3DA investor webinar. They missed guidance due to being unable to complete outstanding orders despite ramping up production and took in a $4.7M worth of feedstock inventory (60 tonnes pre-tariffs) so had a cash outflow of $9.9M. Despite the growth the market didn't like the numbers that seemed to suggest that the 3rd (due to ship Jan 26 and commission June 26, 4th to be ordered by CY26) atomiser would be needed to produce enough powder to turn a profit and the SP took a hit. Options (18c) expire December 2nd (I have taken up mine in RL). Despite stating they were fully funded they raised $50M @40c (which turned out to be a good price as it sits at 28c at time of writing) I didn't participate in the SPP in RL as the price quickly fell to well below the SPP price.

Expecting kg of powder shipped to steadily increase Q on Q but revenue may be lumpy as high value C103 may not ship every quarter. 3rd and 4th atomiser planned to operate at 50%+ to allow for accommodating large orders.

I will continue to hold for the next couple of years as long as the revenue keeps making progress towards FCF.

Highlights

Financial Performance

Amaero reported revenue for the September Quarter of A$4.7 million.

Revenue included approximately A$4.1 million from powder sales and A$0.6 million from Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing ("PM-HIP") manufacturing. This reflects a 445% increase from the Q1 FY2025 period.

Though production increased by approximately 240% from Q4 FY2025, the finished powder was insufficient to fill all Q1 FY2026 orders. The Company begins Q2 FY2026 with a backlog of unfilled Q1 orders, totalling A$0.5 million.

Cash used in operating activities was A$9.9 million, including A$4.7 million in inventory purchases. A significant portion of these inventory purchases represented buffer stock built to reduce exposure to potential trade disruptions and tariff policy uncertainty.

The Company ended the September Quarter with a cash and restricted cash balance of A$50.9 million.

After the Reporting Period, the Company received US$5.7 million on 3 October 2025 from draw on Export-Import Bank of the United States (“EXIM Bank”) equipment financing loan. The total EXIM Bank loan commitment equals US$22.8 million or US$20.3 million net of exposure fee. After the recent draw, the EXIM Bank loan balance equals US$13.3 million, net of exposure fee. The Company expects to draw the balance of the loan in FY2026.

Scaling Manufacturing Production

In anticipation of scaling manufacturing, the Company engaged a consulting firm to evaluate the manufacturing processes and recommended improvements to scale production, to improve safety and to enhance quality controls.

The Company re-structured the operations team and added Mark Struss, VP – Manufacturing Operations, to manage manufacturing operations. Additional processing equipment has been ordered and will be commissioned in Q2 and Q3 FY2026.

Customer powder shipments increased from 4,900 kg in Q4 FY2025 to 12,410 in Q1 FY2026, a sequential increase of 153%.

Atomization increased from 8,000 kg in Q4 FY2025 to 27,000 kg in Q1 FY2026; an increase of approximately 240%. Production shifted from a single, 8-hour shift, 5 days per week on one atomizer to two, 10-hour shifts, 6 days per week on 2 atomizers. The increased production and processing was insufficient to meet the demand and to fill all orders.

Financial and Commercial Update

On 13 August 2025, Amaero provided a financial update reaffirming that it expected to significantly scale revenue in FY2026 and that it expects to achieve positive EBITDA in FY2027. Amaero estimated Q1 FY2026 revenue equal to approximately A$5.5 million, a 550% increase from the Q1 FY2025 period.

On the commercial front, Amaero continued to advance numerous commercial opportunities, including:

Amaero received contracts from a U.S. Department of Defense Prime Contractor (“Defense Prime Contractor”)1 and collaborated closely over the past year. As culmination of the initial contracts, we expect to deliver First Article parts in September or October 2025. First Article Qualification is an important step toward receiving a contract for production parts. The ongoing collaboration with the Defense Prime Contractor and the production of First Article parts further establishes PM-HIP manufacturing as a mature technology that’s an immediate and viable substitute for large castings and forgings.

The Company has recently commenced a development collaboration with The Boeing Company (“Boeing”). The collaboration leverages Amaero’s pioneering experience in PM-HIP manufacturing of large near-net-shape parts and Boeing’s vast manufacturing and materials experience.

As it relates to Amaero’s refractory and titanium powder business, we are pleased to share that we had orders from 14 different customers in Q1 FY2026. The orders included and we successfully atomized Niobium C103, pure Niobium, Tungsten (WHA), TZM and Titanium (Ti64).

A$50M Placement to Accelerate Growth Initiatives

Placement of 125 million new fully paid ordinary shares at an issue price of A$0.40 per share (“New Shares”) to raise gross proceeds of A$50 million before costs.

Amaero plans to accelerate investments that include ordering a 4th atomizer by end of this calendar year, design-build of an Argon gas recycling unit and other corporate development initiatives.

