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#FY24 Results, Long Term Thesis
Added 2 months ago

My notes on AHL's FY24 results. As I was reviewing the Annual Report, the following 2 longer term growth areas for HTS crystallised, particularly the commentary around Caterpillar recognition, both of which now forms the core of my refined AHL thesis. Am trying to get more information on AHL's relationship with Caterpillar to work out how far it could potentially go with AluFin.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

KEY LONGER-TERM GROWTH AREAS FOR AHL

Cooling systems for Data Centres - demand for AHL’s cooling solutions will grow as demand for Data Centres grow globally driven by the AI boom. Thailand manufacturing facility is well place to support growth in this area in the Asian region

Battery powered above ground mining equipment is set up for significant growth once the cooling technology matures.

  • Supplier recognition by Caterpillar is a really good positive sign
  • Cat appears to be targeting 2028 for the production rollout of Cat battery-operated trucks - the mining industry is under increasing pressure to transition to green technology and there is a whole existing fleet of mining equipment which will require upgrading to battery-operated operations once the battery-powered technology matures
  • An efficient and cost effective cooling system is an integral part of the green equipment which is where AluFin is targeted at


FINANCIALS

Weaker 2HFY24 and weaker FY24 overall, but no surprises as guidance was provided in May 2024

FY24 earnings issues in HTS appear to be transitory, not permanent due to customer project slippage which is anticipated to be restarted in FY25 - expect to see some recovery in HTS in FY25

Revenue of $142.8m came above the midpoint of revenue guidance of $140m to $144m

EBITDA Proforma came in at $18.1m, at the lower end of the $18m-$19m guidance - HTS One off $1.5m costs were incurred, impacting EBITDA, also previously flagged

BALANCE SHEET

Strong cash generation from operations continues

Inventory reduced by $7m - focus in this area bearing fruit

Capex investment makes sense in terms of Thai plant expansion

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OPERATIONAL UPDATES

Senior Leadership Team is now fully in place with the onboarding of the new CEO Kevin Boyle in Apr 2024

Internal re-organisation completed with key segments being (1) Heat Transfer Solutions (2) Distribution and (3) Group Support

This is the ongoing maturing of the AHL organisation that Daryl Abotomey discussed during the SM meeting.

HEAT TRANSFER SOLUTIONS

Positive Developments:

  • Expanded the scope of our after sales service offering by providing more services for our customers’ equipment along its path from manufacturing and commissioning and throughout its serviceable life
  • Off-highway segment continued its positive trajectory
  • Continue to pursue operational efficiencies as we finalised construction of the factory extension and new offices, factory floor re-lay and new equipment commissioning at our Thailand plant.
  • Continued progress on AluFin product development with a number of global mining players on multiple fronts- field testing in underground mining equipment, developing a prototype for above ground mining dump trucks, field testing units in on road transport and service testing of an auxiliary cooler module for battery electric powered above ground mining equipment - 
  • Awarded the Supplier Excellence Recognition award by Caterpillar; an award which recognises top-performing suppliers who have met or exceeded rigorous requirements and achieved world-class certification levels under Caterpillar’s Supplier Excellence Recognition program


Negatives offsetting the positives:

  • Continued negative volume pressure in our OEM mining vehicle market in Asia. 
  • Conditions in the Australian domestic mining and energy sector saw a number of projects with their associated demand for cooling applications deferred. 
  • We expect most projects to progress in FY25 and we retain a positive outlook for this sector


DISTRIBUTION

Inventory reduction was a big management focus in FY24

Another year of top line revenue growth from a greater volume of sales across the range of categories we supply to the industrial and automotive aftermarkets. 

Continued to emphasise our primary focus on cooling applications in industrial and vehicular sectors but also added to our product range with the introduction of fuel pumps and harmonic balancers amongst others. 

More actively engaged in dynamic pricing to be more competitive across our product ranges and drive continued market share growth.

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

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THESIS REVIEW

No change in thesis - business is steadily improving and growing, albeit with FY24 headwinds in HTS - these appear to be transitory

Positioning early for the longer term growth in HTS from Data Centre growth and AluFin opportunities in mining, especially when the global mining equipment players complete the current development phase of green technology equipment and massive fleet replacements from combustion to green technology occurs

Happy with 2.8% position size. Will top up position to 3.5% on any weakness below 75c, which is an attractive entry point given AHL’s all-time low price of ~64.5c

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#Riding on AI Data Centre Wave
Added 2 months ago

This is a note to myself, sharing in case it resonates with anyone else.

I was reading the story of the AirTrunk $2.4b deal which has been all over the news, particularly the explosive demand on Data Centres from "AI, and how AirTrunk was setting up Data Centres all over Asia and Australia.

