Yes, turned out to be simple by a process of elimination, dear Watson.
What threw me, was that their timeline had approval for Q4 of CY 2025, so to come in 6 months ahead of that timeframe is pretty good.
Now before we get excited, Canada should be similar order of magnitude to Australia, where Remplir did $0.457m in the first full year, and $1.04m in the second. And, of course, that should also temper US expectations where even 10x those numbers isn't vast.
We're back to that game of surgeons having to make a change from existing standards of care to taking on a new treatment method. Some things I don't know in this speciality area include: how quickly will KOL experiences translate from Australia and Singpore to Canada and US. If they get their distributors lined up, we'll see some revenue figures at 1H FY26, and that might give an indication.
I guess what is encouraging is the pace of the global rollout and then how quickly they've put distributors in place.
The next big one is EU+UK. $OCC are showing regulatory submission in Q3 CY 2025 and approval in Q4 CY 2026. But I wonder whether management are being conservative with their timelines. For a medical device with existing approvals in jurisdictions like Australal, Canada and US FDA, 12 months should be ample based on what I've seen before.
So, good news, But still a long road ahead. I'm keep my position very small for now until I see more sales data, as I don't have a handle on the commercial risk-reward. No need to hurry.
Disc: Held in RL and SM