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Valuation of $0.750
Added 4 weeks ago

Valuation update based on 1H FY26 results and commentary for Vysarn Limited (six months to 31 December 2025):

Financial Performance – Record First Half

Vysarn delivered its strongest half-year result to date, with significant year-on-year growth.

Key Results (1H FY26)

  • Revenue: $66.8m (+63% vs 1H FY25)
  • EBITDA: $13.9m (+71%)
  • NPBT: $10.0m (+92%)
  • NPAT: $7.25m (+103%)
  • Operational cash flow: $9.48m
  • Cash balance: $13.77m
  • Net tangible assets per share: 11.20 cents (up from 9.01 cents)

Importantly:

  • 1H FY26 NPBT ($10.0m) is broadly in line with 2H FY25 ($9.8m).
  • Combined CY25 (2H FY25 + 1H FY26) NPBT totals $19.8m, supporting the FY26 target.

The Board reaffirmed its FY26 NPBT target of $20m.

Earnings Quality & One-Off Items

1H FY26 results included:

  • $1.08m non-cash share-based payment expense
  • $1.89m non-cash fair value gain on CMP contingent consideration
  • Expansion-related costs from rapid national growth of CMP

Management does not report “underlying” earnings but notes these items impacted statutory results.

Segment Performance

Industrial (Drilling & Hydro Services)

  • Delivered a record half of earnings.
  • Strong iron ore sector demand in WA.
  • Improved rig utilisation, including double-shifting.
  • Fleet expansion underway:
  • 1 dual rotary rig to deploy in Q3 FY26
  • 1 additional rig arriving 1H FY27
  • 2 rig rebuilds in progress
  • Funded through asset sales and cash reserves.
  • Strategy remains concentrated in WA iron ore, supported by growing water challenges in the Pilbara.

Outlook: Strong continuation expected into 2H FY26.

Advisory (Pentium Water & CMP Consulting Group)

  • Earnings in line with expectations.
  • Rapid national expansion:
  • New offices: Brisbane, Perth, Wellington (NZ)
  • Expansion into Sydney
  • Entry into mining sector via Perth team
  • Investment impacted short-term earnings but builds long-term platform.
  • Strong exposure to state government water infrastructure spending (WA, VIC, NSW, QLD).
  • Early international pipeline via NZ water reform and partnership with Hazen & Sawyer.

Outlook: Promising pipeline with focus on utilisation and growth.

Technology (Wastewater & MAR Systems)

  • Initially expected to be second-half weighted.
  • Late December project awards improved 1H performance:
  • Material wastewater treatment plant
  • Large MAR unit order
  • Further potential awards expected in 2H FY26.
  • Expanding into:
  • Water abstraction
  • Downhole monitoring
  • O&M services

Outlook: Project-driven but strong MAR pipeline into FY26–FY27.

Asset Management (VAM)

Progress on the Kariyarra Water Scheme (KWS) in partnership with Kariyarra Aboriginal Corporation:

  • Submitted H3 hydrogeological report.
  • Applied for Section 5C groundwater licence (up to 10GL per annum for 30 years).
  • Lodged Registration of Interest to supply bulk water to Port Hedland.
  • Advancing environmental, land, and regulatory approvals.

Target by end of CY26:

  • Section 5C licence approval
  • Binding offtake or option agreement
  • In-principle funding secured

This project has potential to be a major long-term value driver, though not the primary earnings focus.

Cash Flow Commentary

Operational cash flow declined year-on-year due to:

  • Timing delays in technology segment receivables.
  • First material income tax payment.

Excluding timing impacts, EBITDA cash conversion remains in line with targets.

Balance sheet remains strong:

  • Net assets increased to $107.7m.
  • Working capital improved.
  • No dividend declared.


Strategy & Outlook

Management remains focused on:

  • Delivering $20m NPBT in FY26
  • Organic growth + disciplined acquisitions
  • Building a vertically integrated water infrastructure business
  • Expanding across:
  • Pilbara (iron ore & water scarcity)
  • Eastern seaboard utility infrastructure spend
  • Maintaining diversified exposure across sectors and economic cycles

The company states it is well funded, with multiple growth initiatives positioned for FY27 expansion.


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#VYS 1HFY26 Results
Added a month ago

Discl: Held IRL 1.84%

SUMMARY

Looks like a pleasing on-track-run-rate-to-$20.0m-NPBT, half, sustaining the big jump between 1HFY25 to 2HFY25, into 1HFY26.

Operational update continues to be highly consistent against the VYS strategy and makes sound sense.

The only negative, more increased risk awareness really, was the flag that the macro situation on commodities could negatively impact the Iron Ore sector - but this impact will be offset by the Karriyarra scheme, hence the thinking to continue to keep the drill rig fleet in the Pilbara - this makes sense, and highlights the diversified nature of VYS’s operations.

Can’t quite understand the market’s reaction today, other than it probably ran too far ahead of the results and this is the re-calibration.