It help crystallise for me, the AHL longer-term thesis around "AI". AHL's industrial cooling systems business has seen good demand growth from data centres as AHL's systems are a key requirement for good data centre design. That AHL has moved a chunk of its manufacturing facilities to Thailand positions it well for Asia-based data centre opportunities.

Cheap sale might be on from Monday onwards, will be a good time to add ...

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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#FY24 Results
Added 3 months ago

The last FY results from Adrad weren't spectacular, but not unexpected and revealed some cause for improvement. Maybe that's far from a glowing endorsement, but when shares are on a single digit PE you dont need to expect a lot -- and it seems the market's reaction reflects this. Moreover, beyond any specific 12 month period, the business still remains sound with potential for decent growth. At least in my opinion.

So 1.2% growth in revenue is essentially flat, reflecting stable growth in the distribution segment (revenue up 4.3%) which is offset by project deferrals in the Heat Transfer Solutions (HTS) segment (a drop of 1.2% in revenue) -- which largely seem like a timing issue as they are expected to recover in FY25

The 10.9% drop in EBITDA isnt what you want to see, and while that partly reflects higher warranty claims, a big part is due to their product upgrade program -- about $1.5m worth. Excluding this, which you would hope is building the foundations for future growth, EBITDA would have been only 3.4% lower.

(Statutory NPAT was up, but largely due to favourable comps when you look at IPO related costs. Pro Forma NPAT was down 23%)

Also, the Thailand facility expansion required new equipment and a restructuring of the engineering and sales teams. These investments are expected to improve operational efficiencies, reduce costs of goods sold (COGS), and support future growth by increasing capacity to manufacture products locally rather than importing them​.

They also talked about an ERP upgrade (probably needed, but always makes you a bit nervous), as well as improved IT infrastructure.

Remember, the plan here is to transform a solid, but somewhat inefficient legacy business into a leaner, more optimised operation (something Darryl Abotomey has serious form in.)

We saw improved margin in distribution, inventory reduction thanks to improved processes, and range expansion. And customers continue to grow:

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Speaking of inventory reduction, that drop in working capital helped boost operating cash flows from $7m to $14.7m (there was also a $2m tax benefit)

It was good to see the balance sheet improve -- cash increased 13.7% to $15.8m, while debt reduced 51.5% to $1.4m. The company paid out 40% of profit as a dividend, or 2.94cps. That gives a backwards yield of ~4% fully franked. Based on pro forma profit the PE is 9.3x (even after today's 9% pop).

I cant really see too much wrong with this picture. They will continue to modernise this old family business, build more capacity and capture more share. It's profitable, dividend paying and with a strong balance sheet. Yeah, capital orders will always be lumpy, but this is a proven business that has operated across many cycles, and I think low double-digit profit growth is absolutely in play for the next few years. (perhaps mid single digit revenue growth, boosted by efficiency gains -- and there's a good deal of low hanging fruit here)

I know it sounds a bit like a PE-type play, which is more about financial engineering rather than enhancing operational effectiveness and product-market fit, but based on what Darryl said when he spoke with us, this is much more about operating smarter and more efficiently, while still remaining focused on delivering value for customers.

Happily Held.

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#New 10% stakeholder - Anacacia
Last edited 3 months ago

Adrad has a new significant shareholder. This fund appears to be an active investor in Australasian SMEs, both private and public. They have some recognisable names on their website, including Big River, Yumi's Quality Foods (the dips you can find at the supermarket), and the notorious Appen.

So I took a small position because, well, Appen :P

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#Bull Case
Added 4 months ago

Chart update 22nd July 24

Possible short term bull case on technicals only with PT's by 2 brokers also

This is certainly speculative, however im starting to see some divergences showing up on short time frames and noteably on the 1h. The last update I gave here, no longer can be used at all. You will see it had a possible W1 in place, however now this retracement wave has taken back more than 100% of the prior wave, therefore no longer qualifies as a wave 1. So the process starts all over again. For that reason I cant look forward very far at all. I have bought in with a small position purely on the divergence i see and the price targets given by couple of broker and will see how it plays out. Im basically fishing for the bottom, hoping for a large runway to come as all the indicators say its bottoming out. That doesnt mean it can still plummet further. Beware. As it starts to play out and show more indication, I will update the chart again.

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#Bear Case
Added 5 months ago

Chart update

I see droppings to the 0.61-0.67 range

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#Daryl's Role in AHL
Added 5 months ago

From the AFR:

Street Talk understands veteran Bapcor chief executive Darryl Abotomey was canvassed by the Mike Murphy-led Bain Capital about being involved in the buy-out. Bapcor disclosed it had received a $1.83 billion non-binding, indicative offer from Bain via scheme of arrangement on Tuesday, following a report by Street Talk. Abotomey did not respond to requests for comment.

