Forum Topics AIM AIM CEO Interview

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

Here are some notes from today's meeting with Tony.

His enthusiasm is somewhat contagious, but hopefully we can distill some objective insights from what he said.

Encoders = Trojan Horse

AI-Media's encoders (acquired via EEG) are deeply embedded in customer workflows (e.g. Channel 7, Foxtel).

Replacing them isn’t simple; it would require reconfiguring entire tech stacks, including broadcast automation systems.

These encoders come with proprietary firmware and network effects. clients already have them, so switching is costly and unattractive. And the encoder industry is very niche, and far too small for a large challenger to enter and compete.

Encoder + SaaS Model = Printer + Ink

Initial encoder sale is like selling the printer (~$10K each), but the real value comes from the ongoing SaaS revenue (the ink).

That takes the lifetime value of each encoder from ~$7K to ~$50K as they now drive much higher SaaS usage.

ICAP Network as the Toll Road

ICAP is the underlying data network that connects encoders to AI/ML models in the cloud. Its critical infrastructure no one else has at scale. It acts like a "toll road," monetized regardless of which AI engine is used.

Tech-Agnostic Integration

They can easily plug in APIs from any leading LLM (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.). They don’t build the engine; they fuel it. In Tony's words, AI-Media is the fuel injection system, not the engine.

Moat in Live Video

All the tech is optimised for live video, which is hard to do well. Real-time accuracy + speed + low cost = hard trifecta.

Most competitors are focused on recorded content, but AI-Media is entirely focused on live, where there's real defensibility.

What Most People Miss

Headline Numbers Hide the Real Story. On the surface, total revenue looks flat or down, but the mix is shifting from legacy services (people doing the work) to scalable tech (machines doing it). Margins and cash flows are actually improving as low-margin services drop off.

Strong Cash Flow Despite Transition

Still delivering positive cash flow and EBITDA, despite deliberately cannibalizing their legacy business and investing for growth. Oh, and most investment is not capitalised, but rather expensed all upfront. Tony said he prefers to have a "clean" set of financials.

Transition = Growth Hidden in Deferred Revenue

SaaS sales are growing fast, but revenue is deferred (12 months upfront) and not yet recognized. Real growth is understated in reported numbers.

Encoder Ecosystem is Portable

They've proven they can run their software stack on third-party encoders (e.g. Grass Valley, Imagine, Media Proxy).

Opens up huge optionality for future partnerships or acquisitions.

Future SaaS-Driven Growth

SaaS now includes Lexi (captioning), Lexi Voice, Lexi Brew (LLM-enabled organizational comms). Lexi Brew lets orgs use private LLMs securely—like internal ChatGPT but with data privacy.

Targeting $60M EBITDA by FY29

Organic plan in place (encoder expansion, Lexi suite, geographic rollout). But also exploring inorganic growth via M&A (especially targeting companies with large encoder bases but no SaaS layer.)

Land Grab Mindset

Acknowledges that first mover advantage matters in embedding into workflows.

Prefers low upfront M&A cost with earn-outs based on encoder conversion success.

Revenue breakdown

Two Main Buckets:

Services Revenue: Anything with a *human in the loop* (e.g. stenographers, respeakers).  

   - Charged hourly, recognized immediately.

   - This used to be 100% of the business at IPO.

   - Now shrinking rapidly, aim is for it to be just 20% of revenue, acting as a wrapper around tech.

Tech Revenue: Everything else (fully automated, AI-driven).  

   - Includes both **hardware sales (encoders)** and SaaS/software.

Within Tech, they break it down into:

  -Hardware (e.g. encoder boxes) – paid upfront, lumpy, not recurring.

  - SaaS – subscription or usage-based, recurring, higher margin.

But even SaaS Has Layers  

  SaaS includes:

  -Encoder-based SaaS (e.g. Alta, Falcon).

  -ICAP SaaS – toll-road style fees for using their data network.

  -Lexi SaaS – captioning and voice AI services, true growth engine.

  To isolate the “real” recurring growth engine, they exclude:

  - Hardware revenue.

  - Encoder-based SaaS.

  - ICAP SaaS (supporting legacy workflows).

  - Support services tied to hardware.

