Forum Topics VBTC VBTC Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 9 months ago

Looks like it is all systems go for Bitcoin.

A few weeks ago, I anticipated it would test its all-time high. It looks like it is close to nailing its ATH close (though still below the $109k odd reached intra-day on the day president Drumpf was inaugarated.

Price action, momentum, relative strength are all bullish, as is seasonality. Buckle up I guess?

Sharks
Added 9 months ago

Hi all. Thought I would post a link to this video I found quite interesting on Bitcoin by CMC markets.


https://youtu.be/dBnONzIzIjY?si=Ro2XvS1ciQ1OPt8Q


Ive become a bit obsessed with BTC over the last 6 months or so and have made it a significant part of my portfolio.


I thought the video outlined some of the risks with BTC quite well (as well as the opportunity), which was a good reminder for me as I've been increasing my allocation quickly in recent months.


Also just wanted to say a quick thank you to everyone for posting great content on the topic. The video posted here called 'what's the problem' by Joe Bryan really took my interest to a new level.

22
skaex
Added 9 months ago

My biggest issue right now is liquidity. ????

About a month ago, I was waiting for my monthly fiat to hit the bank so I could buy more during "the dip." Unfortunately, it took an extra three weeks, and by then, the price had already climbed $15K.

I already hold #BTC and understand the dynamics—1 BTC is 1 BTC—but my fiat brain still wants to buy at the lowest fiat price possible. It’s funny what Bitcoin does to you. ???? I'm sure many people face the same dilemma. Honestly, this is probably the first time in my investing journey I’ve wished I had a better grasp of charting.

Just yesterday, a friend sent me an Instagram post about BTC. The person who posted it is a property investor who’s always disliked Bitcoin, has clear unit bias, and has never taken the time to understand it—pretty typical.

When the property guys start talking about Bitcoin, you know something’s happening.

Also, Japan may need a bailout ;)

15
Strawman
Added 9 months ago

New all time high in USD

Who'd have thunk a pet rock collection would be valued at almost US$2.3 trillion!?

Looks like Texas, the 8th largest economy in the world, and 50% bigger than Australia's economy, is set to start its own strategic Bitcoin reserve. The 3rd US state to do so.

Probably nothing.

24

RogueTrader
Added 9 months ago

It's interesting to view Bitcoin's history over the last decade. During the last nine years it's had three great bull runs and two bear markets.

The first bull ended in Dec 2017 after a run of about 18 months. The bears then took the price down from about $20k USD to about $3600, so a huge decline.

After flatlining for a few months the new bull began in late March 2019 and lasted to May 2021 (just over two years) before slumping nearly 50%.

It briefly recovered all of that loss before slumping again in Nov 2021 and entering a new bear market that lasted just over a year, with a fall of about 75% from the high point.

After flatlining for only a few weeks, the latest bull began in Jan 2023, thus making this the longest, (mostly) uninterrupted Bitcoin bull run over the last decade (it fell recently by about 25%).

Based on the above, it would seem we're overdue for a big drawdown in Bitcoin of at least 50%. (And the current chart looks very similar to 2021's double top.)

Any thoughts?

15

Strawman
Added 9 months ago

Yup, my view is that a 50% drawdown is possible at any point.

That being said, the mood is far from euphoric in retail land. It's more just "meh".

I'll be more worried after another giant rally and when my in-laws are texting me asking about how to buy.

22