I'm not sure NWS renewal was really a drag on the long-term SP, despite what's been written about it, ... in my mind it was never in doubt. But no question, today's SP move is a positive market reaction to the news.
What I'd be more concerned about is:
1) indications that we are moving globally into an LNG oversupply situation from 2026 and
2) Saudi giving indications that it is prepared to turn on more capacity because it is getting fed up with OPEC non-compliance, particularly from Khazakhstan (where incremental 400kbpd from a Chevron expansion is now onstream) Iraq, Afghanistan and UAE. This non-compliance is coming at the worst time for the cartel, Non-Opec expansions in countries like Canada, Guyana and Brazil are adding to supply woes and these are outside Saudi's control.
Together, these could conspire to create a nasty headwind for $WDS.
Having said that. OPEC threats are having a chilling effect on the Trump's drill-baby-drill policy. Despite everything the administration is trying to do, the prospect of even lower short term oil prices means US producers are exercising capital discipline. That said, US oil production is holding up around 13 mmboepd, having recovered steadily from its pandemic low of 11mmboepd - contribution to the kind of pressure we saw it have on OPEC in 2014-16.
All this is without even considering any demand-side issues, where a chilling of global trade in a high tariff environment is hardly going to promote the economic growth needed to drive demand and high prices.
Tanking the oil price will hurt the Saudis, but they have the foreign reserves and they've shown willing to have done it before.
So, while I agree that the SP of $WDS is low, I could easily construct a 50:50 scenario whereby it moves lower over the next 12 months.
I'm a reluctant and infrequent oil stock buyer, and I've moved my buy price for WDS down to sub-$20.
Having said all that, if we do see these bearish oil and LNG price factors come to pass, then that could create the perfect buying opportunity. In oil, when it gets ugly, you can make a motza over a 1.5-3 year horizon, because the further it falls, the harder and higher it recovers!