So true @mikebrisy -- it’s wild how just a small tweak in assumptions can totally reshape the outcome. Same is true with all the important inputs you could use -- Change a 12% revenue CAGR and a 7% margin to 10% and 5%, and over a long enough runway, you’re suddenly landing in a completely different financial universe.

That's why I tend to keep things pretty simplistic. As long as the main assumptions are generally true, you tend to get something that is helpful (which is all you can hope for really)

Growing that ACV at 20% for 13 years is going to be some feat if they achieve it. More likely there will be some serious potholes on the road there, and the market will overreact to those, creating potential opportunities if punters are brave enough to take advantage of them!

Seems CAT is less affected by the Tariff news than other tech names

Do we know if CAT management provided any commentary around Trump Tariffs?

I also don't really follow sports that much so virtually clueless why you need a device to measure everything to order to stay competitive in sport and how this is big money especially when now we have got a perfect storm happening.

And importantly would sports be more popular and earn more money If we are heading to recession in the US?

Hi edgescape I work for a big food retailer the Melbourne based one. One thing i learnt very early in my career was that when things are tough people turn to life's little luxuries read good chocolate, better quality cooking ingredients, nice wine etc. The one thing I think we can count on during tough times is people will be looking for sport to provide relief from the constant stream of bad news and tough times.

Good points@pdevries, and to put it more basically - sports leagues keep running during recessions! @edgescape What teams spend on Catapult is minuscule compared with say transport and hotels. I doubt teams earn more in downturns, but it doesn't matter in this case.

@lastever

@pdevries

Some good points there

I used to be a tennis fan but lost interest after trying to get into Wimbledon and just got bored of watching tennis played in general.

The idea of sports creating inspiration in depression is plausible I guess though. One example is Bradman.

But then those times were probably different compared to now. We are constantly distracted by other things beside sport and looking for other ways to be productive

Also I am a bit worried they didn't provide any impact on pricing for any of their devices. Apple for instance already flagged increases for some items.

Personally, I wouldn't underestimate the power of sports and sporting teams and the tribalism it creates and is followed in the wider community @edgescape. Any streaming sport is the jewel in the crown for content providers, which is why Foxtel was always so careful about what they bundled with sport, as it would always sell (at a premium) and why Kayo is lapped up by Aussies for >$35/month.

I remember how desperate some punters were for sports during early COVID lockdowns, with some sports channels even streaming Ukranian (or somewhere over there) soccer/football and betting agencies opening books for betting on the same games as nothing else was available worldwide.

I also remember the pure joy when Peter V'landys was the first sporting chairman to get government approval to play sport again (NRL) by using lockeddown training & games, with the AFL following his model shortly thereafter. Some administrator that V'landys, heading both the ARL and Racing NSW simultaneously. Must have the knack of being able to delegate down to a tee. Also has been known to swim in high political circles due to his huge connections in both sports. So yes, IMHO, sport is part of our fabric at every level (as it is in a lot of other countries) and that all bodes well for Catapult long-term

@lowway Thanks I appreciate the tailwinds that media generates for sport

But it doesn't answer the impact of tariffs for the devices they manufacture and distribute.

I think the best answer is we don't know, but that it's safe to assume that Catapult gear exported to the USA gets 10% more expensive, but not a particularly huge problem given that sports clubs' spend on CAT gear is a relatively small part of their annual budget and it's stuff they are unlikely to consider they can do without, so Catapult has pricing power and a 10% increase to one country isn't a thesis-breaker.

Really valid point @edgescape regarding possible tariff impacts, etc.

I've disappointingly say on the sidelines on $CAT for a long time as a lot of SM investors made plenty and I'm not a holder IRL or SM portfolios (my bad call).

My post wasn't so much about the $CAT valuation (even though that's the forum title), but a bit of a response to your post where you said:

But then those times were probably different compared to now. We are constantly distracted by other things beside sport and looking for other ways to be productive

I was just trying to present another view that sport is really pervasive in most of the western world (and other countries as well, particularly those that see it as a way out of poverty) and that gives $CAT some serious TAM, but based on price, as you rightly point out.

Everything has a price point, but I think sport gets more leeway on the upper limit due to its pervasiveness in society.