Forum Topics HRZ HRZ Research

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

We hosted a webinar for HRZ today. Link here. Excuse having to look at my mug for the first ~13mins.

Bear77
Added 5 months ago

Excellent viewing @BkrDzn - thanks for the link. I appreciated you underlining the downside risks, particularly the gold price risk, and also explaining the conservative assumptions and fat that have been built into your model, and how the company can improve on that valuation (cause it to increase) by executing on their plans, proving out their gold through the drilling that they will be doing. etc.

As a HRZ shareholder, I also like the additional potential upside from M&A, both through divestments of non-core assets to reduce Horizon's overall tenement holding costs (and the minimum spend requirements under WA legislation) and also through picking up additional tenements, particularly land with good gold around Black Swan. Basically, improving the tenement package quality through M&A and further drilling.

Interesting that they are the 3rd largest landholder in the WA goldfields after NST and OBM.

I'm sure there's a pun to be made about Black Swan events here... but I haven't got the motivation or the clarity of thought to attempt that after a hectic day yesterday during which I had to run the gauntlet of Perth International Airport (Terminal 1) due to the aircraft I was booked to fly to Adelaide on coming from Bali and stopping briefly in Perth on its way to Adelaide, and being an hour late due to the volcanic ash issue in Bali, and a heap of other issues that I won't go into now - except to say that Perth's T1 need to get their gate scheduling and displays sorted out - I had my departure gate switched twice while waiting, and of course it was on both occasions to a gate at the other end of the terminal. And I tried to buy a $3 bottle of water at what turned out to be a duty free shop and they refused to sell it to me because I wasn't flying overseas. A bottle of water!!

Anyway, first world problems. Nothing that a restful day won't fix. And that's what I'm having today.

Thanks again Joshua. Excellent work with the initiation report and also with the presentation and the Q&A. Much appreciated.

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Strawman
Added 5 months ago

Agreed, nicely done @BkrDzn

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Bear77
Added 4 months ago

I'm holding HRZ and while @BkrDzn has covered this company in great detail and his thorough analysis doesn't need to be added to, I'm instead just going to try to distill this one down into a couple of easily digestable key points that explain what attracts me to this company. Again, Joshua has already covered this stuff, but I'm trying to simply narrow the data to just the stuff that interests me most:

Firstly here's a snapshot of the company (source: https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/HRZ):

bff87c7764faf0a02bdf4170ee401bd7516e24.png

That $138.66 market cap is based on yesterday's closing price of $0.048 (4.8 cps) - they're down a little today.

Here are the main positives that have influenced my decision to hold HRZ:

  • (1) Black Swan: They own the 2.2Mtpa Black Swan processing facility (currently on care & maintenance) which previously operated to produce nickel (processing nickel ores, producing nickel concentrate) and Horizon intends to convert to process gold bearing ore and produce gold, possibly also producing nickel, zinc and silver (see slide below). Horizon acquired Black Swan by acquiring Poseidon Nickel in February, and Horizon say that Black Swan has an estimated replacement value of +$150M and potential for low-capex refurbishment and conversion for gold processing. So that single asset is worth more (~$150m) than HRZ's entire market cap (~$138m) at this point in time. [Value!]
  • A company that I also hold shares in and rate highly, GR Engineering Services (GRES, ASX: GNG) have been appointed by Horizon to lead the engineering study work program and GRES has commenced those Black Swan mill refurbishment and conversion studies. As a side note, have a look at GNG's chart, they've damn-near gone vertical lately (GNG are my second largest real life holding, although I have been trimming the position a little bit in the past couple of days).
  • 28066c6a16a8177769e45899b73a369b399925.png
  • Source: Page 11 of Horizon's Presentation Noosa Mining Conference on 23rd July 2025.
  • (2) Other Assets: Horizon have other assets including a LOT of land (see 2nd slide below) as well as owning shares in 3 other ASX-listed companies:
  • baaf105ad8a5b9f2459260bb71a429c9bd141e.png
  • Source: https://horizonminerals.com.au/investments/
  • (3) Producers / Cashflow: Horizon are already producing gold, via toll treatment of ore from a couple of their many gold projects, so they are actually producing revenue rather than just burning through cash like most project developers do. And look at where their many gold projects are located:
  • 958f2ba4a8ae835ca384e8e6f4498de395cd93.png
  • Source: Page 16 of Horizon's Presentation Noosa Mining Conference on 23rd July 2025.
  • Horizon's tenements are the red ones, and note all of the Northern Star Resources (NST) tenements in dark green and their proximity to Horizon's. Not sure what Horizon mean by "Padditongton Gold" in their map legend list at the bottom right of that slide above; I'm assuming they mean Norton Gold Fields Ltd, a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group, who own the Paddington gold mine, as Norton Gold Fields tenements (shown below) align with those purple and blue tenements above. Beacon Minerals (BCN) own the grey tenements on the west (left) side of that map above and BCN are producing gold from their Jaurdi Gold Project. Focus Minerals (FML), who are a subsidiary of Shandong Gold, own the orange tenements around Coolgardie and there's a chance that FML might want to also own those small red tenements there that Horizon own, but unless there's a heap of gold there I would NOT expect that to result in a meaningful transaction.
  • (4) Tenement locations: While all small goldies like Horizon who own decent gold deposits are potential takeover targets, Horizon also have at least three different companies (NST, Norton Gold Fields and Beacon Minerals) who could be interested in buying tenements from Horizon that adjoin their own tenements or are close to them.
  • I should point out that while NST and Norton Gold Fields are much larger companies, Beacon (BCN) is a small microcap whose market cap is almost exactly the same as Horizon's market cap (both around $138 million) today, so Beacon are less likely to want to acquire all of Horizon, and more likely to be interested in Horizon's western tenements that are close to Jaurdi and/or adjoining Beacon's tenements. While Beacon own a lot less ground than Horizon do, Beacon do have a producing gold mill at Jaurdi.
  • Below are the Norton Gold Fields Ltd tenements, mines and gold projects in WA, taken from their own website, to show how it aligns with what Horizon are calling "Padditongton Gold" tenements (above).
  • bdb693d04d3d8a6071b8e6cd19c64bccc3960e.png
  • Source: https://nortongoldfields.com.au/our-assets/
  • (5) Experienced Management: Horizon's Board and KMP have plenty of gold industry experience, including leading smaller explorers and developers who were subsequently taken over by larger companies, and also some experience working for larger gold producers. One NED was also on the Poseidon Nickel Board prior to Horizon acquiring Poseidon, so he should know a fair bit about both that plant and the surrounding tennements that came with that acquisition.
  • 84c0d2abdeb9c37b680670e948200f7cdcaaa0.png
  • Source: Page 3 of Horizon's Presentation Noosa Mining Conference on 23rd July 2025.