What’s left is the core Lexi SaaS, which is the cleanest indicator of long-term tech-driven success.

Re Deferred Revenue & Contract Liabilities: 

  - SaaS deals are increasingly paid 12 months upfront.

  - Revenue recognition is deferred, so it doesn’t show up immediately in the P&L.

  - This distorts comparisons and masks underlying growth, but cash is banked.

Accounting rules treat this as a liability, but Tony argues it’s a bit of a fiction: “It’s going to cost us $200K to deliver, but it shows up as a $2.7 million liability.”

That means the cost to fulfill is only ~10% of the deferred revenue.

He called it “completely misleading”, because it makes the company look like it owes more than it really does.


Anyway, i probably missed some stuff. But hopefully the AI helped me extract the key messages.

nessy
Added 8 months ago

Well done team! This discussion is a perfect example of why I love the Strawman platform. The combined brains of the likes of @Strawman , @jcmleng , @mikebrisy and @Shapeshifter for this thread (and of course others for other threads) helps me to understand companies and topics I wouldn't think twice about because they are so complex. It is truly an honour to ride on the shoulders of the many champions in this group.

Nessy

(likely to hold after reading all this!)

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pubenvelope
Added 8 months ago

Thank you @Strawman for the summary of the meeting. These are quite helpful as I often don't have time to catch a lot of things like this (however I really hope to change that soon when things slow down).

I want to ask about these comments:

"Replacing them (encoders) isn’t simple; it would require reconfiguring entire tech stacks, including broadcast automation systems."

"..And the encoder industry is very niche, and far too small for a large challenger to enter and compete."

When I take note of how others speak about Mr. Abrahams (i.e.- overly enthusiastic, great salesman; passionate CEO; visionary; storyteller; all of the above?), I read the above quotes and question how much truth they hold? Does anyone else here know if replacing encoders in customer workflows would actually be so difficult and painful that they would simply opt to stay with $AIM? Why wouldn't a large challenger enter and compete in a niche market if it meant making large profits?

Being able to pass on your enthusiasm is a terrific quality in a CEO; however, taking everything at face value is a risk of confirmation bias and I want to understand everything Tony is saying before assigning more of my wealth to this company.

Disc: Held (small amount).

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Strawman
Added 8 months ago

Yeah good point @pubenvelope

Ive no direct experience in that industry, let alone like install an encoder! So there's a good deal of faith in accepting things at face value.

It sounds right, but that doesn't mean it is! Would also be curious if anyone in the know can corroborate.

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jcmleng
Added 8 months ago

@pubenvelope , I do not have direct broadcast encoder experience to be 100% certain. But here is how I am evaluating and thinking about Tony’s 2 comments:

"Replacing them (encoders) isn’t simple; it would require reconfiguring entire tech stacks, including broadcast automation systems."

I can relate to Tony’s comments based on my past life managing critical, single-point failure core network switches, in a decent-sized 24x7 ops organisation. That core network switch is the single hardware device through which ALL network traffic, into, within, and out of the company, runs through - really only ONE aspect of what the AIM encoders must do. If the switch fails, the company’s entire IT network, and operations given the high IT dependence, comes to a grinding halt until the issue is fixed. 

The core switches are costly and have a 5-7 year lifespan, but is replaced well before failure/EOL. The replacement is a massive 2-3 month planning exercise as the company goes without network access for up to 24 hours, longer if there are issues (a big deal for 24x7 operations). We thus have almost total inertia to switch to a competitor switch, even if it costs less - trying something new which could lead to network instability/availability, requires new technical skills, no immediate technical expertise/experience to address issues etc, being the key reasons.

Based on this experience, the analogy Tony gave that the encoders are like the “windows operating system”, it has the software smarts, the fact that ALL broadcasting traffic goes through that single encoder real time (no traffic = black screens), all AIM”s orchestration around captioning/translations going through that encoder, the encoder is significantly more critical to a broadcasters real time operations and significantly more complex, than the core network switch I was messing around with. It is not only a piece of replaceable hardware (or in the case of Alta and Falcon, software), it is the software “brains” in and out of iCap/LEXI, which in turn manages the orchestration complexity of live captioning/translations.

