I can't find anything either @Rick, but I reckon it does have something to do with shorts declining and possible short covering. When a company is as shorted as this one is, being the third most shorted company on the ASX, and the shorts over recent timeframes have been declining, it wouldn't take much to spook those shorters and trigger such a short-covering rally.

source: https://www.shortman.com.au/

source: https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=IEL

Note: this data from shortman.com.au is 4 trading days old, scraped today, but represents the situation 7 days ago (4 days plus the weekend + today), see date below DGT on the 1st image is 23-Sep-2025 and also above right below the words "Current position".

The shorts have been declining, but still remained very high (13.14% a week ago) so it wouldn't take much to spook the shorters, even some insto or insider buying today might have sparked it, i.e. a short-covering rally.

@Rick its because i added to my SM holding and words out! lol. This has been a long, torturous story, as you know. I think there is a feeling that the bottom is in, shorts as far as i can tell are/have moved on. the result was ok but nothing signalled a strong reversal, but maybe a floor. Long-onlys are buying, the ones I look at anyway, with Auscap being the latest.

ive added over the last several months IRL, (and i do not like doubling down in broken stories, it's a way to ruin imo).i think there is much upside here over time, we will make our $ back, here's hoping anyway

no reason i can see why today stands out imo. daily moves are impossible to call

Thanks @Bear77 and @Solvetheriddle. I tend to agree on the short theory. I did another search looking for recent changes in student cap policy globally. I found nothing meaningful here either. However, sooner or later I think governments will realise that international students are a cash cow, and the game will be on trying to attract them back again! That’s right…hope isn’t a strategy! ;)

This is probably what's moving the stock - from CommSec

Jefferies says high-frequency data tracking web traffic for IELTS turned positive for the first time since June 2023. Brokerage adds rise in IELTS activity is seen as an early signal of a potential macro turnaround for co's broader student placement business.

Shares of IDP Education $IEL rise 17.3% to $6.64, their highest level since June 2. Broker Jefferies raises price target for IELTS English language exam joint owner to $8.60 from $5; upgrades rating to "buy" from "hold."

@Rick @Bear77 Hope this helps at least little....

News Summary DJ IDP's New Bull Sees Positive Signal in IELTS Web Traffic Data -- Market TalkIEL$6.545$0.885 (15.6%)$6.54$6.55

30 Sep 2025 09:32:46

1932 ET - IDP Education's new bull at Jefferies takes heart from IELTS web traffic data turning positive for the first time since June 2023.

IELTS is an English language test that is often taken by students seeking visas to study abroad.

These web-traffic data points offer early signs of a likely macro turnaround for IELTS, analyst Wei Sim says.

In turn, this would boost IDP's student placement business.

"In spite of other near-term potential negative catalysts on a one-year view we think macro will trump everything," Jefferies says. It upgrades IDP to buy from hold and raises its price target by 72% to A$8.60/share. IDP ended Monday at A$5.66. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

Interestingly @mikebrisy I looked at Shortman.com.au and IEL is one of their top listed shorted companies @ 12.34%.

Yes, @tomsmithidg IDP Education (IEL.asx) has been over 12% shorted for almost a year now, as shown below.

And the shorters should have made plenty of coin out of IEL as IEL's graph is all top left to bottom right, i.e. in a strong downtrend for the past two years.

The shorters are often right, but there's profit to be made when they're wrong and all trying to squeeze out through one exit door at the same time (known as a short squeeze).

Other companies that are regularly up at the top of the short list are lithium companies, uranium companies, plus companies with serious governance concerns who have already been smashed and may well have further to fall, such as MIN (the third most shorted company on the ASX 4 days ago, according to the list today) and casino operator Star Entertainment Group (SGR, @ #7).

It also pays to note that oftentimes these shorters are NOT ahead of the game, they often act more like ambulance chasers, in that they wait for a company to become very unloved by the market and they take the position that the selling has further to go than investors who are still in the company are anticipating.

Here's one example of that:

The net shorts were below 2% with DRO through until the second half of September, while the share price of DRO went into that serious downtrend back in July, so the majority of the shorters got onboard after the DRO share price had already dropped -$1, or -40% from its $2.50/share high.

I am not interested in DRO and never have been, however I do note that DRO's share price has recently risen +33% from 60 cps to 80 cps, and the shorts have not declined - if anything they've increased. Those shorters who got in at higher levels are still in the money, which would be most of them, but any that started shorting at around that 60 cps to 70 cps level may well have recently exited at a loss (covered their shorts) already.

What they're really looking for, in terms of a signal to pull up stumps, is anything that suggest the downtrend is over and a rebound is happening - back into an uptrend. In DRO's case, the recent +33% rally looks like a hiccup because of how far they'd fallen to get to 60 cps in the first place, so the shorters that are still in them are likely thinking it's a short term rally within a longer downtrend.

Like @mushroompanda (see here) and others, I do occasionally look at short levels but only to see if there's an additional opportunity there to make money during a short squeeze, and only after I've done my DD and decided to invest in a company based on my view of them and their future potential, both short and long term. In other words, if shorters are on the playing field in significant numbers, it's good to know, but is unlikely to change the way I play the game.