@Nnyck777 Yeah there is really nothing new here at all.

They are keeping their cards close to their chests.

At the same time, it is very early days. The sales team has only been on the ground for 5-6 weeks, the rest of the plan is still rolling out.

I hope so, it would be underwhelming if they underdeliver.

With all the noise I just keep thinking back to the Kaken numbers, they did roughly 110,000 units year one with their low refill rate and a TAM roughly half the size, even if we double this to account for population (actual population multiple is 2.6) and maybe another 2x multiple for refills even though we are confident of 8-10 refills per individual that gets you to 440,000 units year 1. (110,000 x 2 x 2)

$450USD / unit is $198m in annual revenue, we are on a similar timeline to Kaken were, they launched 5 months before their EOFY and we have done similar, Feb launch for June EOFY.

The numbers above don't really account for any substantial gains through the digital campaign which could be direct sales or driving people to dermatologists.

I'm assuming they are being very quiet possibly thinking themselves don't count your chickens before they hatch even though almost every way you look at it there should be a huge success coming.

Where do you guys think they will land revenue wise vs the Euroz / EP reports?

@Arizona @Nnyck777 I agree. I think they are buying as much time as they can before giving sales numbers, so that they don't drive extreme volatility.

So, for example, scripts in the first few weeks via the online channel will be almost meaningless. There will be many (hundreds, thousands?) of highly motivated patients who will move quickly to get their hands on the product. How quickly this "bolus" dissipates cannot be predicted, so it would be incredibly dangerous to try and form any guidance at all from a few weeks of data. (Maybe there is data on demand dynamics via e-channel product launches ... in fact, there almost certainly is.)

We saw this happen with DAYBUE at $ACAD. They had really high volumes in the first two quarters because of the highly motivated patients being treated in centres of excellence once the drug became available. This led to them issuing unduly optimistic guidance, which when they missed, the SP tanked. It has taken about a year for things to stabilise.

I know it is a completely different disease, different population, different drug, but the principle is the same I think.

There could be huge danger in forming an assessment on a few week's data. Hopefully, by April, they have 4-5 months of data from those on the patient experience program (Q. Do you intend to continue taking Sofdra?). Secondly, after the e-channel has been open a couple of months, the initial burst of requests might have stabilised.

Of course, if it bombs, we'll know by April, and then they'll have to decide how much Sales and Marketing effort is warranted.

Early days, Paitence is key. But expect volatility.

Overall, $BOT management are doing precisely what I'd expect them to be doing.

That makes a lot of sense Mike

@mikebrisy It does appear to show a certain restraint when compared to BIO for example.

I have been disappointed to not have received feedback on the PEP.

For what ever reason, they decided that that giving over this info was not helpful.

However, we are almost at a point where that data is no longer relevant, as real world sales numbers are on the way.