Sources said Bain Capital was among a number of private equity firms that had tested the appetite of the former Bapcor boss. Of some note, it is understood shareholder John Wylie, who is leveraging a 6.45 per cent ownership to call for a board shake-up, had also reached out to Abotomey about his interest in taking the chairman’s role under a new owner.

The proposed Bain takeover offer of BAP could impact AHL a bit. This plan to involve Daryl in BAP 2.0 sounds like it has been brewing for a while and makes perfect sense. The timing is very interesting vis-a-vis AHL (1) the BAP downgrade (2) Kevin coming onboard AHL (3) Daryl handing over and being totally non-commital on his involvement in AHL post Kevin when SM interviewed him a few months back.

I can't see Daryl just stumping out capital to partake in the buyout and do nothing else ...

Given that BAP would be a competitor of sorts to AHL's parts distribution, not sure how Daryl can still be involved in AHL as a non-Exec director, if he is actually going to be involved in BAP 2.0.

Doesn't change my thesis for AHL, but I would probably temper my enthusiasm a bit, unless Kevin turns out to be a dud ...

Discl: Hold AHL IRL and in SM, Do Not Own BAP

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#Technicals
Added 6 months ago

Fri 31.05.24

I'll update this chart along they way

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#Downgrade Conference Call Note
Added 6 months ago

Darryl introduced the new CEO Kevin Boyle who started in April and spoke well for the short time in the business and the team seemed relaxed and at ease with each other and the call.

The downgrade is centred around the Heat Transfer Solutions (HTS) business, with Australian mining and powergen customers mostly deferring projects to FY25 rather than cancelling.

The Distribution (Aftermarket) business is also softer than expected but will still beat the segments last years Sales ($69.6m) and EBITDA ($10.2m). Added the figures because an analysist on the call asked for them and was told to check last years accounts have these figures… maybe he was just testing their knowledge (got-ya questions).

Additional $1.5-2.0m investment required to meet current and future customer needs is an additional cash outlay, but they had $17m in the bank in December, so hardly an issue.

A question was asked if the HTS business was servicing Data Centres, the answer was yes they formed a significant part of current and expected future sales.

Investor Day will likely now be after FY24 results to allow Kevin more time to settle in and to avoid complications of previewing results – which I think is sensible and should have always been the case.

The CEO appeared to be open and honest (noting it’s easy to do at the start), the company is profitable and has a lot of cash. The issues seem to be market rather than company related and they continue to focus on lowing costs to increase margins.

Have bought more on the dip, but would be concerned if market conditions deteriorated significantly more or worse that they started to have operational issues.

 

Disc: I own RL+SM

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#ASX Announcements
Added 6 months ago

DOWNGRADED GUIDENCE:


Over recent months AHL has seen a softening of demand across its businesses.

The Heat Transfer Solutions business specialises in the development of custom designed and manufactured products predominately for the Australian environment.

As part of new product development there are continuous innovations leading to improvements in design.

One particular product for a high growth market has required an upgrade to enhance its performance.

In conjunction with the customer, HTS has been undertaking an upgrade program, which will incur an additional one-off cost of ~$1.5m to ~$2.0m in the FY24 year.

This additional investment is expected to secure orders for this product into the future.

Over the last few months there has been a deferral or cancellation of a number of projects such that the revenue from these projects will no longer be included in the FY24 results, with the majority of these projects expected to move into the FY25 year.

Demand in Distribution market has also softened, particularly for industrial radiators.

Overall AHL now expects that FY24 Forecast Revenue will be~$140m to $144m, being flat to ~3% above FY23 actual.

FY24 EBITDA (post AASB16) is forecast to be between $18m and $19m, which is between 6% and 10% below FY23 actual.

Heat Transfer Solutions revenue is forecast to be ~1% below FY23 actual owing to customer deferrals or cancellations of projects as outlined.

Many of these projects are expected to come to fruition in FY25.

FY24 EBITDA is forecast to be ~20% below FY23 actual due to the combination of the deferrals of projects and product upgrades as outlined above.

Distribution is forecast for revenue to increase ~5% above FY23 actual with forecast EBITDA ~10% above FY23 actual.

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#Price Take Stock
Added 6 months ago

AHL has weakend in the past 2 weeks on no news. The thin volume makes it very hard to buy a meaningful number of units to make the brokerage worthwhile. Took the only super-short window available today to top up at 0.93 as there was some decent volume on offer as well as the price being smack bang at the 38.2% rectracement level - both rare occurences!

If it weakens further, the next entry point that I am looking at is ~0.885, which is the 50% retracement and 200 Daily Moving Average.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM.

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#Andrew podcast on AHL
stale
Added 8 months ago

For anyone interested in Andrew making comment on Adrad, Friday’s Baby Giants (29 Mar 24) has a good discussion, and he mentions it as an investment idea at the end of the MF Money podcast for today (31 Mar 24) in the last 10 minutes.

