Thanks @Saiton

Which of the funds have updated their valuations? Wouldn't they come out soon after the audited results?

They did. I only have record of three:

Macquaries from $2.85 to $2.80

Wilsons to $1.85 (I think from around $3.00)

Bell Potter to $2.80 from $3.00

Overall: average TP (min, max, n)

Before: $2.59 ($1.15, $3.00, 9)

After: $2.31 ($1.15, $2.85, 9)

Completely different reaction than the market.

Wilsons I can get my head around. Macquarie and Bell Potter, I cannot.

Hi @mikebrisy, well I have been using this technique now for a year and I have found that in general the maket will mostly follow the Fibonacci level's I have been explaining as default (+ or - not always perfect) levels depending on how the market feels regarding the particular stock its being applied to (& funnily enough also applies to the price targets the brokerage firms publish land right on these Fib levels too). Then added on top of that is news. News can obviously turn a stock around in the opposite direction to the current trend it has been tracking. NEWS TRUMP TECHNICALS. Once the news is in and the market decides where it will take the prices to, it then settles back into the Fibonacci levels again.

So lets say a stock is in an uptrend and depending on the timing where it is in its cycle looking over all the time frames on the stochastic indicator you will get a feel what it should do over the next couple of weeks without any news.

So for this example, lets say its rising for the historically strong W3 up.

Now i will give you 3 scenario’s within this wave (remembering all waves are made up of a subset 5 waves)

Scenario 1 The price is currently working in w1 up ofW3

and great news arrives - $ will usually pick up its pace and sometime blast through fib target points. This can get tricky then to know exactly what to expect following on however usuall you pick up how the market is looking at it in the next 5 of so bars

and good news arrives - $ will continue on its merry way up

and poor news arrives - $ it may turn around and break the thesis of the fibs and then you will need to re-calibrate them. Alternatively If the market has already beaten it down quiet a bit then it may just wiggle sideway in a range for some time in anticipation.

Scenario 2 The price is currently working on w4 down ofW3

and great news arrives - $ turns around completely and starts on w5ofW3 with gusto

and good news arrives - $ stalls and then continues down to complete w4 down before starting w5ofW3 up

and poor news arrives - $ picks up pace and pushes lower than the usual Fib levels and may completely change the count we are up too which happened on IEL recently

Scenario 1 The price is currently working in w5 up ofW3 and basically at the usual W3 fib level

and great news arrives - $ will push higher by additional levels past the usual 161.8% fibonacci level (sometimes by loads if the market is really hyped about the stock, resulting in huge PE ratios over time, DRO over recent 6 month)

and good news arrives (news that shows the compnay is improving steadily) - May push a little higher though short lived and stock should still drop looking for W4 down

and poor news arrives - $ fall short of the W3 target and about turns with gusto depending on how bad the news is and also how the market feels

So most of the time I believe Analysis should be looked at

1st Market Sentiment (over all market and then the individual stocks sentiment)

2nd Technicals

3rd News / Company Financials

Now I know everyone will go crazy about that order, however,

2nd and 3rd to interchange with each other and are very close with each other

eg If a companies results are good and i see its at the top of its cycles especially if at the top of the 3day and weekly stochastic indicators then the news better be outstanding for me to hold the stock as its well and truely due for retrace W4 down which should be approx 38.2% of the last majoer wave up.

I see comments regularly when news comes in the company is tracking well however it drops, Well when i go to have a look, its usuall sitting at the top of it cycle and in need of a retrace / correction. If i wasnt doing technical analysis and bought in on the good news (which i used too) then i may be dissapointed when it drops soon after and I need to hold for a period of time until it completes the w4 down. Some panic and sell near the bottom of the w4 and tghey just feel its always goibg opposite to there trades.

I have been paying attention to Stock investing psychology for years now and I see it in people trades frequently, and thats what make the marked right.

Hope this all helps. If its too much or confusing, i will attempt to explain it in a video clip

@Saiton got it. So, as I understand it, in the method the news sets the change of direction, but the levels describe the trajectory the price follows, with the various waves, etc.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.