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Anticipated earnings skew to 2HFY26 due to the timing of technology segment projects, did not materialise, so a very nice confidence boosting $10.0m NPBT this half.

1HFY26 NPBT includes material one-off costs (1) rapid national expansion of CMP Consulting (2) Non-cash cost $1.08m relating to Company performance rights (3) non-cash gain of $1.89m from fair value adjustment on the Contingnet Payable for CMP - this is good!

SEGMENT UPDATE

Industrial Segment

  • Record half of earnings on the back of continuing high client demand - significant demand that returned across the entire iron ore sector in 2HFY25, continued in 1HFY26 and is expected to continue into 2HFY26
  • Double shift of drill rigs and prudent rotation of equipment to a wider client base enabled a better return on assets
  • Key in 2HFY26: Management of rig availability amidst drill rig rebuilds and purchases
  • Revisited strategy to increase the size of the industrial fleet and continuing to reshape drill rig fleet mix to be skewed primarily towards owning and operating dual rotary rigs
  • Rig Fleet Changes: (1) Newly purchased dual rotary rig to be deployed 3QFY26 (2) 2nd dual rotary rig purchased, to be deployed in 1HFY27 (3) Full rebuild of 2 existing rigs, to be redeployed late 2HFY26 (4) sale of non-core drill rigs
  • Will continue to apply a commodity and geographic concentration strategy to service the Iron Ore sector in WA despite potential macro headwinds - underpinned by the need to address the substantial and growing water issue in the Pilbara

AdvisorySegment

  • Earnings were in line with expectations, represent a steady baseline of work to existing and new clients
  • Primary focus in 1HFY26 was rapid national expansion, hiring of key senior management and staff, establishing offices in BNE, PER and WLG and expanding of branding
  • PER office won first work in mining from their traditional utility centricity
  • Developing an early pipeline of international opportunities - (1) office in WLG sets VYS up in NZ where water reform and associated spend is imminent (2) ongoing development of relationship with Hazen & Sawyer that saw early works executed in both Aust and the US

Technology Segment

  • Late client awards of a material wastewater treatment plant and an order of a large parcel of MAR units in the period, mitigating the earlier anticipated 2HFY26 skew
  • Potential for the further award of an additional wastewater treatment plant and an additional MAR program in 2HFY26
  • Continues to believe that MAR remains one of Iron Ore’s preferred methodologies for the disposal of surplus water now and into the future
  • Continue to actively pursue and expansion in its breadth of products and service offerings in water abstraction, downhole monitoring and the installation, operations and maintenance of Company provided equipment - targeting first sales of these in 2HFY26

Asset Management

  • No new updates on Karriyarra from what has been previously announced
  • Targetting the issue of the Section 5C license, a binding water offtake or option agreement and in principl funding for the development of the associated KWS water infrastrcuture by the end of CY2026.

REVENUE

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  • Very good to see the sharp jump in revenue between 1HFY25 and 2HFY25, sustain through to 1HFY26, with a 62.9% jump in revenue v pcp and a 2% increase HoH
  • Management reiterated that the technology segment has work in hand and anticipated award of work in 2HFY26 purely due to client timing of project commencements
  • Corporate overheads were broadly in line HoH

EBITDA, NPAT

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Nice on-uptrend result - no concerns!

CASH & BORROWINGS

  • Despite lower cash from operations, the balance sheet has continued to show pink health
  • Cash is up slightly and borrowings have dropped sharply to $0.18m

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OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE

Continue to target FY26 NPBT of $20.0m

Well placed to replicate 1HFY26 earnings, well positioned to action organic and acquisitive growth initiatives that would provide further YoY earnings growth heading into FY2027.

Building out a unique water services and infrastructure business in the Australian market with a growing exposure to 2 major Australian water fronts: (1) Pilbara region of WA and (2) Eastern seaboard utility spend - these provide VYS with genuine diversification opportunities across sectors, geographies and counter economic cycles.

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#James Clement Interview
Added a month ago

@Strawman, could you please work your magic to tee up a chat with James Clement, CEO of Vysarn at some point??

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#Karriyarra, Deep Dive Part 3
Added a month ago

Discl: Held 1.18% IRL

VYS provided an update on the Kariyarra Water Scheme progress to the market yesterday. This pushed me to deep dive the Karriyarra Water Scheme opportunity a bit more, going back to the original 13 May 2024 announcement, and then all the updates announced, since.

VYS has positioned itself almost perfectly for this opportunity.

If this is the first of many similar water asset targets, then VYS could be well on its way to become a significantly bigger company with highly reliable recurring revenue stepping up each time it brings one of these water assets onstream across the country. It certainly has the best, and probably only, end-to-end stack of water-related capabilities to enable this. This is extremely exciting!

This was a really good reminder that not all growth opportunities need come from "AI-margeddon." ... I topped up another 0.5% yesterday and VYS was the only green holding in my battered portfolio today ....

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WHY THIS IS SIGNIFICANT

The current water supply of Port Hedland in far NW WA is at effective capacity.