Baby Giants Investing

Motley Fool Money on Apple Podcasts

Disc: I own IRL and it’s super illiquid.

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Valuation of $1.300
stale
Added 8 months ago

Valuation modelling is an ongoing journey. When I first started, I thought that the more complex I could make my valuation, the better and more accurate it would be.

Recently, I read "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Forecasting" - It's a great book, and I took a lot out it. One key point (among many others) was that even superforecasters struggle to make predictions anywhere from six (6) to twelve (12) months into the future, and even then, they are constantly changing their predictions as information rolls in.

As of late, I've been moving towards more of a simplified valuation method. That's not to say I won't be doing my DCF valuation and forecasting five (5) to ten (10) years out, but I'll also be focused on what present, without looking too far into the future. I'll also be considering numerous scenario's, which is something I haven't done well in the past.

Adrad is a proven company, having been in business for over forty (40) years - as such, it gives me a little more confidence in my forecasting.

Listening to the interview with management, @Strawman asked one of the most important questions (in my humble opinion), "As an investor, what are the metrics that an outsider should be looking at?". "When success is achieved, what are the signposts that we can see along the way?"

Answer, "We focus internally on an EBITDA" (have a listen to the interview for the complete answer)


Sensitivity #1: FY2024 (the simple)

Assumptions:

  • HTS (Heat Transfer Solutions) = 8.2% growth to 77m.
  • Distribution/Aftermarket = 7.0% growth to 74m
  • Consistent cost basis in line with previous three (3) years.
  • D&A = 5% of total revenue, in line with recent years.


Valuation:

  • EBITDA = $18,879,513
  • NPAT = $6,010,350
  • P/E = 15x (Not unreasonable in the circumstances, currently sitting around 10x)
  • Market Cap = 90m.
  • Implied Value = $1.10


Sensitivity #2: FY2028 (the slightly less simple)

Assumptions:

  • HTS (Heat Transfer Solutions) = 8.2% growth to 77m, tapering off to 5% growth by FY2028.
  • Distribution/Aftermarket = 7.0% growth to 74m, tapering off to 5% by FY2028.
  • Consistent cost basis in line with previous three (3) years.
  • D&A = 5% of total revenue, in line with recent years.


Valuation:

  • EBITDA = $23,377,473
  • NPAT = $7,962,105
  • P/E Ratio = 15
  • Market Cap = $119
  • Outstanding shares = 81.29m.
  • Implied Value = $1.46


Sensitivity #3: FY2028 (Slightly more complex)

Assumptions:

  • HTS (Heat Transfer Solutions) = 8.2% growth to 77m, tapering off to 5% growth by FY2028.
  • Distribution/Aftermarket = 7.0% growth to 74m, tapering off to 5% by FY2028.
  • Consistent cost basis in line with previous three (3) years.
  • D&A = 5% of total revenue, in line with recent years.
  • Discount Rate (Required rate of return) = 10%


Valuation:

  • EBITDA = $22,815,200
  • Assuming average EBITDA multiple over the last year = 7.5x
  • Implied Value = $1.34


I believe these valuations to be more on the conservative end of the scale. However before I make any further assumptions, or even consider buying at these prices, I'll be awaiting the FY2024 annual report to see how the recent expansion / outlook as spoken about in the interview has turned out.

A few other things I'm looking at:

Half year report:

  • Revenue increase of 7.6% to $73.5m.
  • Both segments, being Heat Transfer Solutions (HTS) and Adrad's aftermarket distributions up 8.2% and 7.0% respectively.
  • EBITDA up 8.4% to $9.9m.
  • NPAT up 66.4% to $3.1m.
  • Healthy balance sheet.


Outlook:

  • Aim to reduce inventory, benefiting working capital.
  • Recent capex (expansion to Thailand) should expand production capacity and reduce costs.
  • ROE has been on the decline from 21% in FY2021 to 5.2% at the half in FY2024 - there are a few reasons for this, however I'd like to see this increase steadily into the future.


Overall, pretty solid half year results (FY2024), looks to be ongoing demand in key markets, planned cost and inventory control and the full period of price increases appear to put Adrad into a decent position for their results in FY2024.

We shall wait and see...

Disc: Added to the watchlist.


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Valuation of $1.530
stale
Edited 8 months ago

Investment Thesis & Valuation

Thesis

The following key factors are being relied upon for this investment:

1.    Management acuity: without Darryl I lack the confidence that there will be rigorous business discipline in operating and investing decisions. Provided he remains a director he can guide and supervise the new CEO starting in April. After a few years it will be come less of an issue as the company management culture should have absorbed his experience. The founder on the board also provides an important industry experience skill set which needs to be maintained if he leaves to ensure technical engineering matters are understood by the leadership.

