Forum Topics CGS CGS SP Jump today on no news.

Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

Cogstate SP up 15.6% today.

I can't see any announcements or reports. I'm wondering if I've missed anything.

Anyone?


Bear77
Added 6 months ago

Cogstate shares were being accumulated by Australian Ethical Investment Ltd @UncleWally - as notified to the ASX yesterday: Change in substantial shareholding from AEF

As of the 6th June AEF were up to 10.64% of CGS, from their last notice on 27th June last year when they were 9.63% of CGS.

They only need to notify the ASX (and CGS) when their position increases or decreases by 1% or more - this notice showed a +1.01% increase that took almost a year, with buying stretching from August 2024 through to June 6th 2025.

They also need to notify if their position falls below 5%, or rises to 5% or more from below 5%, but in AEF's case it's the 1% movements that matter, either up or down, and this time it's up.

So what I'm suggesting is that either (a) AEF are still buying more CGS, and/or (b) people are thinking CGS is a Buy based on AEF increasing their own stake, so other people are following them in or increasing their own positions.

Just a guess from me, FWIW.

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UncleWally
Added 6 months ago

@Bear77 you are a wealth of information. That makes sense.

I did see AEF's notification but didn't realise the significance.

Thanks so much!

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Bear77
Added 6 months ago

No probs @UncleWally - AEF have had mixed results over the years, not always backing winners, but their LIC's SP has risen from around $4 to over $6 per share in the past year, so they must be doing something right. I also think that people like to watch what they're investing in and often follow them on the basis that if AEF have vetted a company and are increasing their exposure to that company then that's often good enough for some time-poor ordinary retail investors who want to feel they are investing responsibly and "ethically" (a very subjective concept) themselves yet don't have much time and/or confidence to do their own DD.

That's my view on why there's often copycat purchases of any company that AEF are gaining exposure to or increasing their stake in.

And, as I said, AEF could also be buying more themselves and we won't know until they hit 11.64% or higher, being 1% above the level disclosed in their notice yesterday. Their last 1% rise (in percentage ownership of CGS) took 12 months (June last year to June this year), so I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for their next notice.

BTW, I don't hold AEF or CGS; I've never held AEF to the best of my knowledge, but I've held dozens of LICs at various times in past years, mostly trading on the prospect of discounts in their SPs (to their NTA or NAV) narrowing faster than their NTA or NAV could fall (didn't always work out so well), and I definitely did hold Cogstate about 7 years ago, but at some point not long after I bought in I thought my investment thesis in Cogstate was busted (I can't quite remember the exact reasons why) so I fully exited. That exit would have been in 2018 when they were in a strong downtrend on their way to a sub-20 cents/share low point in mid-2019. Of course from there they 10-bagged to almost $2.50 before going back into another downtrend in 2022. I stopped following them very soon after I sold out actually, but interesting to look back now with the benefit of hindsight and see what might have been if I'd NOT sold out...

I believe my exit back in 2018 coincided with a decision to exit a number of positions that were not yet profitable, as in the companies themselves were still posting losses, and I reckon I came around to the realisation that it was better to have identified a likely catalyst that should cause a substantial positive sentiment shift before buying into companies like that. Prior to that I was identifying various possible positive catalysts but I wasn't really putting enough work into guesstimating the likelihood of those catalysts ocurring. And I also decided to focus far more on areas where I thought I had an edge or at least understood the companies and their operating environment reasonably well, and that clearly was NOT the case with Cogstate. For me anyway.

Well done to those that have held them from 19 cents per share in 2019!

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UncleWally
Added 6 months ago

"TIme-poor ordinary retail investors"

That sounds like me @Bear77 but I prefer to follow some of the wonderful Strawpeople here who generously share their knowledge and expertise.

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