@raymon68 and @Lewis I also listened to the call yesterday.  It was the usual cadre of analysts/brokers looking for new numbers to put in their spreadsheets so they can update their inaccurate price targets! 

Rather than actual shareholders who care about the business...

Anyhow it isn't surprising to me. This is a business that is constantly bidding for and hopefully winning contracts. It won't go up in a smooth straight line. It's inherently bumpy. And impossible to guide/forecast with detailed precision. So I'm happy to add a little to my position when short term sentiment kicks in on a "miss" or trim a little when short term sentiment gets too excited. As long as the order book, pipeline and tenders aren't going backwards it's all good.

I'd much prefer they (and all listed companies for that matter) didn't give guidance and just reported actual results and then their general thoughts and plans for the future. Then a thorough Investor Day once or twice a year. This beats and misses stuff against a bunch of excel spreadsheet jockeys forecasts is just silly and adds no real value over the long term in my view. If Berkshire, Apple, Data#3 etc don't give guidance and have all compounded shareholder return well above the market, then why shouldn't others? It's just a waste of managements time in my humble opinion.

I plan to speak with them about it at the AGM this year.

Anyhow, have updated my valuation and here is what I come up with -

Based on this years EPS, a growth rate for the next few years of 12% (which is 1/3 of what they have been doing), a PE of around 14 (bottom end of their average) and div payout ratio of about 45%. I get an expected return of around 14% p.a. for the next 5 years. It won't all work out exactly like that of course but plenty of margin of safety built in based on what's known today.

I caught up with the call via reviewing the transcript. I agree with @Karmast 's comment that the conversion of wins into the Order Book is going to be a lumpy and variable process.

One comment that surpised me was blaming (in part) the Caretaker Government mode on a slowdown in Defence decisions. While that is a perfectly reasonable state of affairs to have arisen, the point is that $DUR are experienced defence contractors and the caretaker period is a well-defined period of time in which any decisions involving Ministerial sign-off get delayed. When $DUR set their guidance, they will have know which pipeline prospects and tender items were exposed to the federal election cycle, and therefore they had knowledge of that risk in setting guidance. So, I don't give them a pass for that.

I expect the next positive SP catalyst will be the two big Defence Contracts in HMAS Stirling in WA, for which $DUR have been involved with a 50% interest as part of their Ertech JV. Given their ECI involvement, these has a high change of success.

Overall, I think we are seeing a period of slower conversion into the Order Book, and it is reasonable to mark down the growth trajectory (P/E) a little for that. Again, I'm probably not far off @Karmast's view on valuation.

I actually sold my $DUR position in early April. The reason was not for any fault of $DUR or for any concerns regarding that business. it was just that the market's tariff tantrum meant that several high conviction stocks that I hold looked relatively more attractive, and I chose to increase weightings in my RL-ASX portolio on some nice drawdowns, at the expense of some of my lower-conviction/lower upside holdings. I also added some relatively small, speculative positions, including $OCC and $AVH.