Pinned valuation:
Valuation deleted
@Strawman, I'm thinking there may be even a bit more margin of error in your 82c valuation for Adrad. With a FY27 share price of $1.10, discounting 10% over 2 years, gives 91c, rather than 82c. You may have discounted by 3 years? Not a biggie, but perhaps gives even more breathing room.
I agree that the PE seems low at first glance. A couple of questions:
1) Why do you think it settled around 10?
2) Given it has settled around 10, what's the catalyst for a re-rate? Often the transition from unprofitable to profitable triggers a re-rate, but Adrad has passed that milestone already.
For all those holding Adrad I have a genuine question. Have you looked at PWR Holdings (PWH) as a comparison?
They both make radiators at the end of the day but PWH does it for every Formula 1 team in the world as well as lots of other top motor sports teams. And they have also started successfully expanding into Aerospace and Defence.
Two most important differences in my opinion are -
Now, I am totally biased as I own PWH and not AHL but this is because I'd much rather own a market leader with real pricing power, stronger historical growth, lower debt and for now at least a better Board and Management. For all these reasons the higher multiple to enter seems an acceptable trade off...