WA Govt planning for additional water supply is not likely to be delivered until the 2030’s - this is a massive issue as water shortages will constrain significant and planned economic development in the PHE region https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-23/port-hedland-water-carting-pilbara-supply-shortage/106258122

VYS, via its Asset management arm, Vysarn Asset Management (VAM), have signed a Joint Resource Agreement (JRA) with the Karriyarra Aboriginal Corporation, to be equal partners to develop a newly identified water source to supply customers in the PHE region since 13 May 2024

Since May 2024, the VAM-KAC JRA has done a lot of water-related studies on the Karriyarra Water Scheme (KWS), using VYS end-to-end water specialised capabilities and technologies and have established (1) encouraging geology (2) well development water volumes (3) with the water quality suitable for direct industrial bulk supply and (4) likely to be suitable for bulk potable water supply subject to minor treatment

The KWS promximity to Porth Hedland, and the promising findings of the water studies allows the VAM-KAC to position the KWS to be the only viable near-term solution to meet water demand in Port Hedland

At 10GL (10,000,000kL) per year capacity and the Port Hedland class 2 bulk water price of $4.20 per kL, this translates, back-of-envelope, to:

  • Potential JV revenue of $42m per anum
  • VYS’ JV revenue share at 50% = $21m per annum, recurring, from 2028 for a term greater than 10 years 
  • This is a material ~20% uplift to VYS’s FY25 revenue of ~$106m
  • Required investment capex = $250m, assuming VYS’s share is 50% translates to $125m, implying a ~6 years ROI

The more I understand VYS’ history and the Karriyarra Joint Resource Agreement, the more impressed and convinced I am that VYS is really in a great place to capitalise on the Port Hedland water issue, and other similar water supply issues it has identified. It does feel like VYS has had this Port Hedland opportunity as the “end-in-mind” water assets that it wants to own as it strategy, then evolved VYS over the years to be in this precise position. 

SUMMARY OF EVENTS

  • VAM entered into a Joint Resource Agreement with Kariyarra Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC (KAC) to be equal partners in establishing and operating an exclusive and legally binding JV for the purpose of investigating, assessing, managing, owning, controlling, extracting and selling sustainable quantities of water from identified and secured water resources on Kariyarra country
  • KAC is the registered native title body corporate that hold native title on trust for the Kariyarra Traditional Owners and the traditional cultural interests in all water resources on Kariyarra country
  • VAM will also be appointed the JV manager and marketer of all sustainable quantities of water that the JV secures and develops on Kariyarra country

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PRESENTATION SLIDES ON THE KARRIYARRA WATER SCHEME

Investor Presentation 2 Aug 2024

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Investor Presentation 7 Mar 2025

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Investor Presentation 28 July 2025

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FY25 AGM Investor Presentation 27 Nov 2025

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#VYS Deep Dive - Part 2
Last edited 2 months ago

Discl: Held IRL 0.58%

Continuing my deep dive on VYS. I went through most of the key preso slides since IPO around acquisitions, launching of new capabilities to understand how VYS has evolved into what it is today.

TLDR Summary: VYS articulated a clear growth strategy of "Staged Vertcal Integration" since 2019 and then executed against that strategy, to end up becoming an intergrated and multi-disciplinary 'end-to-end' water solutions provider, today. It was a very interesting, sensible and logical evolution.

Well worth the time going through the preso's, I thought. Each pack provided a lot of insights into the water problems VYS is trying to solve and how those acquisitions give VYS capability to address those problems and the cross synergies with its other capabilities.

As my conviction continued to grow this morning, I opened a starter 0.58% position today, and expect to grow it to at least 2.5% to 3% over time.

Will now work through the 2HFY25 results in more detail ahead of the 1HFY26 results.

Should have also added that AI should help VYS in its consulting, engineering activities but it sure as hell won't replace the field services that VYS provides ....

I. EVOLUTION OF THE CORPORATE STRATEGY

VYS went to Re-IPO in Sep 2019 buying 10 hydrogeological drilling machines, primarily to address the Dewatering issue in the Pilbara, where a significant portion of the ore bodies of tier-1 iron ore miners are below the water table

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From 2020, VYS has stated its long-term strategy. 

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Fast forward to 2026, and VYS is now an integrated and multi-disciplinary ‘end-to-end’ water solutions provider, as it set out to evolve into, from 2020 onwards. The strategy matured and became clearer as the years went by.

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This transformation came about over 7 steps, involving acqusitions and the creation of subsidiaries, summarised below

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Current Geographic and Service Diversification

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What I Liked About VYS Approach To Growth

  • Consistent and unwavering strategy from the IPO
  • Each acquisition, new entity or reorganisation had a very clear link and position in the VYS strategy
  • Similar mining customers in many of the acquisitions 
  • Clear step up with personnel capability and expertise
  • Identified synergies with the rest of the VYS capabilities
  • Expansion of TAM through increasing capabilities and services, geographic expansion 
  • Acquisitions post the initial IPO acquisition of Ausdrill Hydrogeological drilling machines have been capital light - explaining the decrease in borrowings over the last 4-5 years
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Valuation of $0.810
Added 2 months ago

Very raw 1st pass valuation to see if opening a position at current levels makes sense (it appears so ...).

