard via $BOT from the International Hyperhidrosis Society. (As an unintended consequence of registering, my FB feed is now deluged with ads for treatments, clothing, everything! Hah, serves me right.)
We know from Japan that Sofdra (ECCLOCK there) is effective at reducing symptoms for a good proportion of users, and so this product will make a worthwhile contribution. I've updated below the 9m YTD annual comparisons for Japanese ECCLOCK sales - it still appears to be growing into year 4, although growth is maturing, which it what you expect 3-4 years after launch.(Many differences in Japanese market to US, including no DTC marketing, so adoption curve likely to be different.)
One think in looking at the Japanese data is that it is highly seasonal, so presumably excessive sweating becomes a bigger issue in the summer months - looking at the data. And it is not clear to me if there is any correlation to Kaken's allocation to sales and marketing. For, example, they originally had very aggressive sales targets for year 1, dailled back in year 2, and now have modestly increased them again. So that will almost certainly have factored into their resource allocation decisions.
Source: Kaken Financial Reports
From my further trawling online in the US, it is clear that there is some awareness in the wider community. The source of information is often sufferers who have seen ads which are indeed front and centre of the home page of the IHhS website. A range of other treatments are spoken about among community members.
If I was to assess the "share of voice" of SOFDRA in community discussion, at this stage, I'd say it is perhaps 5-10% at most. Which is actually a good start at this stage. Some users comment that they are easily able to get reimbursement, although some are not sure when it is being rolled out. One said they'd give it a go for 6 months, as they've tried other treatments with variable success.
I would also say from reading the comments that a lot of sufferers appear highly motivated to want to try something that can help. I observed that there is little reference to QBREXA, which is the other anti-cholinergic that has been in the market for about 4 years, and is applied via wipes. The low "share of voice" appears consistent with its low sales.
So far, there is nothing definitive here one way or another to influence my view on what the launch is going to look like, But I thought it worth spending a few hours getting informed. It will at least give me some reference to assess what management say at the end of the month.
Disc: Held in RL and SM