Forum Topics AHL AHL AHL valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted

DrPete
Added 4 months ago

@Strawman, I'm thinking there may be even a bit more margin of error in your 82c valuation for Adrad. With a FY27 share price of $1.10, discounting 10% over 2 years, gives 91c, rather than 82c. You may have discounted by 3 years? Not a biggie, but perhaps gives even more breathing room.

I agree that the PE seems low at first glance. A couple of questions:

1) Why do you think it settled around 10?

2) Given it has settled around 10, what's the catalyst for a re-rate? Often the transition from unprofitable to profitable triggers a re-rate, but Adrad has passed that milestone already.

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

Ugh.. yeah good catch @DrPete. Counting to 3 is obviously something I need to work on.. I'll fix that now.

Re the PE, I just think it's a mix of being small and illiquid and not delivering to some of the margin expectations it laid out at IPO. My contention is that these issues are largely (but not all) extraneous and are being addressed. Not to give the board/management a free pass on falling short of promises, but it strikes me as one of those situations where, unlike much of the wider market, there's very little expectation priced in at present, so there's a bit of a safety buffer.

As for the catalyst, I think if they can show some profit growth and margin improvement that'd be enough to lift the PE. Not to 20 or something, but even if it lifted to 12 or 13 it's be significant

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Karmast
Added 4 months ago

For all those holding Adrad I have a genuine question. Have you looked at PWR Holdings (PWH) as a comparison?

They both make radiators at the end of the day but PWH does it for every Formula 1 team in the world as well as lots of other top motor sports teams. And they have also started successfully expanding into Aerospace and Defence.

Two most important differences in my opinion are -

  1. PWH manufactures most of them as custom made products and they are the best in the world at it. So, they can charge more and in turn their net margins and ROE/ROC are about 4 to 5 times higher than what Adrad is delivering. Bottom line - both companies currently have about the same levels of revenue but PWH makes 4 times as much money and has done for longer...
  2. The downside is PWH is currently on a much higher multiple. 40 times trailing PE rather than Adrads 10 times.


Now, I am totally biased as I own PWH and not AHL but this is because I'd much rather own a market leader with real pricing power, stronger historical growth, lower debt and for now at least a better Board and Management. For all these reasons the higher multiple to enter seems an acceptable trade off...





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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

You already said it @Karmast -- it's just a lot cheaper. More of a value play than anything. Not one to set and forget in the bottom drawer (for me at least), but could be a nice earner as earnings recover and the multiple expands a little. And a ~6% grossed up yield to collect as you wait.


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Goldfish
Added 4 months ago

I have owned PWH for a while and am seriously considering AHL

Definitely worthwhile to think about the comparison between the 2 businesses. They both make radiators after all.

PWH is like a fine-dining restaurant, AHL is like fast food. They don't really compete, and there is no reason that both can't be successful (or not) in their respective niches.

My concern with AHL is that it has performed poorly in the past few years. You are basically betting on at least a bit of a turnaround, or at least reversion to the mean. On the positive side, the business has been around for a long time, is profitable with a good dividend, and is super cheap. EV/revenue is not much over 0.5 and trailing PE is under 10. It's below half the 2022 IPO price (and market cap). You don't get many businesses that are profitable with a good dividend trading on those sort of numbers. It's an cheap, unexciting value stock. Exactly the kind that tends to outperform. Maybe

PWH, in complete contrast, has performed brilliantly over the past decade or so. It provides products for every F1 racing team. Revenue and profits have grown rapidly. Return on capital is around 20%. The share price has stumbled in the past year or so, as profits decline due to the company investing in expansion into aerospace and defense. It's on a much higher PE than AHL, but not as high as it has been in the past. The risk is that the expansion into new aerospace and defense products doesn't go as well as expected. That's entirely possible. Personally I think the early signs are positive and it's a very high quality company with good, incentivised management. So I am holding. It's a high quality, growth stock at a high, but not unreasonable price.

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Karmast
Added 4 months ago

Fair enough @Goldfish and those are good additional points for both businesses.

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