@Solvetheriddle Yes all valid questions. Mike has shared for sometime now that the jackpots are cyclical and if you have a great half / year, then the next half / year is often slower. Reversion to the mean at work! So, they are in a down year at present and hence are likely doing more marketing. That said they continue to take share from newsagents and that's a multi year / decade process most likely.

All of that said the main lotteries part of the business in Australia is maturing. My guess it grows single digit from here but is pretty reliable. And the current Internationals are also going to grow single digit most likely.

So yes, they need to add on a new double digit growth driver and I suspect that's what's happening with the U.S. exploration. Depending on the price paid this could be risky or it could be very rewarding.

My current valuation of $18 is based on them delivering around 10% p.a. growth at a PE of 25 for the next 5 years, so there is some work to be done but it's not overly aggressive in my estimation.

As a holder here and irl, it’s looking more like margins are also reverting back to the mean for JIN. I agree that growth is going to be a bit more subdued, and I’m hoping that the change in marketing approach builds the customer base

From my perspective there a few main risks coming over the few years which will impact my thesis:

1 - TLC does not win the tender for Victorian lotto in 2028 resulting in significant reduction in revenue and potential loss of Tasmanian revenue (it’s linked to qld and vic).

2 - the increasing premium on lottery tickets applied when purchasing on Jin compared to the Lott. You get a free entry into some draws for that premium (weekly winners), however with the Lott improving its user experience, customers may move across to the cheaper platform when the Powerball and Saturday lotto price increases come along.

3 - TLC decide to not continue the reseller agreement partnership with JIN. Mike has been consistent that this is a mutually agreeable solution, however with the TLC CEO retiring at the end of the year, he will have some heavy lobbying to do with the new appointee to prove their value

Hoping that these risks are quite low, however I’m monitoring updates to see how user numbers are progressing.

I think point two is pertinent. TLC has improved a lot. I use it; it's seamless, unlike a few years ago. So share gains here will be harder or none at all. the big contract risks are there and have been fora long while, significant outcome smallish possibilities.

Great insights thanks @Karmast for sharing.

Interested to see where they go with acquisitions given they might be a little gun shy after the recent issues.