Forum Topics AVR AVR CEO Interview

Pinned straw:

Added 7 months ago

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I’m looking forward to watching this. But it’s an hour long and has found me during a time-poor couple of days. I will check it out properly and add any relevant thoughts later in the week:

https://youtu.be/R68Jbk_Sp0w?si=LRdeGp3hvscm61hH

PabloEskyBruh
Added 7 months ago

OK, so it turns out I couldn’t wait, I just watched the whole thing. Easily the most confident and calm that I have seen Paterson before, he seems to know he and the company are in a good place.

Frankly, I was very impressed by Michael Frazis too — he was a thoughtful and curious interviewer and very clearly appears to be able quickly process information about a particular company or industry.

Only a couple of specific takeaways from me that I haven’t written about before:

  • Interesting (and very positive sign to my mind) Paterson is essentially saying partnership deals on are the table but he has gone cold on acquisition - he knows the valuations are too low for what he has now and the access to capital is just so much easier now for Anteris on the NASDAQ now;
  • big milestones ahead for this year. IDE first (very soon). First patient in Pivotal Trial by end of July with whole study done by end of 2026.
  • a lot of optimism about Europe and confirmation that centres there will form part of the trial.
  • Wayne possibly misspoke at about the 55 min mark where he says Anteris has ‘thousands’ of patents — it certainly has scores, but I’d be surprised if it was much over a hundred. Not an issue to my mind but. IP protection is locked in for Anteris now and that’s all that matters. However, flipside to that is that I just don’t think China has any place in the TAm conversation at all (Paterson brought it up, as a corollary to an earlier point he was making at possibly undervalued TAM). My valuations are based on the lower of these forecasts, and largely concerns the US market.
  • impressed with Paterson’s vigilance with respect to both competitors and incumbents, but again I share his confidence that Anteris is looking at a fairly clear runway at the moment.
  • finally, I love hearing that there are deliberate attempts to increase inventory and that DurAVR is significantly less labour intensive to make that sapien or evolute. I’ve been located more Anteris advertisements for medical sewer jobs in Minneapolis. Great to see.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 7 months ago

I’ve re-listened to much of this interview this last week. The comment about patents at about the 55 minute jarred me again so I’ve looked into it. I was expecting it to be puffery, but it isn’t as out there as I expected.

Broadly, Anteris has over 20 significant patents. These are made up by an extensive number of ‘patent claims’ that the holder claims to be protecting. I think this is what Patterson is referring to there.

https://patents.justia.com/assignee/anteris-technologies-corporation

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 months ago

Just further in relation to the sometimes contentious issue of TAM for TAVR I’m posting this recent article:

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/fda-approves-tavr-asymptomatic-severe-stenosis-2025a1000b6d

Normally, anything north of $10 billion USD per year by 2032 I’m inclined to consider as being overly optimistic, or at least not conservative. For my valuations I’m alway making sure my assumptions on TAM are on the lower level.

When spruiking a new product and trying to attract new capital it makes sense for the CEO of a start up company to direct punters towards those more inflated numbers.

However, the interesting thing about this study is that it was commissioned by the incumbents — Edwards Life Sciences — for their Sapien THV platform. This is Edwards themselves trying to expand the market in order to take more share of it.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 months ago

Just an interesting perspective from one of the authors — Dr Hemal Gaga — of this Early TAVR trial:

https://cardiovascularbusiness.com/topics/clinical/structural-heart-disease/tavr/cardiologist-early-tavr-asymptomatic-fda-approval?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=cvb_care

For full context it’s worth noting that there were approximately 30 authors of that paper, including members of Anteris’ scientific advisory board. He may well be a lone voice, but I find it very interesting to hear this insider’s opinion on the scientific process when big sponsors are involved. Incentives matter. I’m still of the opinion that the incumbents have damaged their own moat with this strategy — they may have given Anteris the perfect place to breach the defences.

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