Will likely update this once I poke around a bit more as I would like the growth drivers for each scenario to be more clearly articulated.

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#VYS Deep Dive - Part 1
Added 2 months ago

Discl: Not Held, But Very Interested

Following on from @Chagsy, @raymon68 , @edgescape and finding non-SAAS places to put cash to use, started a bit of a deep dive with VYS.

Still some ways to go, but as of now, the things I like very much:

  • Business is very interesting as VYS is vertically integrated, and has end-to-end capability across the water value chain vs very fragmented competitors - this gives it good Aust-based capability and appears unmatched
  • Demand is compliance-driven for groundwater management - mining and utilities particularly
  • Revenue is accelerating across the 4 segments, NPAT and EPS is increasing as a result
  • Cash is clearly trending up, liabilities clearly trending down - nice


Still To Get Head Around

  • How recent acquisitions (CMP, Waste Water Management) are driving revenue, expanding geographic coverage and revenue
  • A deeper understanding of what each segment does, the growth drivers and how sustainable/sticky they are.
  • Valuation - will post an initial valuation, but need to fine-tune once growth drivers are better understood.


A. WHAT DOES VYSARN DO

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Vysarn is vertically integrated across the water value chain and operates through multiple specialist divisions: 

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Industrial

These are services tied to physical water field operations:

  • Pentium Hydro: Hydrogeological drilling and dewatering services to Tier-1 iron ore miner
  • Pentium Test Pumping: Groundwater test pumping and reinjection water services. 


Advisory & Consulting

Professional advisory and planning services:

  • Pentium Water: Water management consulting — hydrogeology, hydrology, environmental planning. 
  • CMP Consulting Group: Water infrastructure engineering consultancy (national footprint). 


Technology & Engineering

Technical engineering and design services:

  • Project Engineering: Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) in the resources sector and hydraulic engineering solutions. 
  • Waste Water Services: Design, construction and operation of custom wastewater treatment plants and pumping stations to the resource and regional utility sectors


Infrastructure

Sustainably control, convey and supply material quantities of water to meet significant unmet demand in the Pilbara region

Joint Resource Agreement with Katiyya Aboroginal Corporation, VAM continued to progress the development of a groundwater resource (and associated infrastructure) with the potential to address unmet significant industrial and municipal water demand in the Pilbara region

  • Vysarn Asset Management: Investment in water infrastructure assets (including joint resource agreements for water supply projects). 


B. VYSARN’S TAM

Vysarn operates at the intersection of several growing markets:

Water Management & Infrastructure

  • Urban water infrastructure (pipeline renewals, wastewater upgrades, strategic water planning) driven by population growth, aging infrastructure and regulation. 
  • Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) — emerging focus area as governments and mining companies seek sustainable groundwater balance solutions. 


Resources & Mining Water Services

  • Mine water dewatering and groundwater management is a critical, non-discretionary cost in mining operations. The water services market tied to mining is sizable in WA (Pilbara) and growing with exploration. 


Water Utility Engineering and Consultancy

  • National water authority capital programs (e.g., Sydney Water infrastructure spend) provide extended TAM beyond resource clients. The CMP acquisition gives access to the East Coast water infrastructure boom. 


Market Drivers include:

  • Population growth and urban infrastructure upgrades.
  • Environmental regulations requiring test pumping, groundwater accounting, and reinjection. 
  • Climate change impacts increasing demand for specialist water treatment, recharge, groundwater storage and reuse.


(Exact dollar figures for TAM aren’t broadly public; Australia’s water infrastructure investment is in the tens of billions AUD over the coming decade via state and federal plans.) 

C. CUSTOMERS

Vysarn’s customers span commercial, government and resource sectors:

Resources Sector

  • Tier-1 miners in WA (e.g., major iron ore producers — noted in commentary on drilling fleet locked into major mining contracts historically). 


Utilities & Government

  • Water Corporations (e.g., Sydney Water via CMP consulting contract). 
  • Other state water authorities and councils needing planning, engineering and treatment infrastructure.


Industrial Developers

Urban development and industrial clients requiring site water strategy, dewatering, environmental planning, MAR and wastewater solutions. 

D. COMPETITORS

There isn’t one single company doing the same whole-of-life water stack, but key competitors in related subsegments include:

  • Specialist Hydrogeology & Water Consulting
  • Ground & Water Australia (hydrogeology). 
  • Rockwater (groundwater and environmental services). 
  • WRM Water and Environment (water resource engineering). 
  • Engeny (environmental & water engineering consultancy). 
  • Tonkin + Taylor (environmental/water engineering across ANZ). 


Larger Infrastructure Services with Water Divisions

  • Ventia — infrastructure services including water projects. 
  • WSP — global engineering firm with mine water and environmental water segments. 
  • Aurecon — water infrastructure engineering globally. 


