I've just completed my own analysis of the $DUR result.

The TLDR version, is that I agree with @Karmast. While there are some positive callouts, there are also some areas that are less impressive, so that overall this is a steady-as-she-goes kind of result and my only action is to stand back and let management get on with it.

The SP reaction (down 2.8% at the close) can be understood considering three factors, to each of which I've added some context:

1. Revenue is down 1.9% to PCP and profit growth is weak, saved mainly by a stellar contribution from the DDR JV (which of course itself benefits from cycling a weak result in the PCP) and good margin performance in some segments. However, CEO Chris Oates pointed out that it was up h-o-h , and also that 1H24 was a particularly strong result - both true).
2. The two major segments of Defence and Mining saw the significant fall in revenues: -21% and -14% respectively to PCP as we entered a period with several project completed and new major awards are still pending. Energy rose strongly (+68%) assisted by the contribution of the acquisition WPF to this segment. This underlines that without the acquisition, this would have been a much weaker result. So this is something to keep an eye on.
3. The SP has run up strongly over the last year. Even with today's fall in closing at $1.71, it is up from $1.20 following the result 12 months ago - 42%. I fully expected a pullback unless the result was going to be particularly strong ... particularly on a day like today, when any hint underperformance is getting slammed in some businesses.

I think what saved the day, is that despite revenue coming in at only 46.3% of FY guidance midpoint, $DUR is holding to FY guidance of $600-$640m, and EDBITDA $52-$56m, with the latter perfectly bracketing the analyst FY consensus.

When challenged on this, Chris stated that 80-85% of the work required in the second half EBITDA was work already in hand. A second insight, is that given the reasonably strong EBITDA contribution in the first half of $25.1m, hitting EBITDA guidance can be achieved at a lower margin. Who knows what the result will be, as it will largely depend on the mix across segements, and Chris said as much.

So things seem to be broadly on track for a reasonable year.

Pipeline

Looking longer term, I've updated my pipeline chart, showing pipeline elements as a fraction of FY Revenue. (For 1H FY25, I am assuming midpoint guidance of $620m revenue is achieved).

Overall it looks OK. Once more, the Order Book looks weaker than you'd hope for, however, Chris pointed out that this EXCLUDES MSA work. He also pointed out that of the tenders about one-third have some component of ECI involvement, which significantly increases the likelihood of an award.

The big element in the pipeline/ tender book are the suite of projects that lie in the $8bn of WA defence infrastructure supporting AUKUS, in which is included scope of work to prepare HMAS Stirling to be ready to receive nuclear submarines. To alleviate concerns potentially implied by some questions, Chris pointed out that there was a clear public commitment by Defence to have parts of these facilities ready for 2027, and if $DUR ECI involvement leads to contract awards, Chris is expecting delivery of this in FY26 (Note: ECI work is already under way by $DUR having been announced previously.)

Now while some my find that comforting, the words "Defence" and "Schedule Adherence" do not always sit well together in my experience. So, form your own judgement on that. Certainly IMO, one way or the other, decisions on these big defence contracts are the next significant SP catalyst for $DUR.

Figure 1: Pipeline

My Overall Takeaways

An "in-line with thesis" performance. Progress in engineering and construction firms is never linear, and half-on-half comparisons should be expected to be noisey. Today's result cycled a particularly strong 1H FY24, and within the report there are swings and roundabouts. So, I won't draw and conclusions one way or the other, beyond saying, let's see what the FY brings.

Valuation

My last valuation was $1.88 ($1.50 - $2.23), and I see no basis to revisit this until after the FY result.

Disc: Held in RL and SM