SP has improved over the last couple of months and the recent investor presentation along with the announcement of the 2nd atomiser commissioning has given a positive news flow. My overview is that the SP will continue to ebb and flow with announcements until revenue growth is evident in late 26 and then possible sell out by Hank in 28 once profitable.
Key take aways for me:
On planned capacity
"we have two production areas uh that we have completed one production area which houses the first atomizer we commissioned a year ago will be dedicated to C103 and refractory alloys an adjoining production area that is much larger has been built to have room for up to five atomizers dedicated to titanium production our current capex plans include three atomizers dedicated titanium but again we have room to the extent we have the long-term demand to expand to five the first of those atomizers dedicated titanium the second overall"
On tariffs
"Titanium Bar we have two supplier relationships we have a mill in China that we have a relationship with and we have a long-term supply agreement as you might recall with Perryman one of the premier titanium manufacturers in the US so we have both China supply and we have US supply the fact of the matter is today even with a 60% tariff which is the current tariff for titanium that we import from China even after that tariff the cost of our Chinese bar okay is much lower than our US bar our US bar is 50% more expensive than our titanium bar even with a 60% tariff now we have certain applications that require what's called DEFAR material or US allied source material particularly defense applications of which we are using US source bar we have other applications that are more price sensitive uh of which we are using Chinese bar
On growth
"I say with confidence this year will be the year that we scale revenue I would then expect 100% year-over-year growth into 27 100% year-over year growth from 27 into 28 given the demand and the nature of the market that we're satisfying"
" our revenue mix what I would expect is about 80% of our revenues will come from long-term agreements and about 50% of revenues from DoD or the US government and about 50% of revenues from commercial"
On qualification process delays to supply agreements
"there will be certain opportunities that have very very long qualifications so probably the longest qualification would be to be in a rotor part aerospace it could be two or three years to get qualified with Boeing right in that type of application you've got other applications such as printing suppressors which is a great AM application and very timely given change of the legislation in the US we can qualify with a printer in a matter of weeks right for that type of application and printing suppressors and then you've got other opportunities that fall in the middle a medical application might be uh for an existing part where you're updating a material it could be six to 12 months right uh and we are approaching that along the way where you know different parts of qualifying with different companies on different applications if you look at where we are for FY26 revenue I do not see any qualification impediments that is I'm highly confident we can achieve FY26 revenue and the goals that we have with our current qualifications and current qualification strategy"
On US govt cuts
"there's five areas they're increasing hypersonics missile defense submarine industrial base AI and unmanned the first three of those directly align with our initiatives right hypersonics missile defense and submarine industrial base so I think we continue to be highly in line with this administration strategic policies"
On FY26 progress
"so I would say that the the leadership's primary two priorities for fiscal year 26 is we now will embark upon scaling production so up to this point we've been operating one shift on one atomizer as of July 1 we'll be operating all out full production of one shift on two atomizers we'll then be adding a second shift later in the quarter or probably more like the second quarter of the fiscal year because we've invested forward in our capacity right and we've done this very intentionally we're establishing capacity a couple years ahead of where the demand signal is at any given time we'll be operating at maybe 50% capacity and the benefit that gives me when I'm having these large strategic conversations right now is no one and I underscore no one else US domestic production has capacity to scale at the pace that we do
Held in SM and RL