These competitors may not cover the entire portfolio that Vysarn offers but do compete in consultancy, engineering or drilling segments individually.

E. COMPETITIVE MOAT

Vysarn’s competitive strengths come from vertical integration and breadth:

End-to-End Stack

Very few peers in Australia combine advisory → drilling/test pumping → engineering → treatment → asset management in one group, enabling cross-selling and integrated project delivery. 

Compliance-Driven Demand

Increasing environmental regulations and approvals for groundwater management mean services like test pumping, reinjection and aquifer recharge are often required components of major projects (not optional). 

Strategic Acquisitions

Acquiring CMP gives access to high-value long-term utility engineering contracts and deepens the client base beyond mining. 

Early Market Position in Water Asset Management

The Asset Management division aims to control water supply infrastructure — a potentially high-margin, annuity income opportunity if realised. 

Integrated Capital & Footprint Expansion

The blend of drilling (capital-intensive) and consulting/engineering (higher margin) provides balance and diversification. 

Weaknesses/risks: Near-term industrial utilization volatility, integration risks from acquisitions, and climate/project execution risk on large infrastructure. 

F. FINANCIALS

Revenue is accelerating, especially post recent acquisitions.

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NPAT and EPS are correspondingly increasing in tandem with revenue

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Cash & Cash Equivalents are increasing, Borrowings are clearly decreasing - a good place to be

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G. INVESTMENT CASE

Bullish Points

  • Strong growth in revenue and earnings — FY25 revenue growth ~40% YoY. 
  • Diversification away from cyclical mining into utility and government mandates via CMP and wastewater capabilities. 
  • Regulation-driven demand for environmentally compliant water services which are increasingly standard requirements. 
  • Strategic acquisition strategy allows footprint and capability build-out. 
  • National infrastructure spend (e.g., Sydney Water contract pipeline) provides secular demand tailwinds. 


Risks / Bearish Considerations

  • Small-cap volatility — share price can swing materially with contract cycles or resource sector downturns. 
  • Execution risk around large projects and integration of acquisitions. 
  • Market breadth — many competitors in consult/engineering spaces may compress margins on commoditised work. 
  • Asset management execution — monetising water assets is conceptually compelling but implementation-dependent. 


Valuation Insights (third-party)

Analysts note Vysarn’s pivot to vertical integration and exposure to two major demand drivers (resources water management + infrastructure spend) but caution that current valuation may embed strong growth expectations. 

H. CHART REVIEW

Nice gradual uptrend, aligned with revenue and NPBT expansion.

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Valuation of $0.600
Edited 2 months ago

I haven't done much research on Vysarn but was intrigued by it's recent performance and enthusiastic straws by @raymon68 and @edgescape , among others.

I got perplexity to run various analyses and generate a valuation using Porter's 5 powers, a SWAT analysis and bear, base and bull cases. This generated a roughly 55c valuation

Below is the summary of the deeper version; with a multi-segment analysis of Vysarn's various activities.

Not much margin for safety if there is a significant slowdown of the iron ore segments or they stuff up an acquisition. It's definitely on the watch list as looks like a great company on their recent performance and execution. Might not get a better price but, will keep my fingers crossed.

Well done to holders!

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#AGM Presentation 2025
Added 4 months ago

Vysarn is well positioned and funded as it enters FY2026. The Company has solid cash reserves, anticipates a continuation in strong operational cashflow, is underleveraged, has access to material acquisition and growth debt facilities, and has identified multiple acquisition growth targets that have the potential to provide further scale and diversification.

In executing this strategy, the Company’s board and management will continue with their strict focus on capital allocation, building scale through diversification, and delivering long term and sustainable value for its shareholders. 


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This is just an amazing business.

Return (inc div)   1yr: 44.83%   3yr: 93.47% pa   5yr: 41.77% pa

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#Investor Update July 2025
stale
Last edited 8 months ago

Vysarn seems to be humming along nicely.

https://vysarn.com.au/investor-update-july-2025/

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Tip of the hat to Wini for this one. Took a nibble last year and have been steadily adding.

Held IRL & SM.

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Valuation of $0.700
stale
Added 9 months ago

Predicting the weather..

Share price prediction using the price trend.

key inputs:

Actual share price Return    1yr: 62.50%   3yr: 92.41% pa   5yr: 56.16% pa

Share price projection on this trend say +50%

Current price today 0.52ps

so July 2026 0.78cps is the price

A look at EPS Trend

https://www2.commsec.com.au/quotes/forecasts

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Over the last 3 years, earnings growth has averaged 40.60% annually at VYS. This is better than the industry average growth of 11.07%.

