Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT

Botanix Pharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:BOT
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$0.120 (-4%)
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#29
Rank
40
Held by
65
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Forum Topics BOT BOT What is BOT Utopia?

Pinned straw:
jcmleng
Added 4 months ago

Am methodically working through all the posts on BOT since "The Nightmare" of early July to take stock and review my conviction on BOT and action to take. There are lots and lots of very valuable insights ...

Upfront apologies for what feels like a dumb question to me, being rather new to BOT, but it keeps popping up in my head as I work through the posts on BOT:

"What is the utopia target or targets, implicitly or explicitly, that the market is expecting from BOT which caused the huge disappointment following the July "The Nightmare" announcement ie, oh crap, given current trajectory, I think target x is going to be missed/delayed/short ...

Is it $100m top line revenue in CY2026? Or cash flow positive in CY2026? Both? Or something else? I had $100 top line revenue in CY2026 as a goal that I think popped up in the Matt SM interview.

The reason for asking is that it feels like a lot of the analysis seems to be trying to establish if BOT can still get to "something" but I am not clear what that "something" is.

Or should I just ignore that "something" and work bottom up to determine if the investment case still makes sense, given current trajectory, which is how I framed my thesis. Sofdra is going to change lives, there is a huge TAM, and BOT is well positioned to go after that TAM in the coming months/years ... onward and upward?

Discl: Held IRL and in SM
mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

Great question @jcmleng - and it took me a while to get to that myself.

I think there are several elements to the "disappointment":

  • Howie and Matt certainty create an expectation of FY26 Revenue of >$100m. No question in my mind. I think that's likely blown now.
  • The GTN number was also a negative surprise, driving early quarterly revenue to be well below consensus
  • Possibly, also a change in tone around digital and new products for the platform - being interpreted as a lack of confidence (Rather than a correct 100% focus on Sofdra and rational resource allocation, as was adequately (IMO) explained in the 4C call.)


And despite using some positive benchmarks and making some positive statements, I don't think these were tangible enough for many holders and "the market" to continue to believe. So I think the market has put a lot of "risk" onto this, and will now adopt a "show me the money" approach.

And of course, when some holders leave the register, is creates the short term negative momentum that feeds itself.

I don't think anyone can say with any certainty what peak sales for SOFDRA in the US will be. And so the revaluation can be argued to be perfectly rational.

But if you believe, like I do, that they can get to > A$70m revenue in FY26 and >$125m in FY27 (i.e., as a lower bound on the range), then $0.15 is undervalued. If you don't believe that, then maybe the market is right.

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Schwerms
Added 4 months ago

@mikebrisy covered most of it, i think another part is the launch has been a bit slower than initially planned as far as starting. Early launch material suggested late Q3 CY25 for some action but really it was late Q4 with boots on the ground in Feb.

They failed to mention the GTN will build to high 30s but will essentially start in the low teens. They only ever touted the headlong GTN and assumed common knowledge of the US healthcare reimbursement system.

I did make a post regarding the healthcare system very early into the launch as I was struggling to understand how the high deductible plans worked and how the GTN was affected.

Still good potential for me and even in a bearish case from here they are worth more than they are IMO. Wearing a hefty paper loss currently and will be waiting for the first upgrade to buy any more

Edit: one other surprise is I think they have underperformed Kaken significantly, maybe having an incumbent treatment in Qbrexza and also not having an established field force was much more of an impact than expected, also with the expectation of digital they launched with 25 reps, that zorve they referenced in the nightmare webinar had around 80 reps. While the underperformance is disappointing as they strengthen the sales team to 50, still good potential.

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