Forum Topics IEL IEL Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 6 months ago

Airlie flagged the following in the March fact sheet:

• IDP Education (-25%): A poor result from IDP left us with more questions than answers in relation to working capital and cash flow, and we have since exited our position. While we acknowledge we could be selling the stock somewhere near the bottom of the regulatory cycle, we have a growing unease with the combination of a deteriorating balance sheet and a growing divergence between EBITDA and cash flow that to us suggests further downside is possible.

Does anyone have an opinion? insight?

The fall in cash flow appears to be due to "There was a $71.1m increase in contract assets mainly due to finalised UK applications yet to be invoiced for the 2024 fall semester." - which seems reasonable but haven't dug into whether this is usual.

Mujo
Added 6 months ago

Should add too the increase in debt was flagged as the "$70m (net) was drawn down to fund the seasonal working capital requirements and the deferred consideration for the acquisition of The Ambassador Platform Group."

Which seems reasonable.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 6 months ago

@Mujo i have a holding here, but not particularly large. Airlies' move is interesting as they are serious investors. imo. at this stage, i am aware but not concerned about the ND levels, but cash flow has clearly deteriorated. The FY24 result was 61% cash/npat conversion, and even adjusting for w/c, not great. signs of a business under stress. i usually use yearly averages here because cash can be quite lumpy. so the jury is out for me. if it persists, it calls into question the quality of the company, as this kind of company should have reasonable cash conversion, imo.

(CFO-PPE)/cap employed also downward deterioration. these indicators are not healthy and I would not at least some signs of stabilisation before i increase the weight ion any meaningful way. We all know the issues here with international student trends and the company will always have excuses, but I'm just holding at this stage. certainly, the SP will not improve until these fundamentals start to turn or at least stabilise, imo.

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