Forum Topics EGL EGL 1H FY25 Results

Pinned straw:

Added 10 months ago

$EGL closed down 15% today, and I think at some point they were down as much as 25%.

I attended the call today (but haven't written up my notes, as it has been somewhat of a deluge of results on my Watchlist today, and I wanted to focus my effort on analysing $DUR, which I've just written some overall comments on.)

$EGL's SP got whacked big time for the Baltec Project Execution stuff-up when it was announced last November, and today it was as if it got whacked all over again, largely for the same information - albeit the $1.2m cost blowout impact was made clear.

In terms of other bad things in the results, Clean Air segment has been hit hard by the down turn in lithium - again, hardly news. Quite wisely CEO Jason Dixon said they weren't waiting for lithium to recover and are exploring other areas to focus deploying this technology to. So, I guess that's the same as saying "don't expect much from Clean Air for a while".

And, yes, there was reduced margins in energy because they've brought on 10 people to support the large volume of service work they see coming over the horizon as they perform regular statutory checks on every boiler rated at over 2MW, in perpetuity.

But despite the downbeat report, the company is holding to the November issued guidance of FY25 EBITDA to grow by 10-15%.

At one point Jason said he was perplexed by the market reaction, because he thinks the business is doing pretty well.

So I think this is perhaps an issue of credibility. I believe Jason was a bit too relaxed is his words around the Baltec screw-up. At one point saying "someone made a mistake" ... "won't happen again".

But as I have said before, project execution is a world full of mistakes, a multitude of "unique mistakes that won't happen again". (If I had a $ for every project-screw-up-lesson-learned workshop or post-mortem I've run in my career,... well, I'd have even more to invest ;-) I once had a boss who was Deputy CEO of a global enegy company who vented at me once after a post-investment appraisal saying "I don't want to hear about learning lessons, I want the f****** our there to earn their wages and APPLY the lessons.".)

Most capital projects run significantly over budget and over schedule - there's no shortage of studies and stats. to bear this out. But unlike yesterday's call with Peter De Leo at $LYL where I came away with high confidence that the management team there knows who to assess and price project risk, Jason didn't give me the same confidence today. But all that said, I still feel like $EGL have been whacked twice for largely the same information.

I do consider that today's closing price givign a FY25 forward P/E of 16.5 makes the stock well-priced given the industry tailwinds (strong energy sector; water and waste - blue sky upsides essentially valued at $0). It is by no means cheap for an engineering and projects company, but it does have a strong component of recurring, maintenance-type revenue, which looks set to increase. And so I think this can easily justify a P/E in the 15-20 range.

So, I've added to my position in RL and SM.

How do I reconclile my concerns about project execution at $EGL and buying more? Easy. Most of $EGL projects involve deploying standard packages and solutions into client infrastructure. While of course every project is unique (witness the road transport loading miss in the Singapore Blatec project), the projects have more in common with prior projects than they are unique. And again, the research shows that repeat projects tend to do better on cost and schedule blowouts, because they are more amenable to learning. So EGL's technical project risk profile should be lower than a run-of-the-mill-engineering-and-construction-firm. Anyway, that's what I convinced myself of today before I hit the "BUY" button.

Keen to hear other holder views? And I need to look at the results more closely to see what I've missed.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Wini
Added 10 months ago

@mikebrisy I've previously written that my biggest concern with EGL was the poor cashflow, particularly the conversion between EBITDA and free cashflow for what is largely a capital light business. The main reason for this is the work in progress balance ("Contract Assets" on the balance sheet) which has steadily grown:

cf276c171c0a545c9aae403cb64416b0f406bc.png

(Note 1H25 revenue is the rolling 12 months)

The rising % of WIP to revenue is a concern but for me it simply feels too large of a balance for a business that purports to have 50% of revenue from maintenance (which shouldn't be subject to progress payments). I agree that the issues in the report were largely flagged (maybe totality of Clean Air downturn surprised some) but I think part of the sell off could be the market re-basing the valuation of EGL from earnings to cashflow.

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mikebrisy
Added 10 months ago

@Wini thanks for reminding me about your view on that, I had forgotten you'd written this!

On the face of it, this looks like it could be a concern. Are they being aggressive on revenue recognition? Is it a result of a change of mix in the contracts, e.g., for equipment intenstive contracts they might recognise a greater % revenue when equipment is procured? Or is there WIP in some non-performing contracts that are going to be written down at some point, in a "one off" "adjustment". Or are they just not good at managing receivables? But as you say, if the recurring revenue element is growing strongly, shouldn't the trend be in the other direction?

Whatever the reason, there is a trend here, and I will put in my notes to ask about it at the next investor call!

You explanation of a re-rating on declining earnings-to-cashflow is a good hypothesis to test over coming reports.

I'm keeping my position size modest here (RL 3.5%) as I don't really feel that I have the measure of management yet.

Another reason for small position size is that I want to manage my total portfolio exposure to engineering and construction companies. I currently hold $EGL, $DUR and $LYL with a total position size of 15%. This for a sector that generally doesn't deliver outstanding TSR over the long term. So I really am backing myself to pick winners here!

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Wini
Added 4 months ago

An update to this chart from the half year:

b09b11d37ba675df5f13ad88cda5992d03ba00.png

This is now a genuine problem for EGL to the point where at 30 June they had -$800k cash in the bank but have drawn $3.5m from their overdraft facility.

20% of revenue sitting as work in progress just doesn't align with what management are saying that over 50% of revenue is now recurring maintenance. This feels like aggressive revenue recognition to me, overstating earnings through the P&L.

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NewbieHK
Added 10 months ago

@mikebrisy My thoughts exactly! it really does feels like they have been punished twice. I also took the opportunity to top up IRL and in my SM portfolio.

In this instance I am reminded of a famous quote from Pele…”“Success isn't determined by how many times you win, but by how you play the week after you lose.” —Pele





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RogueTrader
Added 5 months ago

I see Bell Potter are still keen on EGL, with a PT of 38c:

"Environmental Group (EGL) EGL have multiple touchpoints in markets that are exhibiting strong structural tailwinds like in renewable energy and environmental sustainability. Favourable trends including landfill diversion, wasteto-energy solutions and air pollution control are set to drive EGL’s outlook. EGL’s PFAS treatment technology is proven to be cheap, safe and highly effective. We expect near-term contract wins within this business following the EPA license approval of its first commercial site, Reclaim Waste. We are expecting EGL to deliver double-digit EPS growth over the next three years and their high recurring revenue base provide a reliable earnings stream. Buy, Price Target $0.38"

I note that a few small cap managers have been building sizeable stakes recently, with no obvious big sellers. And JALIE 2 is the SMSF of Jason Dixon, the EGL CEO.

7f0b590bd2106218aac388cf3a6dc1f1ef4b3a.png

More of their June 2025 analyst picks here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/proxy/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBMlpPRFE9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--7058d383e0d4fbd8756a8d64992b39bbfc1e1c13/Analyst%20Stock%20Picks%20and%20Outlook_June%202025_Livewire.pdf

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