So, while I will never understand the actual technical position around encoders, I really have no reason to doubt Tony’s comments around encoder replacement complexity. I think a customer will only consider totally switching encoders to a competitor as part of an overall exercise to completely boot AIM out of its shop. 

On the second comment "..And the encoder industry is very niche, and far too small for a large challenger to enter and compete."

  • I think Tony made that comment purely in the context of the EEG Physical Encoders - at $10.5k a pop, massive customer inertia to change - his comment makes sense. The business case won’t stack up for a competitor to try to barge in and compete on the EEG physical encoders at that selling price.
  • Where it got confusing for me was when Tony talked about how easy it is to layer on the EEG proprietary software onto NEW encoders - he talked about Media Proxy, Grass Valley, Imagine, plus there is the Alta and Falcon encoders etc, and he also talked about future inorganic growth around other encoder networks
  • This was where it crystallised for me that while the EEG encoders gave AIM the leg up to full automation of US broadcasters 3+ years back, the encoders themselves, today, is really not the critical piece of the puzzle nor is it the moat


It is not the encoders themselves, but rather the EEG proprietary software sitting inside an encoder (can be EEG Encoder Pro, Alta or Falcon) , which has the pipes into the iCap network, that is the technology stack moat. 

I thus do not think encoder competition, by itself, is a worry. There are and will be other encoders, doing a bunch of other things in customer networks.

What will absolutely be a worry and direct threat is if a competitor has (1) an encoder (2) software smarts that rival the EEG software on that encoder and (3) an iCap/LEXI-like setup OR an alternative approach to doing live voice captioning/translations minus iCap/Lexi. Even with this combined capability, they will still have to contend with deep customer inertia to switchover from a LEXI capability that is integral to their broadcast, which works fast, and is cheap. 

From my IT perspective, these are massive, massive technical hurdles to cross just to get to the starting line to compete with AIM on LIVE Video ...

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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Strawman
Added 8 months ago

Damn, we have a great brains trust! Good intel @jcmleng


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Shapeshifter
Added 8 months ago

@jcmleng you are like a dog with a bone this is great!

From your post:

  • Where it got confusing for me was when Tony talked about how easy it is to layer on the EEG proprietary software onto NEW encoders - he talked about Media Proxy, Grass Valley, Imagine, plus there is the Alta and Falcon encoders etc, and he also talked about future inorganic growth around other encoder networks


This would only make sense if AIM were to capture these customers and move them over to the iCAP network (if not already on it) and onto LEXI SaaS. Any existing hardware encoders would need to be upgraded with the EEG proprietary software to allow this to happen. After all the hardware is just a mechanism that allows the software to run. As AIM moves further to software based encoders you would think it is becoming more hardware agnostic.

Mediaproxy looks like a good fit for AIM as real time broadcast stream analysis is what AIM are already doing. Not sure how this would meaningfully impact the business though.

Grass Valley is a broad solution for live media production across corporate, government and broadcast. Grass Valley was puchased by Beldin (NYSE: BDC) for US$220m in 2014. From Wiki:

  • Grass Valley manufactures television production and broadcasting equipment. Its product line includes cameras, live production switchers, replay and highlights products, media storage, editing, asset management, modular infrastructure, routing, conversion equipment, control, monitoring, and automated playout, sold as hardware, software, and software as a service (SaaS).

Again not sure how this would fit into AIM's goals. Perhaps this was just a technical proof-of-concept but it was interesting to hear Tony spitball on this.

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jcmleng
Added 8 months ago

@Shapeshifter , hahaha, I badly needed a distraction from the news, no better way than to focus on your company and its moat!

Thanks for the links to Mediaproxy and Grass Valley.

Grass Valley looks equipment centric (inputs into the broadcast) and "recording"-centric (vs live video) and thus feels quite far away from what AIM does in terms of orchestration of the live video broadcast feeds. So lumping it in the "encoder" bucket feels totally strange. But the editing/replay/highlights may make sense in terms of use of the iCap network.

Mediaproxy is much closer, but it is stream analysis/compliance reporting centric. As it would have to have a broadcast feed go through the solution, it does make sense to put EEG software on it but instead of "encoding", it also feels more like an exercise to monetise the iCap network, rather than compete head-to-head with AIM's live video orchestration.

