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Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/acadia-pharmaceuticals-reports-fourth-quarter-210500883.html

A positive result for Daybue sales from Acadia just released. Q4 sales ”$96.7 million and full year 2024 net product sales of $348.4 million”.

This meets higher end of Acadias guidance for the full year.

Hopefully Acadia has set a more conservative full FY 25 guidance this time: “Daybue net sales guidance of $380 to $405 million”

Canada sales and possibly early European revenues should add to this.

Hopefully Neuren’s share price starts to rise accordingly after being beaten down for so long.

Held IRL and SM

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Nnyck777 I agree this is a very positive result.

Given the careful language at JP Morgan in Janaury about a "Return to Growth in H2 CY25" I was worried we'd be at the low end,... or even a miss!

Midpoint of 2025 guidance is +12% y-o-y, so the $500m sales milestone is now well and truly out of reach in my view. (I had it as a slim possibility for 2026 or 2027, but I think the product will be in decline by then in the US, but of course Europe will be in full swing my then.)

The last 4 q-o-q growth rates have been: -12.9%, 11.5%, 7.8%, and 6.0%. So the declining rate is stabilising, and we will not see the benefit of the 30% sales force expansion until H2 CY2025. (as they push into the 70% of the market beyond the CoEs).

Coming back to 2025 guidance, I think new CEO Catherine Owen will have been very careful with this. Furthermore, they now have 18 months commercial experience with the product. To hit midpoint, they only require less than 1% q-o-q growth. Of course, maybe 1Q will be another seasonal low, so they may well need the headroom.

I'm catching up with the recording and transcript later today, as I didn't attend this morning.

Importantly, for me, this puts a solid base back under my "2-for-the-price-of-1" investment thesis!

So the spotlight is back on April and NNZ-2591!

Disc: Held in RL and SM.

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