(6) With a solid and realistic plan that they are delivering:


Additionally, they should have some decent newsflow throughout the rest of this year and into next year, with a continuous 50,000m drilling programme to expand and improve confidence in their current 1.8Moz gold resource.

Key targets for 2025 drilling include:

  • Burbanks
  • Wilsons
  • Greater Boorara
  • Coote-Crake
  • Penny’s Find
  • Kalpini

Balance of resource infill, resource extension and new discovery drilling should provide continuous news flow over the remainder of 2025, and updates on the refurb and upgrade of their Black Swan processing plant should provide significant newsflow in 2026.

8b240c83b76ece1262a7b8f7106666c34d48ff.png

Source: Page 5 of Horizon's Presentation Noosa Mining Conference on 23rd July 2025.

Disclosure: I hold HRZ shares in a small "speccy" real money portfolio that currently contains just three companies, being Meeka Metals (MEK), who have just started producing gold, Horizon Minerals (HRZ), who are producing gold, plus developing a number of projects and refurbing & upgrading Black Swan to become a ~100kozpa producer themselves, and Gorilla Gold (GG8) who are an earlier stage but exciting company that is doing a LOT of drilling and finding significant gold. In my SMSF (where I can only hold ASX300 companies) I hold NST, EVN, GMD, RMS, CMM, GOR and BGL (who had a good quarterly report today but deferred FY26 guidance until next month, so they were up +5% early in the day yet finished today in the red). I hold a few of those here on SM also, plus a tiny position in EMR (which I do occasionally also hold IRL).

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

Friday 22nd August 2025: I'm just watching a few of the D&D Pressos again from earlier this month, to lock the main investment thesis bullet points into my brain - I'm only 59 but my brain is not retaining as much as it was 10 years ago - or maybe it is but I just don't know how to access that info when I need to - and the Presentation by Grant Haywood, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer of Horizon Minerals (which I hold in my speccy portfolio) is a cracker. The dude was obviously quite hoarse from having been networking with people for three days already in Kal at that point, and he did indicate at the end of the presso that he was relieved that his voice had lasted through until the end of the presentation.

For anyone who is interested: Here it is: D&D 2025 2025 | Horizon Minerals Limited - Grant Haywood, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

And here's the presentation slide deck without any audio for anyone who wants it: Diggers and Dealers Invetsor Presentation.PDF

What strikes me most from Grant's presentation is the lack of hype. He's just presenting the facts in a fairly monotone voice, but the upside is very impressive, and big thanks to @BkrDzn for bringing this one to our attention here. I'd actually never done an ounce of research on HRZ before watching Josh's RAAS Research Group "Stock Take" Presentation on the company. But the combination of current production through toll treatment of ore (meaning cashflow generation) plus the tenement package (3rd largest land holders in the area) plus the Black Swan mill upside - yeah, this one is set to perform I reckon in calendar 2026 and beyond.

They also released this on August 11th: Amended - Acquisition of Gordons Dam Project near Black Swan.PDF

Excerpt:

c1974a37a5e4df358ebc8d1ea452e7cde48497.jpeg


It's just a JORC-compliant re-release of previously disclosed information, but it does highlight the serious amount of land that HRZ owns in the WA goldfields around Kal.

