Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT

Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT
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$0.120 (-4%)
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Reports (2) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics BOT BOT Strawman Meeting

Pinned straw:
mikebrisy
Added 7 months ago

Good discussion with Matt just now, which I think clarified a few points which will help us all interpret the newsflow and data over the coming months and reporting periods.

  1. The target derm market is the 4,000-5,000 medico-derms, and within this they'll focus on the high prescribers. (Implication: so let's not do any modelling based on 11,000-12,000)
  2. Pure telehealth remains an unknown as to its relative performance, so over future reports I'll be listening carefully to what they are learning. This is really important for future growth, because if the platform is successful, it is an easy route to add value to already commercialised products.
  3. The early trends are continuing, but don't over-react to indidividual weeks that fall below this trend. Afterall we've already seen on in the initial results (the week of a major dermatology conference).
  4. Net revenue per refill sounding more like US$400, than US$450 which most are modelling. Possibly due to higher co-pay requirements driven by the requirements of inidividual patients plans.
  5. Refills at 6-11 p.a. dramatically reduce the number of patients to hit US$100m FY26 sales, versus analyst forecasts and industry normal (1.8 refills). Basically, as other here have modelled, if they continue to add c, 2,000 new patient per month at close to 100% refill rate, there is a LOT of revenue upside. Apart from doing "what ifs" it is too early to narrow the uncertainty, but that's what we have to track in future reports.
  6. Management and Board pretty much 100% focused at this time on Sofdra. If we see the SP start to recognise a materially higher potential FY26, then entirely possible that they exploit an opportunity to get more capital, to licence in new products, although I note that they favour back-ended deals and are willing to use debt, reserving cash to invest in Sofdra growth.


Everything else pretty consistent with what they've said before, and Matt understandably being very careful not to make new disclosures outside of a proper market release.

So far, $BOT is executing well.

Disc: Held
Geez101
Added 7 months ago

Like the comment around Matt expecting to be able to hit analysts forecasts without digital as the digital performance was something I saw as a significant risk. Not saying it won't perform and exceed expectations however I was happy to hear that portion of the strategy isn't make or break so to speak.

17
Schwerms
Added 7 months ago

It was good to hear the insurance contracts are 3 years, I had been wondering if runaway success would lead to a renegotiation but as he said in the interview big success for sofdra is still a drop in the pond price wise vs the more expensive drugs.


20
Solvetheriddle
Added 7 months ago

Good note, Mike. I didn't like the reference to taking on debt, but that is not important at this stage. getting the recurring patients is important. They appear to be approaching the pointy end of making $$ out of the diabolical US health system. remains a high-risk (and hopefully) high-return play.

one thing Trump should blow up is the US health system, there would be few tears, except maybe the US insurers, the standover crew.


held

21
Strawman
Added 7 months ago

Here's the transcript from the meeting for anyone that wants to interrogate it with AI

BOT Transcript April 2025.pdf

As always, the recording is on the meetings page.

I'm not as familiar with the business as some, but for me the key points that stood out were:

  • Digital marketing strategy and patient pathway: Botanix is using a novel, largely untested approach by combining traditional reps with a digital-to-telehealth funnel. If it works (and early signs are positive, though still very early), it should mean better margins, faster onboarding, and greater access to repeat scripts.
  • Experimental, ROI-driven approach: They are carefully managing spend, scaling efforts that show returns and pulling back where they don't. Early digital acquisition costs are high, but expected to fall as the funnel is refined.
  • Sofdra first, platform second: Matt is clearly focused on maximising Sofdra's commercial success. The broader platform opportunity (building out more products) is acknowledged but not an immediate priority.
  • Tariffs are immaterial: Any potential tariff impact (~$5–$15 per unit) is tiny relative to the ~$400 net selling price. Still, they are proactively moving to secure a second manufacturing source to manage broader supply risks.
  • Supply can scale quickly: Existing contract manufacturing setup allows them to easily ramp production if demand exceeds expectations, without requiring major CapEx or operational upheaval.


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