2.    Established Niche Leader: Adrad is the leader in Heat Transfer Solutions in Australia, maintaining this with innovation, business and operational efficiency is critical. Opportunities in Asia are important but more important is dominating it’s base market to provide leverage overseas. A change in the relationship with Kenworth Australia is a specific risk.

3.    Profitable and Cash: There is no good reason for the business to go into losses other than it’s in major trouble, no large growth opportunity worth chasing by making losses and burning cash to reach. WC will impact FCF as it has to date (see graph), but should become less of a factor going forward and when taken out FCF should be strong.

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4.    Operating Leverage: With modest sales growth expectations and opportunities, a significant amount of value (EBITDA) growth is going to come from margin improvement and cost management. Operational changes underway and planned are expected to deliver these over the coming years, my bear case excludes these improvements and has a value under the current price as a result, so they are critical.

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Other factors of note: Orange rather than red flags if they go negative

·       Ownership: The founding director owns 61% of the company and other directors and KMP don’t own any. I like the skin in the game of the founder but don’t know him at all (but longevity of the business is a big plus) and would like to see other directors and KMP have stakes in the company that are economically important to them.

·       Earning Stability: The OE business has long lead and tail work timelines and once established as a supplier, very sticky revenue. This is a bit like a SAAS business in it’s recuring nature and stability. Changes in technology to shorten the development cycle will challenge this stability.

·       Alu Fin: setbacks and delays in this opportunity would lead to questions of what will grow sales and how strong their leadership is.

·       Margin: I expect a slow but continued improvement in margins from the switch to Thailand and the reduction in duplicated costs. FY24 isn’t likely to show much but if guidance for FY25 doesn’t suggest noticeable improvements then deeper questions on the progress of efficiency improvements need to be answered.

·       Working Capital: AR and AP will require attention but are expected to grow with sales. Inventory should either shrink or grow at a much lower rate than sales to reflect improved management and turns as guided.

·       Acquisitions: Small add on’s within the specialist area are fine, but large acquisitions or those that expand operations out of Adrad’s niche will need a full review of the investment Thesis.

·       Free Float: The lack of liquidity on market is both an opportunity and threat for small investors, but the bigger issue is how they “fix” it… 20% of the shares came out of escrow in February, so how this is handled will also give some indication on how shareholders are treated.

·       Electrification: Not an imminent threat or opportunity for EV’s, Hydrogen opportunity is low odds, EO market supporting data centres and electric infrastructure is the tangible current opportunity. A space to watch to see how technology, markets and legislation develops.

·       Warranty: H1 FY24 high warranty expense relates to issues that have supposedly been corrected. Ongoing high warranty expense would signal operational issues that will impact margins and may spill into brand damaging sales impact.

 

Valuation

Using a terminal year of FY28 for DCF and PE based calculations my base case valuation is $1.53 (IRR 17.5% at current price of $0.90). Growth is in line with FY24 guidance at 7% but modest given the expansion options across the market. Margins are expected to improve and so I increase these to 55% by FY28 but see this improving or Opex growth being below my 5% estimate given their focus on EBITDA% improvements. Assume EBITDA% reaches 20% and NPAT% reaches 11% by FY28. 

Working capital will soak up cash as sales grow, but improved inventory management and ranging I expect should keep this to around 2% or well below sales growth. With a discount of 11% and PE assumption of 12.5 the value ranges from $1.60 to $1.45 on the bases case.

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Summary

A stable, profit making, cash generating business with a long history that is expanding operations under experienced and credible management taking advantage of new market opportunities. Not a 10 bagger but a possible 3-5 bagger at current prices in the next 5 years on an un-demanding rate of growth adding to operating leverage from scale and operational efficiencies. 

Expect 3+ year investment time frame to realise value. Comparables to IPO years and current year operational transitions are going to provide a muddy financial view for investors that may be discounted by the market until a few consecutive halves show consistency.

 

Disc: I own RL

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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 8 months ago

Company Overview

Adrad is an aftermarket suppler of heat transfer solutions for heavy automotive/transport and power generation via a wholesale distribution of standard parts or bespoke manufacture. Growth, improved margin and capital efficiency is expected from further movement of production to Thailand, range focus and opportunities in Asia.