Higher risk than a larger producer, but they are a producer and they're still trading with a market cap that is less than the replacement value of the Black Swan processing plant whichout any value attributed to all of that land that they own and control along with all of the gold that land contains - with quite a bit of that gold already proven up through drilling. My investment case sees upside of multiples of the current market cap over the next couple of years even at substantially lower gold prices, and I'm not actually expecting substantially lower gold prices, so little wonder I have a small position in HRZ.

Disclosure: I hold HRZ, MEK, GG8, TCG & BC8 now in that speccy portfolio, and in my SMSF and my larger "other" real money portfolio (the "income" portfolio), in the gold sector I currently hold NST, GMD, RMS, EVN, GOR, BGL, CYL and CMM. I've added a few names back in since dumping AD8 and EGL this past week.

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tomsmithidg
Added 3 months ago

@Strawman do you reckon we could get an interview with someone from HRZ? Maybe @Bear77 could preload questions for you.

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thetjs
Added 3 months ago

The Black Swan mill does appear to be a game changer for them. Do you have any thoughts on the risks of converting the mill to accomodate gold?

The few presentations I’ve seen from them always talk very directly about the conversion and I do wonder if it will be as direct and simple as presented or if it’ll present more challenges once they are into it.

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BkrDzn
Added 3 months ago

The backend will be brand new CIL, elution etc.. so it will work. The front end, crushing and grinding, is stock standard for any hard rock mining. As such it essentially will work some degree in the sense that it depends on how well the crushing and grinding can be refurbed and fine tuned to gold ore as it was built for nickel ore. The gold ore is much softer. Black Swan has separate ball mill and SAG mill circuits. My understanding is that the SAG is the preferred option but depends on if it can be optimised properly for the gold ore otherwise the ball mill side comes into play. Both grinding circuits are rate 1.1mpta based on a BWI of 30kWh/t for the nickel ore. Gold ore in this part of the state is 15-20kWh/t. Softer ore requires less power to grind to the target size. Hence how they talk about aiming for 1.5mpta run-rates with a single crushing circuit and how in theory they say they could do 2.5-30mpta.

Nothing is simple ever in mining but refurbs are relatively low risk if the plant has been maintained well and POS did always spend a bit on C&M. The risk, and this is feedback I have gotten from a few, is how the mine plan will fit together to support the company's target of 100kozpa for 5yrs+. I get close in my preliminary modelling as per the initiation report.

I am also happy to help to ask Grant to present to Strawman. Just need Andrew to say so.

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

Not sure if we can get much more info out of them than they have provided already @tomsmithidg - and also there has been some excellent analysis by @BkrDzn as well - in this very thread - it's just a waiting game now to see what drill results they get from their exploration, and what cashflow they achieve from their gold sales, and what GNG come up with in terms of the feasibility and costs of converting the Black Swan Plant to process gold - however in terms of whether it can be done, it abso-friggin'-lutely can be done as Grant explains here:

fd004455a72c2bc720fa29ed5e8f2852f4507e.jpeg

It's going to happen, and it looks fairly straightforward too, and a HEAP cheaper than building a new mill from scratch. The plant is on grid power, they were half way through TSF lift #4 when Poseidon put it on C&M, so they can finish that TSF lift for around $2 mill, and lift #5 has already been approved also, so they've got 5 years worth of tailings storage already approved. The remaining approvals for this thing are very straightforward because it was already a working mill before Indonesian nickel crashed the Australian nickel industry and forced this plant to be shut down. Nothing like a greenfields plant; Much, Much easier to get this one up and running, and as Grant explains, the front end of the plant for both nickel and gold processing is the same, just some mods to the grinding, and they are going to leave the flotation circuit in place to allow the optionality to be able to process nickel, silver and zinc in future years if prices rise enough to make that a sensible option. Just click on the image above and Grant will explain it to you quite rapidly.

GNG are the gold standard (pardon the pun) in gold mill E&C (engineering and construction) here in Australia (Lycopodium are just as good, but LYL are mostly focused offshore), so having GNG doing the feasibility studies and then actually doing the plant upgrade and modifications - as Grant has indicated they will be next year - is comforting - in that GR Engineering (GNG) have a great track record in the industry of building fit-for-purpose gold mills, upgrading existing mills, and modifying mills as well.

So, short answer is that I don't think it's going to be particularly challenging at all @thetjs I think it's going to be very straightforward for GNG to achieve. The costs will be significant, but still heaps less than a greenfields mill build.

Hope that helps.

P.S. Also note that when I took that screenshot this evening, the total "likes" registered for the presentation on YouTube was 11. Eleven! And one of those was me. Talk about a company flying under the radar of most investors and speculators!

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SudMav
Added 3 months ago

I tend to agree with you @Bear77 that there is such good information out there at the moment, and I really found the webinar and analysis from @BkrDzn to be very insightful (especially the explanation above about the conversion above). I have not yet had a chance to watch the diggers and dealers video yet but keen to see what Grant had to say.

Personally I think it would be great to try book something in for early the new year, after the mine feasibility study has been done, as we will might be able to drill down on the outcomes a little further than they might do in a more public setting.

That's my 2c - but happy to go with the preferences of the community as ill join/watch the video either way.

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