Company Report
Last edited a month ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#16
Performance (17m)
8.0% pa
Followed by
35
Straws
Sort by:
Recent
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Daryl's Role in AHL
Added a month ago

From the AFR:

Street Talk understands veteran Bapcor chief executive Darryl Abotomey was canvassed by the Mike Murphy-led Bain Capital about being involved in the buy-out. Bapcor disclosed it had received a $1.83 billion non-binding, indicative offer from Bain via scheme of arrangement on Tuesday, following a report by Street Talk. Abotomey did not respond to requests for comment.

Sources said Bain Capital was among a number of private equity firms that had tested the appetite of the former Bapcor boss. Of some note, it is understood shareholder John Wylie, who is leveraging a 6.45 per cent ownership to call for a board shake-up, had also reached out to Abotomey about his interest in taking the chairman’s role under a new owner.

The proposed Bain takeover offer of BAP could impact AHL a bit. This plan to involve Daryl in BAP 2.0 sounds like it has been brewing for a while and makes perfect sense. The timing is very interesting vis-a-vis AHL (1) the BAP downgrade (2) Kevin coming onboard AHL (3) Daryl handing over and being totally non-commital on his involvement in AHL post Kevin when SM interviewed him a few months back.

I can't see Daryl just stumping out capital to partake in the buyout and do nothing else ...

Given that BAP would be a competitor of sorts to AHL's parts distribution, not sure how Daryl can still be involved in AHL as a non-Exec director, if he is actually going to be involved in BAP 2.0.

Doesn't change my thesis for AHL, but I would probably temper my enthusiasm a bit, unless Kevin turns out to be a dud ...

Discl: Hold AHL IRL and in SM, Do Not Own BAP

#Price Take Stock
Added 2 months ago

AHL has weakend in the past 2 weeks on no news. The thin volume makes it very hard to buy a meaningful number of units to make the brokerage worthwhile. Took the only super-short window available today to top up at 0.93 as there was some decent volume on offer as well as the price being smack bang at the 38.2% rectracement level - both rare occurences!

If it weakens further, the next entry point that I am looking at is ~0.885, which is the 50% retracement and 200 Daily Moving Average.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM.

bac7e93864d3cf24b4869f5949cce37f007167.png

#Thesis for Opening Position
Added 4 months ago

Just finished watching the AHL meeting video. Will need to do a deeper dive to full understand the company but rather than get stuck with analysis paralysis as I normally do, have opened a small position both IRL and in SM today.

Thesis

Main thesis points for me from the call as well as @Strawman and @Tom73 's points:

  1. The focus of the business is way, way beyond radiators - as Daryl put it "anything to cool anything down". So cooling systems for trucks, data centre gensets, power generation stations, VLine diesel trains etc. and the strategic direction is to remain very focused in this space (vs veering into more general aftermarket parts, which they are trying to reign back)
  2. Very well positioned for the cooling system-end of hydrogenisation and electrification of machines, trucks, cars - cooling is a huge issue and requirement in the greening of industrial machines, vehicles etc
  3. AHL has no direct peer in the manufacturing of "big stuff" cooling within Aust for Aust conditions for the range of products that AHL supports
  4. Are deep into AluFin technology, using aluminium instead of copper as the basis of the cooling systems
  5. Sticky customers for the main Original Equipment manufufacturing business
  6. Laser focused on improving Working Capital (lots of passion on improving inventory turns), Retun on Invested Capital and EBITDA instead of pure revenue-driven "prosperity without profit".
  7. Tailwind from moving of manufacturing facility to Thailand which is not only more cost effective, but also opens up access to Asian markets down the road.
  8. Stacks of cash, dividend paying, providing some stability to my current heavily-skewed-to-growth-centric portfolio - very nice to hear that they do not need an equity issue as they have "so much cash".
  9. Share Price has come well off the highs of $1.625, with the low thus far of $0.67, $0.90 seems like a decent entry point


Some Immediate Risks

  • Not all its products are IP-protected - not cost effective. A concern initially, but they have a 40-50 year track record of existence, and Daryl took great pains to say that it takes a heck of a long time for AHL to get a OE product from design to operations, which in itself, is a moat.
  • Low free float - they are recognising this as a "problem" and have some focus on striking a better balance on this.


I didn't realise how much I missed Daryl from BAP, until you hear/see him back in action again, motivated to get AHL on the rght track as a public company and setting them up nicely to grow.

Discl: Held IRL and opened trade in SM