New (premium) member

This stock seems "underloved" on Strawman, with only a few posts and only 5 people holding (including me)

I bought in a couple of months ago at around 75 cents

I am not going to post the full investment case. @Aaronfzr has already laid it all out - some good information there.

In short this company basically has one (very) promising drug potentially treating macular degeneration. There was a phase 2 trial around 5 years ago involving over 200 patients, which showed strong statistically-significant improvements when added to current standard-of-case treatment. Phase 3 trials (which will be definitive one way or the other) are due to report soon.

The reason that I am excited about this company is that I believe that there is a fairly high chance of success in the phase 3 trials. The current market cap is $1.25 billion AUD. Even if the trials only show a marginal benefit, or perhaps a benefit in certain subgroups, the company is almost certainly worth multiples of the current price. If there is a large benefit for a majority of patients with macular degeneration, it is possible to end up somewhere near the valuation that @Aaronfzr came up with.

Unfortunately the obvious big risk is that the trials do not show a benefit, in which case the company would be worth very little.

I'm not sure that articulating a precise valuation is useful. However the current price seems to imply a high chance of failure. Even moderately successful results would result in large gains and the best case would end up in the ballpark of $35.

I am not an ophthalmologist, but I do work in medicine and am used to interpreting clinical trial results. For what it is worth, I would personally rate the likelihood of some form of phase 3 success at 50-75%

On that basis, I believe that OPT is clearly undervalued