Current Intrinsic Value: 0.39cps / current EPS is 0.02cps

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Best case:

Projected Intrinsic value 0.52cps / if EPS is 0.03cps

Refer to chart > This EPS should be attainable with EPS growing at ~40.60%pa


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Projection > made with the material, knowledge known today ..hehe


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#ROE >30+
stale
Added 9 months ago

Most recent update

  • Release Date: 07/03/25 08:31
  • Summary: Investor Update FY25

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I purchased 1.5 times of my holding in the April Tariff market rout So conviction now.. Looks like a good decision 'atm'

ROE growing,

Financially in good shape Debt Equity ratio satisfactory.

No Dividend - That is ok .. 100% distribution into growing the business, therefore growing the share price.

Last

50.5¢

Change

0.010(2.02%)

Mkt cap !

$266.3M


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#Management
stale
Added one year ago

Only noticed recently that there seems to be lots of performance rights being issued.

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Usually not a big deal. But the volatility in the share price and falls in the IO price this past week is a cause for concern.

I also don't see the instos (Wilson Asset Management and Regal) that opened their wallet in the last capital raise as substantial holders meaning they probably could have come in the raise for a quick profit.

[held]

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#Bull Case
stale
Added one year ago

What's up with VYS today?

Welcome pop by the way

Held

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Valuation of $0.350
stale
Added one year ago

16-Nov-2024: 58 cps price target within 18 months, so by April 2026, and 75 cps within 3 years, so by November 2027.

Bull Thesis: The Overlooked Way to Play the Commodity Cycle (Baza Capital) [Money of Mine podcast, 8-Nov-2024]

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Disclosure: I'm holding VYS both here and in one real money portfolio, as at 16-Nov-2024 [subject to change without notice].

This is more than just a picks and shovels play on mining, this is about water management as well, which is going to become a lot more important in the future, in my opinion.

22-Nov-2024: Update: (2024 AGM):

Not overly enthused with their outlook statements today in their AGM presentation, as I mentioned in my straw. Selling out today after a very brief holding period of only a few days. I still think they are likely to reach 58 cps in the future, but it could take longer than I anticipated 6 days ago when I wrote the stuff above this update.

I would prefer to swap this cash into something in which I have higher conviction over the short to medium term, and then look to get back into Vysarn later when they've got some positive momentum again and their management are being more positive with their guidance.

I've just now shifted my price target down to 35 cps, because I think VYS have a few headwinds at this point in time, and they may well drift lower on the back of this underwhelming forward guidance at their AGM today - combined with their share price starting to trend down now.

Disclosure: I have just sold my VYS - so not holding now.

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#2024 AGM
stale
Added one year ago

Fri 22-Nov-2024: The market has sold down Vysarn (VYS) by as much as -36.8% today - earlier - their low point today was 27.5 cps, -36.8% below yesterday's 43.5 cps close. They've recovered to 40.5 cps as I type this, so "only" down -6.9% from yesterday which is a LOT better than -36.8%.

The share price rollercoaster today appears to be due to whatever was said at the AGM plus their outlook statement on slide 8 of their AGM Presentation, and specifically this:

VYSARN ANTICPATES SUSTAINED EARNINGS GROWTH IN FY25

  • 1HFY25: EBT anticipated to be below 2HFY24 following ongoing conservatism within the WA resources sector as a result of the broader global economic and political environment, and consequential uncertainty in commodity prices.
  • 2HFY25: FY25 EBT is expected to be materially skewed to 2HFY25 subject to a combination of the realisation of latent demand in the WA resource sector and the acquisition completion of Waste Water Services (WWS) and CMP Consulting Group (CMP) (subject to completing CMP). The anticipated step change in the 2HFY25 earnings run rate has the potential to provide the foundation for further earnings growth looking forward to FY26. 


I need to do some more work on understanding management, but they're either being overly cautious and trying to underpromise, or putting lipstick on a pig, or something in-between.

For me, the most concerning part of that is: "...has the potential to provide the foundation for further earnings growth looking forward to FY26."

That's a "nothing-burger" if ever I heard one.

It's not exactly a positive outlook guidance statement when you are simply saying that there is "potential" to provide a "foundation" for further earnings growth. You would bloody well hope so. EVERY business should have that, or else why are they even in business?

I have a very small position in Vysarn in one real-money portfolio which I bought during the past week just to make me focus on the company more and do further research, and I added some here on SM as well. I reckon I'm going to sell them today, because on the face of it, it seems that serious further profit growth is dependent on too many things going right for them, and they have just made a couple of acquisitions that they need to bed down at the same time.

I like their water exposure on multiple levels, however for the next 6 to 12 months I believe there are better opportunities than Vysarn, based on that forward guidance.

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added one year ago

When the price of an acquisition is too good to be true it sometimes is I guess?

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Would be bad if the acquisition did fall through.

[held]

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#CMP Capital Raising
stale
Added 2 years ago

Total upfront consideration of $24.0m cash + 10.0m shares. 

VYSARN LIMITED (ASX:VYS) - Ann: CMP Presentation and Capital Raising, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Vysarn to raise approx. $38.2m via a single tranche placement under its existing placement capacity under ASX Listing Rule 7.1 and 7.1A for funding of the upfront cash consideration of $24.0m for CMP, plus any working capital / debt adjustment payable by Vysarn. • Remaining funds to be allocated to future growth initiatives and the ongoing development of the Kariyarra water resource.

