Pinned straw:
18th June 2025: Firstly, I hold GNG, and remain bullish on the company, so that's the context of this post. However, their share price has run ahead of where I expected them to be right now, and I'm wondering if there's either a takeover brewing or else a fundie is building or increasing a position ahead of what they expect to be a better than anticipated full year report from GNG in August (for FY2025).
That 52 week high of $3.22 was hit yesterday, as shown below, and that's also an all-time high share price for GNG. Below is the recent daily trading data for GNG and I note that the last 6 trading days (prior to today) have been above-average volumes for GNG, and they've broken out to the top side of a pennant formation (as shown above).
Here's the past 3 months so you can see that breakout more clearly:
The share price ticked up to $3.16 (from $3.15) when I was screenshotting that, but it dropped back to $3.15 a minute later.
Below is a graph of GNG's share price since IPO and shows that they've been in a long term uptrend for 12 years now - since June 2013:
And they've broken up above that rising channel now, which I do not think is sustainable, however I do reckon it is likely signalling that somebody or some entity (fund or company) is building a decent stake, which is impossible to do in a low liquidity company like GNG without moving the share price.
In my largest real money portfolio (the one outside of my SMSF), GNG is the second largest position (behind LYL), but I haven't added to that position since early June (2nd) when I added more at $2.80, after also topping up in May at prices varying between $2.76 and $2.84 (I made 4 top up buys in May).
It's interesting because LYL (Lycopodium) is a very similar company, and their share price has been trading sideways between $10 and $11 for 3 months and they've been in a short term downtrend during the past 3 weeks, so this rise in the GNG share price on higher volumes does not appear to be an industry sentiment driven thing, it's specific to GNG.
I don't fully understand it yet, but I'll take it.
For further context, GNG have only released two new contract win announcements during the past 3 months (i.e. since their H1 results were released in Feb):
King-of-the-Hills-Operations-Stage-2-Upgrade-(GNG-05-June-2025).PDF
GR-Engineering-Awarded-Black-Swan-Plant-Engineering-Study-(HRZ-08-April-2025).PDF
They did release their HY25 Investor Presentation in mid-March, being just over 3 weeks after their H1 results were released, which included the following slide:
Typically understated confidence. They rarely make any acquisitions and when they have, those have been both strategically smart as well as earnings accretive. They might be about to announce another acquisition, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see another company try to acquire GR Engineering (GNG).
Of course it might just be that one of the three brokers that cover them (see below) have recently released an update and upgraded their call and/or their target price for GNG, and that the subsequent retail buying has caused the share price to break out simply due to the lack of sellers (low liquidity).
Source: https://www.gres.com.au/investors/analyst-reports.aspx
I'm not a client of Argonaut, EH or TC, so I don't have access to those reports. I do subscribe to FNArena, however FNArena don't cover those three brokers within their closely monitored "Expert Views" a.k.a. "Broker Calls", and only have TC on their "Extra Coverage" list (a.k.a. "B.C. Extra"), and they say (about that), "Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP."
FWIW, FNArena have summarised TC's latest three updates like this (below, latest one at the top):
Source: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/stock-analysis/?code=GNG
Could also be that news has leaked of an impending major new contract award to GNG. We shall see...
Disc: Holding. GNG is one of my largest positions at this point in time in my real money portfolios. And a smaller position here on Strawman.com.
Actually I disagree. I have subscribed to many share services: Motley Fool, (all services), Fat Prophets, VEYE, and Shares in Value.
I have found most useful the fortnightly webinars where Shares in Value recommend just a few stocks that are VALUE now.
They recommended Telix at $6! Pity I had not bought then!
Not all recommendations by any service are winners. However Shares in Value has given me many better ideas that the other services mentioned and I continue to subscribe to SIV while discontinuing service from the other mentioned companies.
It pays to do your own thinking using ideas gained from any different places, including Strawman.
The cost of advice services is small compared to the losses possible by buying the wrong shares.
GNG were recommended on Shares in Value on June 12. The same company recommended GNG a few months earlier.
Dividend is outstanding .
So the most likely explanation of the recent surge in the GNG SP is certainly being given a "Buy" rating and a positive write-up from a subscription stock picking service (Shares in Value) as explained by @feteguru however there is also the small chance that today's announcement was leaked beforehand and that might have accounted for at least some of the buying:
EPC-Contract---Eloise-Copper-Expansion-Project.PDF
It's another upgrade / refurb contract rather than a EPC-from-scratch contract, so sub-$100 million again, but it all adds up. Remember, GNG is a small company with a market capitalisation of around $500m, so a $77 million contract like this is significant. They have picked up a bunch of these over the past couple of years.
The market likes it, however on a down day for the market in general, GNG has only been bought up back to just above where they were two days ago:
Hold the fort, I got called away to something else in the middle of posting this and upon return, have found GNG have been bought up some more today and have made a new all time high SP in the past hour.
So - two reasons for them to go up now. All good.
Disc: Held.
See also: A1M: Key Contract Awarded for Eloise Plant Expansion.PDF
That's the announcement by A1M of their award of this Eloise Plant expansion contract to GNG. I note A1M have also announced a $55m placement priced @ 30 cps today: A1M: Equity Raise Presentation.PDF
It's not a bad price, in that it's around where they've been trading lately, like in the last week or two, a little above 30 cps, however they were trading at 42.5 cps on March 10th, so it's a pity they didn't pull the trigger on the CR back then.
