Pinned straw:
@Parko5 Yes, you are correct.
The CEO has little skin in the game beyond this scheme. And it is starting to look like the July 2025 Tranche will lapse, there being no material catalysts I can imagine in the intervening time. (Other than a takeover ... in which case, presumably the whole lot can vest!)
We discussed here some time ago that the scheme created good alignment with shareholders, and (at a time when I had a strong conviction for this business) I was confident that it would act to retain Swami. While I know nothing about his personal circumstances, after over 20 years at J&J in senior positions, you'd think he'd be reasonably well off.
But of course, I've always sensed that he is someone who is very mission-driven. It was his personal initiative to take Novosorb to India. It was never on DW's and the Board's agenda prior to Swami's arrival. (Unless it was, and they didn't tell us, and that's why they hired him!)
During his final years at J&J, Swami was the Global Senior Vice President for Vision Care, which is an important player in the Indian market. So Swami has experience of leading a successful business in India, as well as his business unit leadership in India, South Korea and Indonesia earlier in his J&J career.
So it was with particular concern that I noted his articulation of just how difficult the Indian hospital procurement system is to navigate. This isn't a new learning from him. He already knows this from his experience over two decades. Rather, he was doing this to educate shareholders, and I imagine he has had to run the same script with DW and the Board over recent months.
My question is, did he let them know how difficult it would be before they made the decision over two years ago to parachute in a team of 20, and give it the profile they did? For example, they spent a fair bit of effort deploying their KOL Prof Marcus Wagstaff to India, going to conferences and training surgeons.
I was always sceptical about India. Medical device budgets are a small fration of that in developed markets, although it is true the healthcare system is very bifurcated between the public and private systems. However, a 10% area burns treatment can run north of $50,000 ( in western market terms).
So, India grew by 70-something % to pcp. But it is such a small base that it hasn't been disclosed and hasn't begun to move the not very large dial of RoW. When UK! and Germany were in their early days, the growth rates were well north of 100%!
So why am I going into all this detail?
Well, I think the Indian initiative is very much Swami's, and with slowing overall global growth and a depressed SP, the conversation in the Board could start to turn in another direction about CEO performance.
That's why I think he has been working hard internally to reset the narrative to "25% forever". Because if they can do that with decent margins, then according to my model, you can get back to a $2.50 valuation.So you are right. If he truly can hit that, then both he and PNV shareholders can succeed.
The billion dollar question, is can they sustain c. 25% revenue growth? I don't have an answer, but I am skeptical.
To conclude, the risk is that 1) if financial incentives start to drift out of reach, and 2) India gets permanently bogged down in procurement hurdles (which after all are a mechanism to help control limited resources!) is there a risk that we see a CEO succession (jumps or pushed?)
Idle speculation, but it was you who raised the question of incentives! And it had been going through my mind too.