Forum Topics VYS VYS VYS valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 5 months ago
Justification

Predicting the weather..

Share price prediction using the price trend.

key inputs:

Actual share price Return    1yr: 62.50%   3yr: 92.41% pa   5yr: 56.16% pa

Share price projection on this trend say +50%

Current price today 0.52ps

so July 2026 0.78cps is the price

A look at EPS Trend

https://www2.commsec.com.au/quotes/forecasts

b5c097f5c28f99818a3ce95e636b33c82382aa.png

Over the last 3 years, earnings growth has averaged 40.60% annually at VYS. This is better than the industry average growth of 11.07%.

Current Intrinsic Value: 0.39cps / current EPS is 0.02cps

8575c5ba1a07cd61d6916cf528c09e8395e013.png


Best case:

Projected Intrinsic value 0.52cps / if EPS is 0.03cps

Refer to chart > This EPS should be attainable with EPS growing at ~40.60%pa


d69caca78004d50632cafb54f167ce3e762433.png

Projection > made with the material, knowledge known today ..hehe


TKQLD
Added 5 months ago

Vysarn has certainly been on a tear lately. Well done for adding during the tariff panic. Looking out 3-5 years I’d hope that would be a very good entry point indeed. 

What I like the most at the moment is that they seem to be successfully diversifying away from Pentium Hydro which 1H Fy25 showed is cyclical as you would expect with anything tied to resource extraction. 

I also really like that management is just quietly getting on with things, not making constant announcements like some others trying no doubt to juice the share price (Stealth, Droneshield and AI Media comes to mind - two of which I currently hold because the underlying businesses seem promising but I really dislike the used car salesman vibe from management) If the underlying business is performing you really don’t have to.

I’m happy with my current position size in Vysarn and am a long time holder as long as they keep executing. I may consider adding a little more if the share price retraces and holds the previous high anchored VWAP from September 2024 currently around 0.44. In the latest uptrend starting mid June it’s been bouncing off the 20 and 50 EMA but I’m not a trader and the price does start to look extended compared to the Anchored VWAP.


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edgescape
Added 5 months ago

Also you are adding the assumption it will experience double digit EPS growth.

I think it's a bit of a stretch for a services company but I have not seen any alternatives to Vysarn in this sector to compare ASX or otherwise.

I'm also a holder but I'm a bit sceptical of the valuation. Very tempted to sell out or reduce if I find something better value.

Plus I'm suffering from indigestion as a result of the SP increase... Have more than I need unless they do forecast a dividend soon.

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