The webinar listed some opportunities

SP has improved over the last couple of months and the recent investor presentation along with the announcement of the 2nd atomiser commissioning has given a positive news flow. My overview is that the SP will continue to ebb and flow with announcements until revenue growth is evident in late 26 and then possible sell out by Hank in 28 once profitable.

Key take aways for me:

On planned capacity

"we have two production areas uh that we have completed one production area which houses the first atomizer we commissioned a year ago will be dedicated to C103 and refractory alloys an adjoining production area that is much larger has been built to have room for up to five atomizers dedicated to titanium production our current capex plans include three atomizers dedicated titanium but again we have room to the extent we have the long-term demand to expand to five the first of those atomizers dedicated titanium the second overall"

On tariffs

"Titanium Bar we have two supplier relationships we have a mill in China that we have a relationship with and we have a long-term supply agreement as you might recall with Perryman one of the premier titanium manufacturers in the US so we have both China supply and we have US supply the fact of the matter is today even with a 60% tariff which is the current tariff for titanium that we import from China even after that tariff the cost of our Chinese bar okay is much lower than our US bar our US bar is 50% more expensive than our titanium bar even with a 60% tariff now we have certain applications that require what's called DEFAR material or US allied source material particularly defense applications of which we are using US source bar we have other applications that are more price sensitive uh of which we are using Chinese bar

On growth

"I say with confidence this year will be the year that we scale revenue I would then expect 100% year-over-year growth into 27 100% year-over year growth from 27 into 28 given the demand and the nature of the market that we're satisfying"

" our revenue mix what I would expect is about 80% of our revenues will come from long-term agreements and about 50% of revenues from DoD or the US government and about 50% of revenues from commercial"

On qualification process delays to supply agreements

"there will be certain opportunities that have very very long qualifications so probably the longest qualification would be to be in a rotor part aerospace it could be two or three years to get qualified with Boeing right in that type of application you've got other applications such as printing suppressors which is a great AM application and very timely given change of the legislation in the US we can qualify with a printer in a matter of weeks right for that type of application and printing suppressors and then you've got other opportunities that fall in the middle a medical application might be uh for an existing part where you're updating a material it could be six to 12 months right uh and we are approaching that along the way where you know different parts of qualifying with different companies on different applications if you look at where we are for FY26 revenue I do not see any qualification impediments that is I'm highly confident we can achieve FY26 revenue and the goals that we have with our current qualifications and current qualification strategy"

On US govt cuts

"there's five areas they're increasing hypersonics missile defense submarine industrial base AI and unmanned the first three of those directly align with our initiatives right hypersonics missile defense and submarine industrial base so I think we continue to be highly in line with this administration strategic policies"

On FY26 progress

"so I would say that the the leadership's primary two priorities for fiscal year 26 is we now will embark upon scaling production so up to this point we've been operating one shift on one atomizer as of July 1 we'll be operating all out full production of one shift on two atomizers we'll then be adding a second shift later in the quarter or probably more like the second quarter of the fiscal year because we've invested forward in our capacity right and we've done this very intentionally we're establishing capacity a couple years ahead of where the demand signal is at any given time we'll be operating at maybe 50% capacity and the benefit that gives me when I'm having these large strategic conversations right now is no one and I underscore no one else US domestic production has capacity to scale at the pace that we do

Held in SM and RL

Updated Financial Guidance from 3DA putting profitability back to 2027 and reducing expected demand of C103. SP was up 4% today despite the news and still a long way off highs.

"The extended Continuing Resolution (CR) for the FY2025 congressional United States budget and the Department of Defense programs paused “new starts” and “re-starts” has contributed to a delay in revenue and new contracts. Additionally, various hypersonic programs have advanced more slowly through research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E). An updated Fairmont Consulting study estimates demand for C103 powder at approximately 93 tonnes in FY2030 versus an earlier estimate on 8 February 2024 of approximately 105 tonnes in FY2028."

"The Company expects revenue growth to accelerate in the current quarter and a continuation of accelerated revenue growth into FY2026."

C103 alloy qualification completed ahead of schedule and announcement of partner identity. This was expected but is a further derisking of the company's business plan.

Amaero Completes Qualification of Niobium C103 with ADDMAN

Amaero completes qualification of C103 AM powder to ADDMAN Group and its subsidiary Castheon’s technical specifications.

Positions Amaero as the largest capacity and most responsive U.S. domestic producer of C103, refractory and specialty alloy powder for additive manufacturing.

Amaero’s successful qualification of C103 AM powder triggers ADDMAN’s offtake obligation with 0.25 tonnes expected to ship in CY2024 and 2.0 tonnes expected to ship in CY2025.

The qualification commences a five year preferred supplier agreement whereby Amaero will be the primary supplier of C103, refractory and titanium alloy AM powder to ADDMAN Group and its subsidiaries, including Castheon and Keselowski Advanced Manufacturing. Expected future sales are material to Amaero’s revenue; moreover, the attributable revenue is a key assumption underpinning Amaero’s expectation that it will achieve EBITDA breakeven in FY2026. 

