You gotta red pill before you orange pill.

Bitcoin is discovered out of necessity not out of want.

If you're not curious enough or the problem for you with money isn't big enough you will likely never find it as a solution to a problem. I think for most people here who understand the need to grow their wealth and invest it's almost that some are too close did they lose the forest for the trees.

If you are an investor and you think Bitcoin is a joke and a ponzi please ask yourself this question...

What is money?

Further to your point @Saasquatch: I’d respectfully suggest that the days of anyone being able to say “Bitcoin is a ponzi” are long gone. Just look at the stats @Strawman shows above, not to mention (I think I have stolen this phrase from Andrew via the Motley Fool podcast) that ponzis don’t stick around for 12–13 years. Let’s also not forget sovereign wealth funds, federal/state governments, etc., buying into this brave new world.

We’re still so early in this crazy ride. So do a bit of research, and if it’s still not for you, that’s totally fine - but please don’t just shrug your shoulders and say it’s a scam.

If ponzies don't stick around for 12 to 13 years then how do you explain housing in Australia and Canada...

(In sarcastic tone)

It's interesting to view Bitcoin's history over the last decade. During the last nine years it's had three great bull runs and two bear markets.

The first bull ended in Dec 2017 after a run of about 18 months. The bears then took the price down from about $20k USD to about $3600, so a huge decline.

After flatlining for a few months the new bull began in late March 2019 and lasted to May 2021 (just over two years) before slumping nearly 50%.

It briefly recovered all of that loss before slumping again in Nov 2021 and entering a new bear market that lasted just over a year, with a fall of about 75% from the high point.

After flatlining for only a few weeks, the latest bull began in Jan 2023, thus making this the longest, (mostly) uninterrupted Bitcoin bull run over the last decade (it fell recently by about 25%).

Based on the above, it would seem we're overdue for a big drawdown in Bitcoin of at least 50%. (And the current chart looks very similar to 2021's double top.)

Any thoughts?

Bitcoins volatility has had a significant downtrend during its maturity and as you'd expect from any asset the more valuable the market cap the less volatile the asset becomes over time.

Yup, my view is that a 50% drawdown is possible at any point.

That being said, the mood is far from euphoric in retail land. It's more just "meh".

I'll be more worried after another giant rally and when my in-laws are texting me asking about how to buy.

As @Strawman has suggested, 50% drawdown is possible any time in this space. Is all part of the journey.

Although, looking into the short/medium-term, there doesn't seem much doubt the money printer is about to be turned up to max level and while there are obviously no guarantees, all indictors do suggest Bitcoin does pretty good at these times. Further, there is data to back that up which is always handy...... there is way to much 'double candle pattern' or 'head and shoulders pattern' crap like that in this space.

To see more on this, I suggest the below video. It is 2 hours, so get a coffee :), but it shows how Bitcoin is linked to the broader economy, again, backed by data. Raoul also has regular video updates that are worth listening to if you are new to this space or even wanting to get some valuable updates/insights. That said, you would note Raoul is fan of other coins but Bitcoin is, in the main, the focus.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IraYngzgo&t=5928s