Forum Topics CAT CAT FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

This should hopefully at least mean "no negative surprises" ... otherwise, a really saying-nothing-new statement.

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l1l1l1
Added 8 months ago

Its probably going to be asked on Thursday, may as well get it done before hand

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Bear77
Added 8 months ago

Also, the ASX compliance people at these companies are probably going to err on the side of caution in relation to their continuous disclosure obligations, so anything prepared for a select group of investors - such as a presentation at an Investor Day - is probably best shared ASAP with the entire market via the ASX announcements platform. Better safe than receiving a "please explain" from the ASX later.

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actionman
Added 8 months ago

Was anyone at the investors day? Market didn’t like something ????

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mikebrisy
Added 8 months ago

@actionmanI agree it would be great to get some "Field Reports" from the StrawPerson or StrawPeople who attended.

I've had a quick look through the slide deck and in addition to their TAM and long term-financial framework, they've added a new framework for how they get to 10X, via land and expand. (At least, I think this is the first time I seen this one).

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Of course it is very aspirational and long term (read the fine print), but I have to say that it is not inconsistent with the strong tailwinds blowing in sports + technology + entertainment.

The track record, financial framework, industry trends and TAM and this slide really capture the core elements of my thesis for $CAT.

I think it also puts to rest the question we've raised again in the last couple of days .... I don't think we're going to see a resurgence of Prosumer any time soon. It will take all of their energies and every ounce of resource to crack this Pro Sport opportunity. Why mess around where Apple, Garmin, Fitbit are going to play?

As to the SP reaction today,... I just see it as completely in line with the risk-off, NASDAQ-led, Trump-inspired-tariff-tantrum, and nothing company specific.

Maybe some added grumpiness about the lack of specificity in guidance. Go figure!

But I am happy to be corrected by those who were in the room today!

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lastever
Added 8 months ago

I was one of the Strawpeople at the Catapult presentation today. Here's some brief feedback while I gather my thoughts. Thanks to @Strawman for the opportunity to attend.

@actionman The presentation only started at lunch time, while the price dip was in the morning. So if that was company-news specific, it would have to have been some aspect of the slide-deck, not the live presentation. I think the price action over the next few weeks might be a better indication of sentiment, as the fundies who attended make some decisions. Also, since part of the presentation was about product update/launches coming in April and was pretty bedazzling, even if you had found some reason to be grumpy (which I didn't), I would wait until then to trim.

The CEO, CFO and the Product Guy each presented. As you inferred @mikebrisy it was all about the professional teams, and how Catapult intend to get from the current 3000-odd teams to 5000 and beyond, and how they can earn an increase in annual spend per team from $20k to $100-150k.

Do read the slides, but importantly:

  • tech adoption in athletic performance and team coaching is still surprisingly early, penetration of professional teams is only 20% (mostly Catapult)
  • the lead is Catapult's to maintain, winner will take most (but never all), Catapult has by far the most data (which is the gold)
  • cross-selling/expanding has only begun, and teams subscribing to more than one vertical have the lowest churn (1%)
  • the 'Moneyball moment' hasn't happened yet, when a team figures out how to use this tech to win their league unexpectedly. When it does, everyone else will be forced to adopt.
  • The product developments will take some time to go through, but what can I say....duly impressed....
  • There's a distinction between the wearables and the video products in terms of who them are competing against. Integrating the two gives them their edge. I'll try to elaborate on that later.
  • They don't view the upcoming product upgrade cycle as an appropriate moment to increase fees. They want to become essential.
  • The CFO said 'Rule of 40' about 5 times in 2 minutes. While they must always invest in RnD, costs are under control, margin should head toward 30% and, once they double revenue, it should stay there. There was a cute little back-and-forth between CEO and CFO about if margin could be pushed further.
  • Catering was top-notch. It's a buy from me.



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mikebrisy
Added 8 months ago

@lastever thanks for the notes. Great! Wished I could have been there.

I think $CAT is one to watch: market leader, global market, multiple tail winds, headroom on both new customers and cross-sell, innovation potential, clear and compelling financial and strategic framework to measure against, CEO with growing credibility, … overall hitting its straps.

As with every business, progress will ebb and flow, so I’m sure there will be opportunities to add more in future. So I’m not topping up today, but will with continued good execution.

Disc: Held

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Strawman
Added 8 months ago

Great stuff @lastever, appreciate the update.

It's always nice when a company can raise prices, but I think it's right to focus on adoption at this (still early) phase.

Under the old leadership they copped so much (well deserved) flak for poor cost control,. clearly that feedback was well and truly received as they really have embraced the whole rule of 40 thing. While you can be too dogmatic with these things, its a good framework for them.

Anyway, there's a long way for them to run, and the market is theirs to lose. Happy to have it as a major holding.

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