RAAS flash comment on the raise. "We anticipate that the next significant milestone for the company will be the release of the Fairmont Consulting Group’s review of the company’s business model early in the New Year. 

Our expectation is that Amaero will deliver revenue from FY25, profitability from FY26, and achieve “at capacity” earnings in H2 CY28. Our forecasts anticipate Amaero will opt to produce a range of powders, first C103, followed by specialty alloy and Ti64 titanium powder. Our modelling has incorporated only three gas atomisers as per 3DA’s commentary, despite having capacity in its Tennessee facility for five. A decision to add additional gas atomisers and/or to focus entirely on C103 or a mix of C103 and specialty powders would have a significant impact on our forecasts. 

Retail investors left out of CR for US facility. Looks like a takeover on the cheap as Pegasus moves closer to a 50% stake.

Amaero secures firm commitments from new and existing institutional and sophisticated investors to raise A$10 million

Subscription price at A$0.1600 per share, representing a 15.8% discount to the last traded price on Thursday, 16 November 2023 and a 18.3% discount to the 5-day VWAP

Funds raised will be used for the Tennessee facility fit out and purchase of capital equipment

Pegasus Growth Capital leads the two-tranche Placement with A$4 million commitment. Increasing shareholding to 45% and 47% after options taken up

In addition to Pegasus, the financing had broad participation from the Board of Directors and from senior management. Further, an investment fund at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, a premier and pioneering law firm that specialises on emerging growth businesses, participated in the financing

Free attaching unlisted options exercisable at A$0.2400 per Share and expiring on the date that is 3 years from the issue of those options,

The Company proposes to use the proceeds from the Placement as follows: Facility fit-out A$5,680,000 Capital equipment A$4,320,000

Reading the EGM documentation an issue of 62M shares which is a dilution of nearly 60% for an input of 14% of market cap.

Disc small holding in RL

What a shocker of a strategic revue. SP down 28%. US based private equity firm Pegasus Growth Capital takes over. Not focusing on 3d printing and not making Titanium powder in AU despite taking out a lease on a location. As a result, it is no longer anticipated that Amaero will become cash flow positive in CY2023. (after projecting 40M revenue)

In terms of the Company’s Fletcher Insulation, Rio Tinto and Boeing projects, these projects are continuing but are not anticipated to produce significant revenue in the near term.

As a result of the strategic review undertaken:

o Amaero will not proceed with the titanium powder manufacturing facility in Victoria, Australia

o The Board is taking active steps to pursue alternative opportunities for titanium powder production with Mr Holland exploring a number of opportunities in the Middle East over the past four weeks

o The Board has determined that Amaero’s operations will be primarily focused on titanium powder production

Hold a small parcel in RL not worth selling will hold and see if anything comes of the titanium powder production

I had a brief look into Amaero International Ltd following recent news that the company is building a “world-class” titanium powder plant in VIC. 

Brief overview:
- Operations based in the US, with new facility to be build in Victoria. 
- The firm has approval to supply large US defence contractors courtesy of approval it holds for various ITAR-regulated projects. 
- High annual growth anticipated, 105% according to Simply Wall Street (this is possibly a touch optimistic)
- Recent insider buying, albeit small levels. 
- 10% insider ownership. 
- No debt, although shareholders have been diluted in the past year - which doesnt surprise me given the company is running at pretty significant losses (more on this below). 
- Industry with tailwinds, but various competitors listed in the ASX. 
- Amaero has attained exclusive rights to commercialise two patented and proprietary alloys developed by Monash University - who the company has worked with since 2013. 

Competitors:
Four ASX stocks specialise in 3D printing - AML3D, Titomic, Aurora Labs and Amaero. Amaero appears to be impressive, with some obvious tailwinds in the 3D printing space - but there are several competitors with similar tailwinds. Research
conducted by stockbrief in 2020 suggested Amaero actually had the lowest revenue of its four competitors, with the highest loss margins.  

A brief description of Titomic Limited (ASX TTT) below, as they appear to be the main ASX-listed competitors:
- Also focuses on titanium metals
- Claims to have world’s largest and fastest metal 3D printer using the Cold Spray process, developed jointly with CSIRO
- Competing in many of the same areas as Amaero (defence and space), but also consumer goods, construction etc. 
- Two global CSIRO patents. 

3D printing companies are all vying to compete in a global market that is anticipated to reach US$23.6bn by 2025. While it appears Amaero are establishing themselves as a key player, particularly with allied defence partners, this doesn't meet the risk/reward ratio for me to invest. The commercialisation of its products and consistent revenue/profit will obviously be key for the company. Until this occurs, Amaero will sit nicely on the watchlist. 

Would appreciate anyone else's thoughts :-)