Pinned straw:
The end-of-day WTC chart sums up the position perfectly. An almost perfect Doji Cross candle, reflecting my own total indecision all day today. I ended up doing nothing. Volume today is noticeably larger that each of the last Oct and Nov 2024 cliff falls.
The next support for further drops is around 87.90, then 83.91, then 80.38.
Thursday will be white-knuckle-type interesting ...
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
@thunderhead I'm assuming the following. The findings of the investigation is about to be or has now been reported to the Board, so that there is price sensitive information known to a handful of people: all board members, and also employees of at least two professional services firms, as well as a host of interviewees.
We are now at a point where several things have to happen:
- The board has to consider and decide their stance on the report
- There is now a conversation to be had with RW, who will (I imagine) be given a right of reply
- There is then a decision on the future way forward, and as a c. 38% shareholder, one that ideally involves the support of RW
The scenario you highlight seem likely to me only if there was evidence in the investigation, including the most recent allegations, of criminal wrong-doing or at the very least, a serious breaking of company ethics / business values. Regarding the most recent allegations reported in the press, there is a hint that IF TRUE and substantiated, that is conceivable. But who knows, the press have been quite sensational in their reporting throughout.
Clearly, halting trading for two days before a weekend looks like it is designed to give the board time across 6 days (from Wednesday close to Monday open) to digest important information, and potentially seek to agree an outcome that can draw a line under all of this with RW and to the satisfaction of sahreholders.
One more point, regarding the most recent allegations. It is unclear to me how long these have been known. If they are fresh allegations, then it is highly unlikely the investigation would be in a position to make a recommendation that includes them. After all, lining up interviews and conducting them, and then following up the leads thrown up by the interview all takes time - weeks not days. Of course, just because the most recent allegations have only just appeared in the press says nothing about the timeframe over which they were made and came into the scope of the investigation.
This is precisely the scenario that caused me to reduce my exposure to $WTC by 50%. I explicitly assessed: "what capital am I prepared to have exposed to the risk that the situation with RW still goes pear-shaped." If, as you speculate, this turns out negative for RW and he ceases operational engagement with $WTC, then I imagine we are again looking at a short term 20-30% SP haircut.
But I then come back to the fact that this is a material business of 3,500 employees, mostly in product development, and with a truly global presence. After all, Apple thrived after Jobs, Microsoft after Gates, and even McDonalds after Kroc.
The vision and strategy for $WTC is compelling and clear, and the search for the new CEO is now be well-advanced. In fact, the new CEO job arguably becomes more attractive is RW is out of the way.
It will be interesting to see how the following hours, days and weels unfold!