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Trading Friday: Share price reaction up 2%

VYS; compounding growth .. chart is up left to right..

Return (inc div)   1yr: 137.50%   3yr: 78.16% pa   5yr: 50.26% pa

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#Trading Halt
stale
Added 2 years ago

Vysam has today gone into a trading halt "pending an announcement in relation to a potential material acquisition and capital raising"

"the Company anticipates that the trading halt will end on the earlier of a release of an announcement to the market in relation to the material acquisition and capital raising, and the commencement of normal trading on Friday, 13 September 2024, and requests that the trading halt remain in place until that time"

Disc~ I hold in RL

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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

 Acquisition of Waste Water Services Pty Ltd seems a good fit to broadening the scope of the company.

 Cash consideration of $7.5 million

Company will pay an Enterprise Value/EBITDA acquisition multiple of 3.27x

 Projected earnings per share accretion of greater than 20%

Company has identified immediate organic growth initiatives for WWS.

WWS has been operating for over 25 years, has 18 staff, a manufacturing facility in Western Australia, and has long standing blue chip Tier 1 clients across the mining, oil and gas and industrial sectors.

WWS Manufactured Products include:

• Specialised sewage transfer stations

• Industrial waste systems • Sewage treatment plants

• Potable water systems • Industrial and agricultural dosing systems

• Temporary sewage treatment plants and potable water plants for short-and long-term hire WWS Products and Services include:

• Department of Health monitoring of wastewater treatment plants • Software engineering incl. SCADA and remote monitoring

• Supply, repair and overhaul of pumps

• Sourcing and supply of spare parts

• Supply of chemicals for water and sewage treatment

• Servicing, training and audit of wastewater treatment plants 

Disc Held in RL - largest position.

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#Financials
stale
Added 2 years ago

Doing a quick summary here....

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Vysarn is at 154m market cap with NPAT of 7.96. This is now at PER of 19.4x

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Revenue grew only 17% versus 40% in the previous year. Although this was from a higher base than FY23

Also corporate expenses ticked up 720k more than last year.

Can understand why it was sold on the news.

Much of the upside now hinges on the implementation of the water supply business in WA

[held]


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#Appointment of COO
stale
Added 2 years ago

Company has appointed Mr Steve Dropulich as Chief Operating Officer (COO).

60ecefbb606ff2b15e9995a4907d90fc3aa707.pngVysarn | VYS | Industry leading vertically integrated water service provider


The Board

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Maybe not a buy. chart would need to retest 30cps:

Circa 52 week high: Friday 32cps

Small cap: $131Mill

illiquid trades only average Daily Traded: (3-month): $52,450



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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Appointment of COO who seems a good pick. Previous company had contracts with WA's Water Corp. Also first licenses to allow KAC to conduct a drilling and test pumping program on Indee and Kangan Stations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. VYS hit an ATH of 34c yesterday.

As previously stated by the Company, in preparation for Vysarn’s next leg of growth an appropriate level of investment will be made in key senior human resources to provide greater depth and capability within the Company’s executive leadership team. The appointment of Mr Dropulich as COO underpins this strategic growth initiative. 

Mr Steve Dropulich as Chief Operating Officer (COO). Mr Dropulich is a 30 year veteran of the Australian energy and infrastructure services sector having established and led market leading contracting companies in senior executive management roles across both public and private business. During his career Mr Dropulich has developed extensive experience in financial and commercial management, establishment of high performing teams, strategy formation and execution, as well as driving operational excellence.

Prior to joining Vysarn, Mr Dropulich was a founder of ASX listed energy and infrastructure services group Valmec Limited, where he was the Managing Director for over 10 years until its acquisition in 2021 by French company, Altrad Group. Following the acquisition, Mr Dropulich held the role of Altrad’s Executive Director of Operations for the Australian region. Mr Dropulich holds a Bachelor of Commerce in accounting and business law, is a Chartered Accountant, and is a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.

Data gathered during the drilling and test pumping program will form part of a hydrogeological assessment for the commercial development and approval process for an associated 5C groundwater license that will determine the viability of the aquifer on Indee and Kangan Stations for the offtake of up to 10GL of water per annum. Vysarn anticipates that the drilling and test pumping program will begin in the second half of calendar year 2024.

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#ASX Presentation
stale
Added 2 years ago

Presentation by CEO James Clement at the ASX small & mid-cap conference. Good overview/intro to the business and some thoughts on the direction they're hoping to take it.



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#Financials
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

The market was disappointed with the results despite record revenues. I think there was expectation of info on a possible dividend which was mentioned earlier. Also the note about 2nd half likely to decrease due to "requirement to invest in further resources to support growth initiatives, the strategic rotation of drill rigs through compliance upgrades, project delays and potential other risks identified herein". I like the open discussion of risks which gives confidence in the long term prospects for the company. VAM has the potential for a major expansion with significant capital costs in the coming years. We could see the SP pull back a bit after a very strong run up from 9c and I am looking for an opportunity to reenter in SM. Still my largest holding in RL

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The Company’s carry forward tax loss balance was fully utilised during the period.

