@mikebrisy makes a lot of sense your explanation 2.

In your experience are 1H trading updates common at this stage of a launch?

It varies hugely. Some companies play a straight bat and report only when required, whereas others are super-focused on where they stand compared with market expectations and continuous disclosure obligations.

On balance, if sales were still accelerating, that would be creating a big gap between SP and fair value. So I’d expect an update. No update implies management consider they don’t have information which is material to the SP.

its really hard to tell.

If pushed, I think there will soon be a trading update.

@mikebrisy where does the push for the update come from? Euroz? Or would larger holders push for it

@Schwerms Companies vary widely in when and why they choose to release “out-of-cycle” updates, often called Trading Updates. In my experience, each Board and CEO tends to take their own approach, some with a tendancy to over-communicate, and some to under-communicate.

Legally, Boards are required to disclose any information that could materially affect the share price - this is part of their continuous disclosure obligations. But in practice, some companies report even minor developments, while others only issue updates when absolutely necessary, choosing to wait for formal half-year or full-year reports.

Beyond legal duties, management often want the share price to reflect what they believe is the company’s fair value. For example, if the share price drops 50% without a fundamental reason and an acquirer makes a takeover offer at a 50% premium to that lower price, the Board would struggle to reject it - even if they believe the business is worth much more. This is why keeping the market informed is crucial.

Investor Relations plays a central role here: ensuring all valuation-relevant information is shared so the stock isn’t undervalued. Sometimes, this turns into a proactive push by management to “educate” the market and close a perceived value gap.

That said, there’s a fine line. If leadership strongly believes the market is undervaluing the company, they may become overly promotional. This becomes more complicated when executive incentives - like option schemes tied to total shareholder return - create pressure to push the share price higher, even if temporarily.

So, the decision to issue a Trading Update often comes down to the mindset of the Board and management. If they believe the company is significantly undervalued, as I suspect is currently the case with Botanix ($BOT), they’ll be considering the timing and nature of any potential update.

For example, if Sofdra is performing strongly (and to be clear, we don’t know that yet), management will weigh two options:

• Issue a Trading Update now if they believe the share price is clearly too low based on new sales data, or
• Wait a few weeks and provide a fuller update, including revenue figures and possibly forward guidance, as the regular half-year.

Given how open they were ahead of Sofdra’s launch, and the updates they've provided since, I think an update is likely.

On continuous disclosure more generally: companies that give forward guidance are obligated to update the market if results deviate from those expectations. While $BOT hasn’t released formal guidance, both Howie and Matt have made supportive public comments suggesting FY26 revenue is on track to exceed $100 million. Unless we hear otherwise, it’s fair for shareholders to assume that expectation still holds.

In short: no news likely means nothing has materially changed. Which is where I am, and why I am unfussed about the short term SP drop. (Albeit, I am worried that they get acquired too cheaply!)

@Schwerms Agreed. There is nothing I have seen that would change my view re the fundamentals.

At the same time, I didn't expect the cap Raise or Matt's exit. Put a few of these things like this together and it can make one more thoughtful.

Well done on purchasing more stock today.

It's only a temporary leave and apparently he's had health problems in the past according to HC but I haven't tried to verify that.

@Nnyck777 Yes I remember them having a "fair value" up over $8 at one stage. Currently at precisely $4.23.

I don't hold much stock in their valuation, I just wondered if it was enough to spook the horses a little, as the timing of its release seemed to coincide with a further 5% drop.

SP has recovered a little now and buyers and sellers have evened out. Perhaps it's all part of an orchestrated sell off, as you say.

I am guessing that some of the recent selling pressure has come from a few of the retail “next hot stock” followers who, had hoped that this was going to have a DRO kind of run up.

Consequently, they are leaving now, realising the muti-bags are not going to come as quick as they had believed ie in a few weeks or few months. So off they head for the next “hot stock”.

Anyway, I guess it has provided an opportunity for those who were happy with the recent update, to start a position or top up.