@Strawman such a relief to hear that! I just watched the Stockhead video, and without intending to be rude to the interviewer, it was clear their questions were scripted by Howie (or his sidekick). Either that, or they were lurking on our Forum discussion here yesterday about the refill process! (C'mon Matt or Howie or Stockhead, reveal your Strawman handles!)
But seriously ...
@Arizona @Schwerms @Ipsum video answered (implied but pretty clear to me) the question about the process of refill. As @Ipsum uncovered, the patient will get a text notification that the refill is about to be sent. If they have stopped using it, they'll probably click STOP or EDIT. Which does mean that there will be some flow of product into the market that gets paid for but never used (like all drugs!) With such a process, it would reasonable to get 8-10 refills a year knowing that a proportion of paitents find little benefit and/or don't like the side effects and will give up, and will terminate their refill program.
And that makes the big difference between the US and Japan (as other have noted here). In Japan consumption seems to be highly seasonal around the summer months, and patients typically get a script with one refill, so staying on the product requires much more inconvenience,. i.e., trips to the Doctor.
A trip to the Dr is a "cost" - both time and money. We know the benefits of SOFDRA are partial and variable, so in the US if the e-platform and 12-refills lowers the "total cost" to the patient, they will be more likely to stay on the drug, as the cost-benefit equation gets nudged towards continuation.
Of course the value in the US is so much greater because SOFRDA's all-in cost for 30-days in 10x the cost of 30-days on ECCLOCK in Japan. Yes, that's right 10X. (No wonder Trump and RJK vent so much about Americans getting ripped off! I'm very happy for Trump to stay focused on steel tariffs.))
So, if for each patient onboarded, 8 to 10 out of 12 refills actaully happen, that would be an astounding commercial success.
I'll continue the rest of my insights from the recent videos on the other Forum ("Commercial Update") when I've completed my analysis... sooner or later. But I am trying to get my eye in for the first sales report in April.