Company was in a net cash position for the first time since the relisting of Vysarn in September 2019 with net cash of $1.69 million 

PW Management is aggressively targeting a 50% increase in staff numbers year on year to not only service growing client demand but to expand PW’s service offering in wider fields of adviser expertise across water and environment. 

PH the recent significant decline of the battery metal sector has created the potential for short term utilisation risk. Management is monitoring early signs of contagion in client confidence which is manifesting in scope of work and project investment decision delays. 

PH has a small exposure to the nickel sector which is currently experiencing systemic issues on a global scale. This presents immediate utilisation risks with management prudently preparing for reallocation of assets should the need arise. 

The dual rotary rig purchased internationally to replace a conventional rig in the PH fleet has had significant arrival and release delays due to the recent protracted industrial action on Australian ports. Management still intends to attempt to receive and upgrade the rig for deployment inside FY24 but anticipates there will be up to a 4 month delay 

PH rig suite was involved in a major flood event on a client’s mine site. The Company is currently negotiating an equitable settlement with the client and PH’s insurer.

VAM’s focus in coming financial periods will be to position the Company to be able to execute agreements securing long term water supply partnerships and securing long term off take. Should the Company be successful in securing such agreements, then VAM will turn its attention to securing funds for the construction of a major pipeline to convey water.

In preparation for the Company’s next leg of growth an appropriate level of investment will be made in the 2HFY24 to acquire further senior human resources in asset management, equipment maintenance, information technology and business optimisation. The Company continues to forecast meaningful year on year earnings growth for FY24. Nevertheless, with the requirement to invest in further resources to support growth initiatives, the strategic rotation of drill rigs through compliance upgrades, project delays and potential other risks identified herein, it is the Board’s current view that 2HFY24 EBT will not exceed 2HFY23 EBT.

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#AGM Presentation 2023
stale
Added 2 years ago

Assets fully allocated to FMG, BHP and Roy Hill Iron Ore under multi-year master service agreements.

▪ Delivered record results in 2HFY23 driven by full deployment, operational efficiencies, rate increases and double shifting of one asset.

o Strategic Decision to pull multiple assets in 1HFY23 for compliance upgrades to meet Tier-1 standards

o Impact on 1HFY23 earnings but facilitated deployment on new, improved multi-year contract

VYSARN LIMITED (ASX:VYS) - Ann: AGM Presentation 2023, 71077591, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

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Return (inc div)   1yr: 182.35%   3yr: 31.73% pa   5yr: N/A


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#Outlook
stale
Added 3 years ago

Update from Euroz Hartleys giving a target of 20c.

"We have increased our Price Target to $0.20/sh; which reflects our view of FY'24 free cash flow potential.

Multiples based valuations are useful shortcut to a price target; though can be troublesome when companies are grouped with a bucket of peers that are trading at generally deflated valuations.

As a broad idea mining services valuations (in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples) continue to trade at 50% discount to 6x average and overtime we expect re-rate across the sector.

We also believe VYS's long term business model as it transitions towards water consultant ⁄ management business should warrant a premium..."

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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#Media
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Article from Tim Boreham on Stockhead that was syndicated in The Australian. Bump in the SP on Friday.

”20 ASX stocks that are primed to run in 2023”

Vy-not?

The Perth based Vysarn (ASX:VYS) is the only pure-play hydro-geological driller and it provides other end to end services such as pumping and aquifer management.

Vysarn’s resources-focused rota of clients includes BHP, Fortescue Metals and Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill.

Vysarn recovered from a shaky pandemic period to record a $4.1 million pre-tax profit in 2021-’22, 270 per cent higher, on a 79 per cent revenue surge to $46.3m.

Management guides to a $5.1 million profit this year, with the lure of a maiden div in the 2023-’24 year.

The $32 million market cap has net debt of around $4.2 million but boasts strong cash flow, so we say ‘Vy-not?’ as an investment proposition.

Held in RL

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#Certification 10/2/21
stale
Added 5 years ago

CERTIFICATION TO ISO STANDARDS UPDATE

As announced on 21 December 2020 Vysarn Limited’s (ASX:VYS) (Company) wholly owned subsidiary Pentium Hydro Pty Ltd (Pentium) received a recommendation for its Management Systems to be certified to ISO standards by the accreditation body SAI Global (SAIG) with formal receipt of the certification expected to be in February.

The formal certification to ISO standards was received on 9 February 2021. ISO certification is valid for a period of three years and is subject to annual audits, with a recertification audit required after three years. This announcement has been authorised by the Board of Vysarn Limited.

Certified Management Systems conforming to ISO standards will now enable Pentium to position itself as a preferred contractor for all tiers of current and prospective clients across multiple industry sectors requiring hydrogeological drilling services.

View Attachment

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