Forum Topics WTC WTC WTC valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

Solvetheriddle
Added 9 months ago

@Chagsy , I have a couple of points, and we have discussed this many times on this site: What is a relevant weight? People talk about different measures. % of total wealth is perhaps the most useful, but few use it. They use a "fund," which could be anything. The relevant exposure is very different. 4% look high to me, but that si because my equity investments are, by far, my largest asset. Sometimes that disclosure is disingenuous, and other times it is not.

Putting that to one side, looking at WTC, i disagree with Mike i think RW is still a major factor because the task for WTC and TAM are still large, very large, that is the main difference i can see between WTC and PME for instance. WTC still needs a quarterback, imo, maybe a really strong technical board (good luck there-- you mainly get DEI boards nowadays) could fill the position. The bench is very good, but the task they are after is vast. That is what makes WTC interesting, but execution, market assessment and product flexibility are still more of a factor where i think RW is still key. PME looks more of a copy right.

if RW suddenly left, it would threaten my longevity and certainly my conviction in the holding.

32

mikebrisy
Added 9 months ago

@Solvetheriddle you've pulled me up on a good point about portoflio weight.

10% of my RL ASX equity portfolio is about 0.8-0.9% of my total asset base. I'm not exactly betting the farm on $WTC and RW! There is no way I'd put 10% of my overall asset base on the business, on any other single ASX company for that matter.

If we saw a rapid and uncontrolled exit of RW then, yes, I'd be out. But I will be happy to see him put a succession plan in place.

Actually, I am happy that RW is in operational control for now. Actually, I've breathed a massive sigh of relief. CTO has been a big investment several years and several acquisitions in the making. I can accept they are going slower now for faster forever, but I need to see some signs in the next 12 months that the product is putting some runs on the Board. On balance, we've been there before, so I am giving the team the benefit of the doubt.

On governance, I don't want a board that will get involved in detailed technical matters, other than asking relevant questions to test management (so, yes there should be some technical currency). I want a strong, technically and commercially capable management team with a good CEO to focus on that.

I do want a Board with diverse, international, business experience, relevant to the sector. For example, a former CEO of a global logistics firm would be a great pick, or an ex-Exec of one of the big incumbent industrial software players like Oracle or SAP. That's what I am used to seeing in mega-cap land - Non-Execs who can really add real substance to the big strategic questions. I've had the privilege of witnessing first hand what real Board heavy-weights can add to the quality of Executive strategic thinking and decision-making. Its a whole different level of conversation compared with what you get from a bunch of "governance professionals" that are there to tick boxes in the Annual Report. With the greatest of respect to the departed Non-Execs, they weren't that, and so I don't mourn their passing. I hope RW takes this opportunity to add some quality to the Board, but I'm not sure how highly he values this, so let's see what happens.

41

Solvetheriddle
Added 9 months ago

Cant disagree with any of that, i feel most founders err to box tickers and yes-men on the board. For board members its a balance of providing support, experience and judgment and not being a wannabe ceo.. as you say let's see what happens.


held --small at this stage

24

Chagsy
Added 9 months ago

Good points @Solvetheriddle

For clarity, 4% of super is <1% total. Mentally, I treat super as my total investable wealth as the other assets are not liquid. Somewhat arbitrary, but that’s my framework.

This probably makes me more conservative than I need to be with respect to my choice of equities. I don’t think I will go above 5%, after some reflection.

26
mikebrisy
Added 9 months ago

@Chagsy I’m of a similar view. The lingering governance concerns have me maxed out at 5% RL even though I have a very high conviction that $WTC is worth more today and will continue to grow strongly. (I’d prefer to be back at 10% at these prices).

I expect that over the next year, the Board renewal will be fleshed out (hardly rocket science), eventually RW will appoint a CEO-successor. This is harder, and he will rightly take his time to find the right person, unless there is an internal candidate, which would of course be great.

I believe the concern about the criticality of RW leading the build out into adjacent functionality is completely overblown. The vision is clear, One Platform to Rule Them All (Global Logistics-OS). There is already a crowded, fragmented universe of software solutions across the entire domain. $WTC just has to carefully build out, making the correct make or buy decisions, and selecting the best “tuck in” acquisitions to accelerate building the capability. They’ve already been at this for a while, so a lot of the leaders on the team know what good looks like, and they have proven their ability to absorb acquisitions. I just don’t believe sustained success is dependent on RW.

Of course, as long as he is there, he is a totemic figure and the organisation will follow his leadership and defer to him for the strategic decisions. And, who knows, with good health he might be able to run for another decade. And a positive from this shambles of the last 6 months is that it will have caused him to think deeply about what an orderly succession roadmap looks like. Despite his manifest weaknesses, RW is an avid learner. Of that I have little doubt. Legacy will become his obsession, if it isn’t already.

Disc: Held in RL only

39