Forum Topics TPW TPW 1H FY25 results
Bushmanpat
Added a month ago

The market has really embraced the latest results. I must admit, I'm not an analyst so I'm not able to give an in depth assessment of the financials, but one major takeaway is they are (only) at 2.9% of the furniture and homewares market share.

Tempted to sell some to take some profits, but also think the long term (5 yr plus) timeframe should see them get closer to double figure market share.

This has been a good learning stock for me. During COVID, it seemed to be on every fund managers radar. Then, as COVID subsided, they were all writing it off saying everyone has already bought their office chair, or the property market is going to crash with interest rate rises so nobody is going to move house and need new furniture.

While there things may be true, the inference that nobody would be buying always escaped me. With the office chair argument, yes everyone bought an office chair during COVID but a) they don't last that long, b) they probably didn't get the one they wanted just the one they could get and after sitting on it for a few years, got the sh*ts and decided enough is enough, time for a change.

and secondly, the tight mortgage market argument. I think that is a double edged sword. Yes, some people couldn't move to a new house and fill it with new furniture, but how many were saving for this scenario, had it taken from them and decided, if we can't get a new house, can we at least have a new couch.

Or, the silent mortgagors, who have a mortgage, but have it either paid down or under control so that a rate rise is inconsequential to their weekly budget. If these people want a new couch, they can buy one. And if they're in this scenario, they've probably had the same couch for years!

And the main argument is the fact that bricks and mortar can only stock so much. So if you're looking for a new couch (say) you might spend days going around to all the retailers and not finding "the one". But an online retailer like TPW can have thousands of models and one is likely to be "the one".

In accordance with my slothful investing style, I'm going to hold but it's been a cracker of a run these last days and months so welcome to having my thought balloon shot down.

Anyway, I know TPW isn't well supported in this place, but a 30% jump in two days at least deserves a mention.

DISC: held IRL and SM

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pdevries
Added a month ago

Having worked in online retail one of the things that really counts is the stickiness of customers. TPW customers who have had a great experience will keep coming back and then they continue to build their customer base, which helps you beat your competitors and increase your market share. They also seem to be using AI really well and that first mover advantage especially in online and the data bases they would have can really help them with their mktg, targeted offers etc. I'd suggest they have a long way to go.

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