Pinned straw:
Today the co released that the MSC (Mobile Seatbelt Contract) contract for NSW has been renewed after it was retendered. The term is longer at 5+1+1yrs under the main framework agreement.
The initial project orders (PO) are $8.94m (ex-GST) and operate under a 2+1+1yr term. Tbh, I’m not sure why this would be contracted differently but from the prior option pick up under the prior contract, its seems to be a way business is done.
LfL the initial orders would be the equiv of ~$49m over 5 years versus the prior contract being ~$42m over 5 years noting the main difference is that the $42m did not include switching on seatbelt as that was done 5mths before the end of the prior contract. ACE did not specify a value in the release but I think on a latter call it was determined that it would be ~10-20% revenue uplift on an annualised basis. Multifunction has higher GM so it was a backsolve in extra revenue to take GMs form 40s into 50s so from the perspective of adding on a function later, ACE flicks a "switch" to turn it on so the GM on the incremental revenue is effectively 100%.
As such, this implies under the prior deal, the annualised revenue rate was potentially ~$8.5-8.6m (ex-GST) thus implying the new PO of $8.94m (ex-GST) is largely a rollover + minor scope changes/inflation. The image below shows some working out of this.
The release today ;eft many Qs open and the contract hasn't been published yet. It could take a day or two or weeks so this is an exercise in thinking and testing numbers until confirmation can be sought.
Given the term of the new framework agreement is longer than the initial project orders, I suspect NSW is working on broadening deployment and maybe use ACE for things like average speed (note ACE will do this with the same trailers in WA). Below is from the roadmap 2026 doc and a recent ministerial release which I think I linked in my update on the speed contract.
This doesn't change my valuation as I had a figure for this included. 1H25 also hasn't changed much either.
Took up a position recently, i see great opportunity moving forward.
Wanted say a thanks for you comprehensive and knowledgable posts.
Thanks again for the update @BkrDzn . I was having a scroll through NSW tenders to try and work out the finer details of this announcement this morning and like you will continue to play the waiting game to see the release..
In my searches I did stumble across some other tenders that have recently been awarded in NSW. My interpretation is that the additional point to point cameras were awarded to Ceos Industrial Pty Ltd as the contracts were to trial average speed cameras for private vehicles in two regional areas.
I know that Austroads are doing a trial on Average Speed Cameras at some point this year, and Acusenus could still be in the running if the trial with CEOS doesn't go well.
I agree that opening the contract up does provide future opportunities for enforcement, which could also include the opportunity to bring them in line with the new WA contract with Auto Number Plate Recognition for Uninsured/Unlicenced offences and Speed or Average Speed offences if configuration allows .
They did mention something about the new generation of AI enforcement in the announcement, so this could have also contributed to the uptick in revenue from 8.3 to 8.9m.
I agree that this announcement doesn't change my overall valuation by much, however it gives me much further certainty in my modelling the future revenue and cements a solid 2027 will be once all the WA/NSW/SA/NZ cameras are operational
Hey @actionman whilst the sums and info from the original post aren't mine, the TCV figure represented above is for all contracts Worldwide. If you have a look at the recent slide deck this month (here) you can see the overall contracts in view.
Its great that there is a point of differentiation and how CEOS can differentiate the vehicle for enforcement. I don't however see this as a stumbling block for Acusensus, as they have video footage of the vehicle travelling between the different points that can be used as evidence to show the offence (some legislation changes may be required in states to enforce this and bring video evidence into the mix). Enforcement agencies have access to NEVDIS and can search registrations across the country to make sure that the make, model and number plate are correct for the vehicle that committed the offence.
While they may not be looking promising in NSW, Acusensus definitely aren't out of the running for future P2P contracts across AUs, and my understanding is that this is part of their contract with WA. For me the main critical point for P2P superiority is the trial being undertaken by Austroads. Depending on the findings the recommendations they put forward, it could be about who already has this capability, or who can develop it quickly to get to where it needs to be.
Edit: Link updated