So I think you raise an important point ... the comment around "layering on EEG software on these ...", (I struggle to see them as "encoders") is perhaps really about increasing iCap/LEXI usage rather than adding more "encoders" into the mix. And yes, the hardware becomes increasingly moot over time ...

It is perhaps easier to think about the "EEG software" as the REAL technical enabler for iCap/LEXI monetising, not the encoder:

  • an encoder minus the EEG software is useless to AIM as there is no pipe to the iCap network, thus no revenue.
  • a non-encoder solution (GrassValley, Mediaproxy) with EEG software should theoretically enable access to iCap/Lexi = revenue


A note to myself is to be vigilant in how Tony uses the words "encoder" and "encoder network" and to put them in proper context!

The good thing is that we probably need not worry about these technical semantics for now as Tony has parked "other encoder networks" for inorganic growth later, to chase Enterprise and Government. But being more precise on this topic now will make it easier to understand the evolution of encoders later!

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mikebrisy
Added 8 months ago

Following the SM interview yesterday, I've gone back and looked at my valuation work as well as valuations posted by @wtsimis ($1.92) amd @Travisty ($1.61) in the context of the chart below.

4682b880586c669504f4c5a2094aaa3af61778.png

Of course, the above chart is highly aspirational, particularly given how early we are in the journey of the tech. revenue.

If you were to look at the FY29 Revenue, EBITDA and infer a reasonable NPAT (say, $30-35m), and if you were also to then look at the EBITDA and EPS growth rates at that time (FY29), you'd be forgiven for applying pretty high EPS and EBITDA multiples,... and even discounting back at whatever discount rate you like, you're going to end up with some pretty crazy valuations.

So, I'm not going to add my own valuation. And very happy to go with those by @wtsimis and @Travisty.

But my conclusion is that for as long as Tony can stick to keeping this chart as the roadmap for $AIM, the SP upside in the medium term is very significant indeed. Because once the market starts to get anywhere near thinking about the FY29 numbers shown, or even numbers on that path for FY27 and FY28, then a SP today of $0.75 is compelling value.

The margin of safety is large. For example, even if they can "only" achieve FY29 Revenue of $100m and EBITDA of $20-25m, you're still going to get fair value today of between $1.00-$2.00, which is where my fellow StrawPeople are.

This is what I like about long term targets - it gives you a reference point in doing valuations and at each report asking "Is progress in delivering the long term outcome still on track? Does the latest result make that more likely or less likely?"

Today, I've added to my $AIM holding in RL, taking it to 4.85%, which is as far as I'll go, because I still think there is a pretty high risk around delivery. But the potential reward is there, so I think it is a risk worth taking.

Disc: Held in RL

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jcmleng
Added 8 months ago

Had a good listen of the very good call with Tony. Great summary from @Strawman , thanks! Rather than being "promotional", I have found Tony to be highly passionate with a deep conviction of the direction of the business, is clearly on top of all aspects of the business and is one heck of a clear story teller. So there is always something new to pick up and digest, even though I have heard this story 4-5 times now

My key takeaways over and above the notes thus far:

LIVE VIDEO

It is all about Live Video, fast, accurate and cheap - doing translations, captions in Live Video that has been done to recorded video in the last 18M.

Competitors were not focused on Live Video, which is what the EEG Encoders/iCap/Lexi provided AIM with - without the encoders, they have no moat, because public AI technology can do all of this captioning on recorded video.

AIM DOES NOT HAVE A MOAT OUTSIDE LIVE - this is quite a key point for me. Any threats to AIM thus needs to be evaluated against the impact on Live Video for it to be of concern.

ENCODERS

Encoders from the EEG acquisition are physical hardware encoders.

Alta, Falcon are software encoders, sold as a SAAS offering - customers who are on the 2110 IP standard, do not use the Encoder Pro hardware, they use the Alta encoder, which is software that is installed into the customers hardware.

  • SMPTE 2110 is a suite of standards from the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE) that describes how to send digital media over an IP network. SMPTE 2110 is intended to be used within broadcast production and distribution facilities where quality and flexibility are more important than bandwidth efficiency
  • As US broadcasters move to the 2110 standard, more customers buy Alta encoders, less and less buy Physical Encoders - SAAS revenue headwind as go through this transition period


Think of the iCap/Lexi system as the operating system, like Microsoft Windows - can put this operating system on other people’s software.

