Forum Topics JIN JIN JIN valuation

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SudMav
Added 9 months ago

After my review yesterday I thought I would put the numbers through the McNiven formula and revisit some of my old notes on the company to see where this one landed.

Doing some reverse engineering and using NPAT circa $40m, expected dividend of 26c for final year and expected ROE of 33% (which is at the lower end of the analyst target range of 34-37) the current share price equates to a return of 9.4% and further justified my price target around $12.50 for JIN.

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Karmast
Added 9 months ago

Good summary of the earnings result and call @SudMav

I thought Mike and Jatin were frank, buttoned up and realistic about the current state of play and also the sensible, proactive things they are working on (like expanding their B2C options globally) to maximise the chances of future success.

It highlights how concentrated they still are on Aussie lotteries and why the ongoing diversification is a good thing.

It will be interesting to see if they resume the share buybacks after Fridays share price whacking. They hadn’t been buying back since early December, so this will be a sign on whether they see value again at the current valuation.

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SudMav
Added 9 months ago

Thanks @Karmast - Yeah to be honest last year was abnormally good with the 200m Powerball, but the growth compared to FY 23 is still pretty great from a revenue perspective

It wouldn’t surprise me if there was a blackout period while the reporting was being prepared and I’m confident they will restart the buyback

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Karmast
Added 9 months ago

And buybacks have begun again today. Make your own mind up on that but it does indicate Mike and the Board see more value in their own shares than deploying the surplus cash in other ways as at Feb 2025.

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SudMav
Added 8 months ago

I have slightly added to my position IRL on JIN at the current price. Whilst I'm surprised that management haven't bought back more at the current prices, Im guessing that they might have another acquisition on the cards in the coming months.

Either way, there has been an increasing number of jackpots over $15 mil this half, and another 70m ozlotto this coming Tuesday, which is driving up TLC the past few days but surprisingly JIN has not had the same love.

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