 

Corporate History

·       Founded in 1985 by Gary and Karen Washington with a focus on delivering reliable and efficient heat transfer solutions to the aftermarket segment that meet the needs of its customers across a broad range of industries including automotive, transport, mining, construction, agriculture and energy. Adrad has an established network of branches, workshops and manufacturing facilities across 8 main sites and 16 warehouses in Australia, New Zealand and Thailand. Adrad is headquartered in Beverley, South Australia and has approximately 500 employees

·       Adrad IPO’s on the ASX on 30 September 2022 at $1.50 raising $22m from investors. $15m was for the sale of new shares and $7m the sale of SaleCo (The shareholders and directors of SaleCo are Mr Glenn Davis, Mr Gary Washington and Mr Donald McGurk and the Company Secretary of SaleCo is Ms Kaitlin Smith). Use of Funds:

  • 5.3m - PP&E in Thailand & Australia (OE)
  • 1.0m – Expand Thai manufacturing facility
  • 2.0m – PP&E (Aftermarket)
  • 4.3m – Working Capital
  • 3.6m – Offer Costs
  • 5.8m – Existing shareholder sales

·       Harrop Engineering Australia Pty Ltd ACN 134 196 080 (Harrop engineering) is a related party of the Company. Harrop Engineering’s sole shareholder is the Existing Shareholder, and Mr and Mrs Washington are also directors of Harrop Engineering. Harrop Engineering was previously a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. It was transferred to the Existing Shareholder as part of the restructure which occurred in October 2021, and is no longer part of the Group. The Company and Harrop Engineering are parties to a longstanding supply arrangement under which the Company supplies certain heat exchange products to Harrop Engineering. the price for products supplied to Harrop Engineering is calculated at cost plus a markup which equates to a relevant gross margin of approximately 24.8% for the Company there is no fixed term. FY21 sales were $1,071k (<1% of total sales).

·       Related Party: The rent payable under the Harlaxton Leases and Arlyngton Lease increases by 4% per annum, subject to periodic market review.


Business Operations

·       Adrad operates across two main segments:

  • Distribution (Aftermarket) – Australian manufacturer, importer and distributor of radiators and other heat exchange products for the Australian automotive and industrial aftermarket.
  • Heat Transfer Solutions (Original Equipment) – Designer and manufacturer of OEM industrial radiator and cooling systems from its facilities based in Australia and Thailand.

·       Distribution (Aftermarket): automative and industrial heat exchange products of which around 2/3 are third party sourced and 25% sold via the Natrad franchise network of 46 stores (at IPO). Non-franchise pricing is flexible to react to landed cost and raw material cost changes to maintain margins. The supplier base is diverse with over 60 wholesale and parts suppliers, the top 10 accounting for approximately 46% in FY21. 16 distribution warehouses across Australian and New Zealand service the network.

·       Heat Transfer Solutions (OE): address On Highway (Trucks) and Off Highway (Construction, Mining & Rail) mobile segment and stationary segment of Industrial (below 1MW in engine power) and Power/Energy Generation (above 1MW – remote power generation stations). Using lean and flexible manufacturing principles from one off projects to full just in time capabilities in Australian and Thailand as well as R&D capabilities to validate thermal performance. OE supply or project work may be from a few months to a few years but after sales service and repairs can extend 5-20 years. There a few formal fixed-term contracts and Adrad employs Business Development and Sales teams to both prospect for business and manage customers.


Strategy and Direction

·       Investment Decisions: Adrad is transitioning from a Privately owned and run company with loose investment decision criteria to one focused on return on funds invested under new management. “Sweeting Assets” to reduce working capital and target a 15-20% return on funds invested and a focus on PBT & EBITDA outcomes rather than just sales growth should see operating leverage improve but sales growth will be modest.

·       Power generation: Data centres provide an opportunity for OE colling systems for generators and some traction exists in Australia but the Asia market will require the development of a lower cost product and take time to penetrate.

·       Aluminium: radiators and cooling systems are moving from Copper/Brass based to aluminium due to weight and cost but aluminium expands and contracts significantly more with heat so requires specialist design to fit and for connecting parts which Adrad is leading on developing.  Not worth patent protecting, but trade secrets and processes provide competitive protection of sorts.

·       Thailand: Adrad has had basic operations in Thailand for around 10 years, but is now in the process of transferring all manufacturing there, leaving design and engineering in Australia. The manufacturing footprint in Thailand is growing and the equipment is being upgraded or transferred from Australia. There is currently a period of duplication of inventory and costs while this transfer takes place but once finished there should be significant efficiencies that improve EBITDA and operating leverage.



Market and Competition

·        Distribution (Aftermarket): Adrad is concentrating on heat exchange products and being the go-to supplier of these products rather than a generalist supplier. IPO talked to expanding the product range but this has been abandoned for lack of competitive edge and the lack of cash and operating efficiency in pursuing this in a crowded market.

·       Distribution is a crowded market with large dominant players in Trade and Retail. Adrad’s edge lies in specialising in cooling and as a channel for it’s OE manufactured parts at the high end.

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·        Heat Transfer Solutions (OE): Adrad is the largest and only significant supplier of large scale OE equipment in the Australian market. Specialising for designing and building for the Australian conditions (of which there are many).

·       Kenworth: Adrad has been the specialist supplier of radiators to Kenworth Australia for 45 years via the brand Air Radiators.

