Arghh. You're absolutely right @mikebrisy I hadn't converted to AUD! Probably because it landed so close to the current market price haha

You're right too in that the share count growth is probably too generous.. the 20% thumb-suck definitely undercooks it given the performance shares.

I'm away from the desk, but my hunch is that one mistake should more than cancel out the other to leave an even higher valuation. Or is that wishful thinking..? Lol

I'll update it when I get the chance. Thanks for the heads up.

No worries, Even though we were using completely different methods - it was driven off similar revenue and top level margin assumptions so, first I thought "yay, @Strawman's thumb suck is in my (very wide!) range" but then I realised I was still in USD.

The insight here, however, is that we are seeing another time arbitrage opportunity. If we really believe that $CAT can sustain its position in this global, growing market, then the fun has only just begun! I wonder if Will's financial framework will stand the test of time?

I'll write up my valuation next week. I've got crossed-eyed trying to work between the Statutory Actuals and Will's "Management EBITDA" framework, so I'm still not confident with my numbers.

FWIW's - Canaccord Genuity attended the session yesterday and, according to @Jimmy 's regular feed:

"The growth strategy outlined at Catapult Group International's investor day impresses its bulls at Canaccord Genuity, who see the sports-tech provider doubling its annualized contract value by 2028. Canaccord's analysts tell clients in a note that Catapult's growth in ACV, which is seen by the company as its key leading indicator of revenue, will generate high incremental margins. They anticipate 2028 Ebitda of US$30 million against a backdrop of continued best-in-class customer retention ratios. Canaccord Genuity raises its target price by 20% to A$4.20 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 1.3% at A$3.495. ([email protected])"

... so it looks like they've upped their 2024-2028 revenue CAGR to 20%, whereas only a couple of years ago they had 2025/2024 at +11%.

Looking at the broker consensus, revenue growth for the next 3 years is: +21%, +16.2% and +13%, hence the consensus SP = $3.83 being well below Canaccord, and lots of room for upgrades if they can outperform this trajectory.

Equally, with everyone upgrading as they follow the share price up, we could find a situation where revenue undershoots expectations, because in the last 3 years, H2 doesn't add that much more over H1. So in May, if that happens, I intend to top up, all things being equal.

This is actually a systematic feature of analysts only using a 3-year forward horizon. To chase the SP in the TP's, they eventually over-ramp the short-term growth, which then creates the "miss" ... and the buying opportunity.