  • The smarts is not in the hardware, it is in the iCap/Lexi operating system
  • AIM has proven at the technical level that it can develop and have an SDK applied to someone elses encoder network - Media Proxy, Grass Valley, Imagine. There is thus confidence that this will work on any other encoder network ie. read the files, data coming from the customer end, AIM can then lay over whatever is required to put captions and voice on top of that


It is not the encoders themselves, but rather the EEG proprietary software sitting inside an encoder (can be EEG Encoder Pro, Alta or Falcon) , which has the pipes into the iCap network, that is the technology stack moat.

What am I now not so clear on is whether the Total Encoders metric is actually referring to pure EEG Encoder Pro hardware encoders OR a combination of EEG, Alta or Falcon, something I would like to clarify later

REVENUE NUMBERS

Sales staff will be rewarded when cash is received, this has encouraged everyone to sell 12M upfront AND collect cash early, hence the increase in the Contract Liabilities number.

Contracts have always been 3-5 years, now just getting more cash upfront, due to Sales incentives, which adds to Contracts Liabilities in the Balance Sheet. Thus, need to add the full Contract Liabilities on the balance sheet to revenue to get the full revenue growth picture

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

31

Shapeshifter
Added 8 months ago

I had the same thought @jcmleng but my assumption is TOTAL encoders = hardware encoders + software encoders.

Surely it's in the name?

And despite the revenue recognition being different (upfront vs SAAS) both act as the same driving force for LEXI uptake which is the end game.

24

mikebrisy
Added 8 months ago

@Shapeshifter and @jcmleng I thought the same, but I am not 100% confident.

Here's my reasoning.

Yesterday when Tony gave his Russian Doll analogy, he at one point said Encoders was one layer, and within that are Software Encoders + Hardware Encoders. This was as a step along the way to peeling back to the kernel of SaaS Lexi Revenue.

So, whenever I see # Encoders, I am seeing = [ # Encoder Pro (HW) + # Falcon (SW) + # Alta (SW) ]

In the AGM speech, Tony refers to

"The installed base of 5,000 EEG Encoders in US/Canada was critical to the successful rollout of LEXI to capture 50% of total US/Canada professional live Broadcast captioning market at 90% gross margins, while successfully instigating charging on third party use of the iCap Network."

If you go right back to the presentation in 2021 announcing the acquisition of EEG, the slide below makes clear that the "Encoder" can be "cloud or on-prem hosted", i.e., hardware (on prem) or software (cloud).

I think the diagram below is unambiguous. "Video Content" has to flow through the "Encoder" which is represented as a device, but we know there are software and hardware pathways for this before it ends up in the iCap Cloud.

It makes sense to use this definition, because then # Encoders is a complete driver of Tech Revenue (i.e., everything not involving a human).


(As a side note, I observe that we are seeing a similar thing in $AIM as we are in $AD8. A transition from providing hardware with the software embedded and bundled with it, to unbundling hardware and software, providing software that can run on customer/OEM hardware. This creates an initially lower revenue, higher margin business, but expands the addressible market to being hardware technology agnostic. In both cases the value driver is the number of customers who are using the technology, and then converting this into a subscription service.)

So, with this logic, the relevant metric to report to shareholders is TOTAL ENCODERS.

d41af6e6da90dbd15c021d1b98b4aba3b59ece.png




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jcmleng
Added 8 months ago

@Shapeshifter , you would think so and agree! Not a biggie in the overall scheme of things, but wanting that clarity as that subtlety might help in understand encoder trends down the road and my making sense of potential confusion around revenue. Some raw thoughts around this:

  • As more broadcasters (US or Global) move to the 2110 standard, Alta encoder volumes should rise and EEG encoders correspondingly fall which should show up in falling hardware revenue but rising SAAS revenue
  • Will be interesting to see if the EEG encoder improvements evolve towards the 2110 standard or will it stay as it
  • If EEG encoders do not evolve to 2110, does this mean that the physical EEG encoder manufacturing eventually get sunsetted over the coming years, and AIM moves all customers to an Alta

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