·        Alu Fin: A specialist aluminium cooling system for large (mega) underground mining trucks, Adrad is developing this specialist equipment for CAT in Australia which take time due to design and manufacture complexities but once established provides a long opportunity which can be expanded to other manufacturers of this equipment.

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People & Ownership

Leadership Team:

·       CEO: Darryl Abotomey (ex-Bapcor CEO of 10 years) who joined as a Director in April 2023 and from August 2023 has been acting in this role pending a replacement (Kevin Boyle who will start in April 2024 from 6 years as CEO at Blue Lake Milling a private company, but he has 20 years of manufacturing management and operations experience). The previous CEO was Donald Cormack and ex-E&Y partner was in the role for 15 years.

·       CFO: Rod Hyslop joined in November 2022, good ASX listed experience, some manufacturing and GM, mostly Energy and started in industry then audit with AA.

·       Chair: Glenn Davis, legal background with M&A, appointed in January 2022 for the ASX listing (Director of Beach Energy since 2007) – governance rather than operating skill set.

Director Ownership:

  • ·       Gary Washington (Founder/ED): 49.3m shares (61%)
  • ·       Donald McGurk: 0 shares
  • ·       Glenn Davis: 0 shares
  • ·       Darryl Abotomey: 0 shares

 

Disc: I own RL

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#Thesis for Opening Position
stale
Added 8 months ago

Just finished watching the AHL meeting video. Will need to do a deeper dive to full understand the company but rather than get stuck with analysis paralysis as I normally do, have opened a small position both IRL and in SM today.

Thesis

Main thesis points for me from the call as well as @Strawman and @Tom73 's points:

  1. The focus of the business is way, way beyond radiators - as Daryl put it "anything to cool anything down". So cooling systems for trucks, data centre gensets, power generation stations, VLine diesel trains etc. and the strategic direction is to remain very focused in this space (vs veering into more general aftermarket parts, which they are trying to reign back)
  2. Very well positioned for the cooling system-end of hydrogenisation and electrification of machines, trucks, cars - cooling is a huge issue and requirement in the greening of industrial machines, vehicles etc
  3. AHL has no direct peer in the manufacturing of "big stuff" cooling within Aust for Aust conditions for the range of products that AHL supports
  4. Are deep into AluFin technology, using aluminium instead of copper as the basis of the cooling systems
  5. Sticky customers for the main Original Equipment manufufacturing business
  6. Laser focused on improving Working Capital (lots of passion on improving inventory turns), Retun on Invested Capital and EBITDA instead of pure revenue-driven "prosperity without profit".
  7. Tailwind from moving of manufacturing facility to Thailand which is not only more cost effective, but also opens up access to Asian markets down the road.
  8. Stacks of cash, dividend paying, providing some stability to my current heavily-skewed-to-growth-centric portfolio - very nice to hear that they do not need an equity issue as they have "so much cash".
  9. Share Price has come well off the highs of $1.625, with the low thus far of $0.67, $0.90 seems like a decent entry point


Some Immediate Risks

  • Not all its products are IP-protected - not cost effective. A concern initially, but they have a 40-50 year track record of existence, and Daryl took great pains to say that it takes a heck of a long time for AHL to get a OE product from design to operations, which in itself, is a moat.
  • Low free float - they are recognising this as a "problem" and have some focus on striking a better balance on this.


I didn't realise how much I missed Daryl from BAP, until you hear/see him back in action again, motivated to get AHL on the rght track as a public company and setting them up nicely to grow.

Discl: Held IRL and opened trade in SM

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Valuation of $1.170
stale
Added 8 months ago

Let's keep this simple just to give this a rough eye-ball.

Last year Adrad did $15.6m in EBITDA and have guided for 5-8% growth in the current full year.

So let's give it a forward EBITDA of $17m. That'd be an NPAT of ~$6m if you assume the same proportional DA cost from last year.

I'll assume this is a company that can sustain (on average) upper single digit profit growth over the coming 5-10 years, so a PE of 16 seems plausible.

That gives a market cap of $96m, or about $1.17 per share.

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#Strawman Interview
stale
Added 8 months ago

Radiators aren't a sexy product, but I must say Darryl did a good job of building some enthusiasm for me.

This is a profitable company with a well established presence and some real potential for genuine efficiency gains. And having followed Darryl since the Bapcor days (and Burson before that), I think he's definitely someone who can help drive those improvements.

Some notes from the meeting:

- Adrad has two main business segments: manufacturing and supplying radiators and other heat transfer solutions, and distributing automotive parts for the aftermarket.

- The company has a long history, with one arm celebrating 50 years and the other 40 years in business. They are the sole supplier of radiators for Kenworth trucks in Australia since 1974.

- Adrad manufactures bespoke cooling solutions for various applications including trucks, trains, data centers, power generation, and mining equipment. 

- The company is developing new aluminum radiator technology which is cheaper than traditional copper/brass. This requires extensive engineering and testing to get the specifications right for different operating conditions.

