Forum Topics PNV PNV FY25 Trading Result

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/39af0c167fd665b15e92f932082af5cf

Should be an interesting meeting today at 8:30am AEST.

USA and RoW growth about the same...with RoW growth slightly improving...but not yet where DW has said he wants it.


Outstanding questions with PNV

  • When will next CEO be appointed?
  • Growth - USA - Given exchange rates have not helped...the actual gorwth is less than reported. So we are def seeing a slowdown in USA. To continue, they need new products.
  • Growth - RoW - How are they going to address RoW growth? Remember, these growth figures are coming off a relatively small base. And given the USA growth profile (and adjust down for smaller economies perhaps)...we should be seeing larger RoW Growth. So what is going to be the plan. More staff? Different approaches? what?
  • New Products - This is desperately needed. And probably years away from serious cash inflows.


I want to re-invest in PNV....but until I see:

  • New CEO
  • CEO that shares the same vision as DW
  • A plan for RoW growth
  • How they will accel new products


Until all those have been addressed...i'm going to wait...


One thought - with all this cash coming in....what will they spend it on?

mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Parko5 - all good questions.

I'm looking forward to hearing your report back as I wont be attending. I'm still following, but I am most interested in what the financials now, so I'm going to wait for the FY25 report.

$ARX posted yesterday and their cash receipts were up 26% on the PCP. $IART is reporting before NY opens later today, so I'll take a look at that, and $AVH (where I have a small bet) is reporting next week.

So, when they are all in, that will give a nice view of the dermal repair sector. It does look like $PNV are still taking share in the segment in the US. So there maybe a play here off BTM and MTX, given SP inn $1.20 - $1.50 range.

RoW is still a puzzle - Australia doesn't even feature in the growth "merit list" from my recollection, although clearly trauma surgeons are continuing to go gangbusters in the UK...quite a few publications from there.

The CEO point, though, is importantant. As for the cash - that can drive R&D and maybe a venture on the drug elution technology, as I think $PNV need to be doing more than just selling little pieces of Novosorb. (A bit like the paper company that supplies paper to 3M for Post-its, i'm guessing).

Disc: Not held


15
Parko5
Added 4 months ago

The following are my notes from the Bell Potter interview this morning with DW:


Company Outlook & Strategy

  • "Business as usual" – No major shifts in direction.
  • USA remains the engine room – Continued strong growth and focus.
  • RoW expansion – Initial sales now progressing into second orders. Growth expected across all international markets.
  • Canada – 3 salespeople now on the ground.
  • Serbia use case – Unreported but promising clinical applications: cleft palate by a surgeon.
  • New therapeutic avenues – Cell and medical delivery showing early signs of becoming a major new revenue stream.

Sales Force Expansion

  • USA - 88 sales reps on the ground, 9 new hires underway (soon to be 98)
  • Each salesperson typically generates ~$1 million in revenue
  • Sales reps ‘pay for themselves quickly’
  • Some U.S. regions still not covered – room for further expansion.
  • Sales model efficiency – Once a surgeon adopts, minimal ongoing effort needed; reps can move on to new targets.
  • Podiatry expansion – New U.S. opportunity to "supercharge" growth.

Financials & Growth

  • FY26 Revenue guidepost – June sales of $13 million are a good proxy for ~$150 million annualised.
  • June was a record month, but revenue can be “lumpy.”
  • Tariffs not a concern – Financial impact considered small.
  • 10% price increase implemented in the U.S. this year
  • Trauma products are price inelastic – Demand not materially impacted by pricing changes.
  • MTX product (launched in the U.S.):
  • $2M in first half, $4M in second half – strong growth trajectory.
  • Used as both a substitute and complement to other products.
  • Exploring new use cases.


Capital Position

  • No capital raise required – Sufficient cash on hand to fund capex plans etc.


Short Selling & Market Sentiment

  • Stock is currently being shorted
  • Williams believes short sellers will be forced to cover due to upcoming positive surprises:
  • New country entries
  • New clinical applications


Bell Potter Q&A Highlights

  • Revenue variations explained by:
  • Entry into new countries
  • India taking longer to convert to revenue
  • June’s record month – Considered representative of future run-rate despite some lumpiness.
  • CEO Search:
  • Robyn Elliott remains acting CEO
  • Search is ongoing
  • A challenging position due to the company being both large and entrepreneurial


So no answer to my questions above...but I am keeping a close eye.


I also note the SP seems to be stuck around this $1.20-1.30 range......the shorts probably keeping it here waiting to see what will happen.

I think this compnay could get everything sorted (CEO, Growth and new products)....and then easily be back in the $2-3 range.

21

mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Parko5 great notes - thanks!

On share price catalysts, not sure that new country entries and new applications as significant catalysts.

But if they can keep grinding and gain US share, drive the UK/EU countries and them optimise sales and marketing with mature accounts moving to a maintenance mode, then this business can start throwing off serious cash, and once the market gets sight of that, then I agree it could re-rate.

Bell ($2.00) and Macquaries ($2.45) remain perennial bulls. I'm less certain now, but still open to the possibility.

Short position is staying stubbournly high.

Overall, worth keeping an eye on from the sidelines - I just don't have the conviction I used to.


6fde67f27f97262a8504947062c1b251b7e941.png


19