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#Thesis for Opening Position
Added a month ago

Just finished watching the AHL meeting video. Will need to do a deeper dive to full understand the company but rather than get stuck with analysis paralysis as I normally do, have opened a small position both IRL and in SM today.

Thesis

Main thesis points for me from the call as well as @Strawman and @Tom73 's points:

  1. The focus of the business is way, way beyond radiators - as Daryl put it "anything to cool anything down". So cooling systems for trucks, data centre gensets, power generation stations, VLine diesel trains etc. and the strategic direction is to remain very focused in this space (vs veering into more general aftermarket parts, which they are trying to reign back)
  2. Very well positioned for the cooling system-end of hydrogenisation and electrification of machines, trucks, cars - cooling is a huge issue and requirement in the greening of industrial machines, vehicles etc
  3. AHL has no direct peer in the manufacturing of "big stuff" cooling within Aust for Aust conditions for the range of products that AHL supports
  4. Are deep into AluFin technology, using aluminium instead of copper as the basis of the cooling systems
  5. Sticky customers for the main Original Equipment manufufacturing business
  6. Laser focused on improving Working Capital (lots of passion on improving inventory turns), Retun on Invested Capital and EBITDA instead of pure revenue-driven "prosperity without profit".
  7. Tailwind from moving of manufacturing facility to Thailand which is not only more cost effective, but also opens up access to Asian markets down the road.
  8. Stacks of cash, dividend paying, providing some stability to my current heavily-skewed-to-growth-centric portfolio - very nice to hear that they do not need an equity issue as they have "so much cash".
  9. Share Price has come well off the highs of $1.625, with the low thus far of $0.67, $0.90 seems like a decent entry point


Some Immediate Risks

  • Not all its products are IP-protected - not cost effective. A concern initially, but they have a 40-50 year track record of existence, and Daryl took great pains to say that it takes a heck of a long time for AHL to get a OE product from design to operations, which in itself, is a moat.
  • Low free float - they are recognising this as a "problem" and have some focus on striking a better balance on this.


I didn't realise how much I missed Daryl from BAP, until you hear/see him back in action again, motivated to get AHL on the rght track as a public company and setting them up nicely to grow.

Discl: Held IRL and opened trade in SM