- Aftermarket parts are a significant portion of sales. Adrad aims to be the go-to supplier of cooling parts for the automotive aftermarket in Australia.

- The company is focused on improving inventory turns and return on invested capital. Current inventory levels are considered too high.

- Manufacturing is being shifted from Australia to a lower-cost facility in Thailand. This will improve margins while still allowing them to service the Australian market. Asian markets provide an additional growth opportunity.

- Electric vehicles are not seen as a major threat in the foreseeable future given the slow turnover of the car parc. Adrad is developing cooling solutions for EV and hydrogen applications.

- Some of their bespoke solutions have very long sales cycles of 5+ years from initial development to volume production. Securing the first major customer is key.

- Corporate costs are being tightly controlled as the company grows by keeping most staff in the business units rather than centralizing.


Shares seem decent value too. I'll post a rough valuation seperately.

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#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 8 months ago

Guess it is up to me to read the prospectus...

Other Equipment

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Aftermarket

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Despite the glowing story of Adrad's sector and the small market cap, maybe these tables explain why some of the financial metrics are still remaining in single digits.

Even more divided on this than before I think. Probably need to do more reading before deciding.

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Valuation of $0.900
stale
Added 8 months ago

Valuation based on 9c EPS and 8% growth rate for next 5 years with a PE of 12. (Limited history as it's a newer listing but PE of 12 is well below the market average and the bottom end of the range for comparator companies.


Why would I own it?

# Founder led and very experienced Board for the current size of the business, with Directors who have recently been CEO's at other very successful ASX listed companies.

# Manufacturer and distributor of cooling systems for auto and industrial use, with over 7000 customers. They have two divisions. One is Aftermarket that supplies repairers, mechanics and franchises including Natrad who they acquired 20 years ago of “Nip into Natrad” fame!

The other division supplies Original Equipment (OE) manufacturers for their heavy vehicles including CAT, Kenworth and Hitachi. The industrial customers include Rail networks, power generators, mine sites etc.

Revenue is about 50/50 between the two divisions but the OE division is twice as profitable as the aftermarket division.


# Have their own in house R&D and manufacturing facilities including two in Thailand that were purpose built, to ensure they are well prepared for future growth and to lower costs. They also have 16 warehouses across ANZ to service Aftermarket customers.  

# This manufacturing facility investment has impacted FY23 and FY24 profit but should see a quick improvement in FY25 as the spend drops.

# Planning to expand in South East Asia from Thailand base, especially within Industrial segment.

# Have been adding new talent to the management team, who can hopefully leverage their experience and manufacturing capabilities.

# Low debt to equity of 30% and healthy cash position despite recent investments in manufacturing. ROE/ROC is only 6% and 8% however I would expect that to double in FY25 as capital expenditure drops while revenue grows.

# Gross margin and net margin have both been improving nicely for a few years in a row now.

# MOS is good at 90c share price in Mar 2023, on a trailing PE of 10. Expecting high single digit p.a. earnings growth for the next 5 years, so should be able to achieve our 15% p.a. return target with a little multiple expansion. Paying dividends at approx. 35% payout ratio.

# There are quite a few examples of companies like this doing well in Australia after listing and adding talent – for example ARB, PWR Holdings, Supply Network and Bapcor which have all been solid multibaggers for early investors.


What to watch?

# Founder or Board members selling down or leaving early.

# Profitability and ROE/ROC not improving significantly in FY25 if revenue grows as expected.

# Loss of major customers in the OE division.


What about the risk in the move to EV’s and the impact on traditional cooling systems for automotive business?

They are aware of this and plan to address as follows –

The very popular SUV’s (Ford Rangers, Toyota Hilux, Mitsubishi Triton, etc.) are likely to move towards plug in hybrid technologies meaning that a conventional internal combustion engine will still be utilized along with battery power.

Large horsepower engines (trucks etc) are moving towards hydrogen as a fuel source and the OE team is already working on multiple projects for cooling hydrogen fueled engines.

Hydrogen fueled engines present a significant opportunity for the OE business as the demands on the cooling systems are greater than for conventional diesel or gas fueled engines.

EVs will continue to require service parts (heaters, condensers, evaporators, compressors brakes, filters, etc.) as well as thermal management systems for the battery packs all of which are traditional products supplied by Adrad.


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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Last edited 8 months ago

With the thought of NextDC still fresh on my mind

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Not sure if "heat transfer" products would solve the cooling issue from DCs but one hopes that this could be a potential application.

Apart from that a few other "tidbits" I found since having this on my watchlist for 6 months but no time to write about it yet

Apologies for being too brief.and cryptic But worth spending your time understanding this company.

Hopefully I've piqued some interest, but don't mind if you give this straw a pass.

Not held but still thinking.

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