They have also agreed to a US$40m (A$61.5m) Prepayment Facility and linked Offtake Agreement with Trafigura, and they're doing a $10m SPP, so the total of those 3 (first three rows below right) is $126.5 million. Of those, only the $10m SPP is still not locked in - as it depends on shareholder takeup; the Placement and PrePay Facility are both done and dusted (locked in), and are together worth $116.5m, so GNG's $77.6m contract is NOT subject to finance; the finance is secured now.
I don't hold shares in AIC Mines - as I'm not a fan of their history TBH, particularly the Intrepid Mines history where they sold off Paulsens Gold Mine to Northern Star Resources - Paulsens being the mine that got NST started - and we all know their history - from Paulsens to now being Australia's largest gold miner and one of the 10 largest gold miners globally both by market cap and production ounces per annum. Intrepid sold their Australian gold mine to put all their chips on Indonesia, a move that ended disastrously for them.
AIC Mines was formed in April 2019 through the merger of Intrepid Mines and AIC Resources after a failed attempt by Intrepid to acquire AIC Resources. The company name was changed to AIC Mines, and its ASX ticker changed from IAU to A1M. In November 2021, AIC Mines acquired the Eloise Copper Mine from FMR Investments, and they went from being a failed gold miner to being a wannabe copper miner. They have produced copper but have widely been regarded as being sub-scale, i.e. too small to matter. This plant expansion is probably a good move, however I don't follow A1M closely. I do hold GNG, and it's good for them.
I started this particular thread with a post on June 18th when GNG closed at $3.15, suggesting that their share price had broken up and out of their previous trading range - where their chart had formed a pennant (highlighted below in orange) - then broken up and out of that pattern to resume their previous uptrend.
It turns out that much of that could well be due to a subscription stock-picking service, SIV (Shares in Value), re-recommending the company as a Buy to their subscribers (shoutout to @feteguru for that info). GNG, being a small and usually illiquid microcap company, doesn't need much to get their share price to move, and that certainly seemed to do it.
Now, 4 weeks later, we can see that GNG are DEFINITELY back in that uptrend now:
And it's not one or two small trades these days - they've done over half a million dollars in share trading today - before 1pm (as shown above), which is a lot for this little company.
There is increasing buying pressure also, with 126 buyers having lodged buy orders for 302,740 shares vs only 31 sellers for just 118,186 shares (as shown above) when I took that screenshot at 1:04pm (Sydney time).
Looking through their recent announcements. we haven't had any movement in terms of Subs (substantial shareholders), so it appears to be broad-based buying.
Their 4 Subs are all either current management / directors or company founders' holdings. The company is 31% owned by their Directors and Senior Management.
Source: Page 11 of their HY25 Investor Presentation on 18th March this year.
GNG hit my $3.45 price target ("valuation") yesterday (Tuesday 15th July 2025) and have risen further today, however I'm not going to raise my price target any higher yet - until I read their full year report and outlook statement next month.
Happy to be holding them both here and IRL - they are my second largest real money position at this point in time behind LYL.
Growth plus Great Dividends!
Correction: I said in my earlier post today about GNG: And it's not one or two small trades these days - they've done over half a million dollars in share trading today - before 1pm (as shown above), which is a lot for this little company.
That's actually wrong.
At that point (1:04pm today) they had done 158,348 shares traded for a total value of $557,965.25 (over half a million dollars), but focusing on the volume rather than the dollars, they had done 158,348 shares and they ended up with 254,189 shares traded for the full day (the "daily traded volume"), and while they do have their quieter periods, like December/January:
...they have been regularly doing higher numbers than they did today, particularly around this time (July/August) a year ago:
There was even one day (25th July last year) when there was almost 7 million GNG shares traded in a day, as shown above.
Compared to those numbers above, their recent daily trading volumes haven't been higher than usual at all:
I had failed to notice their liquidity improving over the past 18 months and the average daily traded volume numbers increasing. It's not a bad thing. It likely means they're just getting on more people's radars now.
As I've tried to highlight above, recent days when their daily volume of shares traded has exceeded 220,000 shares have coincided with their largest daily percentage SP gains, which I guess should not be unusual for a company whose share price is in a strong uptrend with more volume on the buy side than the sell side (more bids than offers), as I highlighted earlier today in my other post in this thread.
All good. Onwards and upwards. Just thought I better correct my earlier assertion that today's volume was higher than usual for GNG. It wasn't.
Disc: Held.
5th August 2025: Money of Mine Podcast: We Watched Every Diggers Talk So You Don’t Have To: Big theme: bigger mills
The boys tackle the real reason why GNG's share price is now over $4/share.
I still hold GNG, however I sold some more this morning (Tuesday morning) at 11am at $4.19/share. I lodged that order last night (Monday night) based on there being decent sell volume @ $4.20 (still is now - see above, now Tuesday night) so I got in just under that level with my partial sell order and the order went through at 11am this morning while I was doing some jobs around the house. I now hold 10,000 GNG, which is less than half of what I was holding a few months ago. They look overbought, but I'll have a better idea when they report this month - and I'm especially interested in their study levels and their outlook statements. And their dividend. But mostly their outlook.
That said, they will probably go even higher from here, especially now that I've skimmed some cream off the top. After all, there's more than 6 x the volume on the buy side than the sell side, and there's only 8 sell orders lodged overnight tonight - very quiet on the sell side, just crickets above $4.79...