Thursday 7th August 2025: Marcus Padley's EOD newsletter contained this little bit of scuttlebutt:

Northern Star Resources (NST +1.5%) – speculation in The Australian regarding a potential takeover from Canada’s largest gold miner Agnico Eagle. Would be a big purchase but not out of the question. NST market cap = $24.5bn. Eagle market cap = $105bn.

Interesting.

[Holding]

Google says:

There are recent reports suggesting that Canadian gold giant Agnico Eagle is considering a potential takeover of Australian gold miner Northern Star Resources, a move that could significantly reshape the Australian mining sector. While Agnico Eagle has a history of exploring many assets without closing a deal, sources indicate the company is now focused on establishing a major presence in Western Australia, making Northern Star a possible target. This speculation comes amid Agnico's recent growth and focus on acquiring high-quality assets in stable, gold-rich regions like Australia.

Why Agnico Eagle is interested in Northern Star

• Strategic Fit:
• Agnico Eagle is seeking to establish a strong presence in Western Australia and has been exploring potential acquisitions in the region. 
• High-Quality Assets:
• The company's CEO has stated that Agnico Eagle is only interested in major deals involving high-quality assets, suggesting Northern Star's mines would fit their criteria. 
• Previous M&A Success:
• Agnico Eagle has a proven track record of successfully acquiring assets, such as its merger with Kirkland Lake, which has seen its share price significantly increase. 

Context of the Potential Deal

• Australian Mining Sector:
• A deal could lead to a major restructuring of Australia's gold mining landscape, as Northern Star is a significant player in the industry. 
• Agnico's Strategy:
• Agnico Eagle, the world's second-largest gold producer, is looking for opportunities to grow and gain a significant market position. 
• Focus on Exploration and Expansion:
• Northern Star is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of its Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines operations, which could appeal to a buyer like Agnico Eagle, according to The Australian. 

Further Reading:

The Australian: Gold titans eye Northern Star deal [06-August-2025]

Fresh speculation has emerged Canada's second-largest gold producer is preparing to swoop on Northern Star in a deal which could reshape Australia's mining sector.

Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/gold-titans-eye-northern-star-deal/news-story/41f5cb3334696581ca068d3c80f0202d

[Holding NST]

The Australian: Agnico Eagle tipped to be eyeing $1.2bn Bellevue Gold [03-August-2025]

Canadian Eagle may have landed on Bellevue plan

Executives from Canada’s largest mining company have been spotted at Bellevue Gold’s flagship Western Australian project, fuelling speculation the world’s second-largest gold producer is weighing a bid for the struggling $1.2bn miner.

Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/agnico-eagle-tipped-to-be-eyeing-12bn-bellevue-gold/news-story/e6c89a3c8d6173e5f57a562378cea1c5

[Holding BGL]

I guess if you start enough rumours, one of them has got to be right eventually, right?!?

Also, last month:

AFR: Northern Star drops gold hedging to cash in on soaring bullion price [24-July-2025]

by Mark Wembridge, Resources reporter, AFR:

Northern Star Resources has axed its forward hedging policy to take advantage of the soaring gold price, as it grapples with problems at its Super Pit mine in Kalgoorlie that have curbed production and increased costs.

The ASX’s biggest listed gold producer had previously hoped to produce as much as 1.8 million ounces in the 2025 financial year, but abandoned that forecast. Northern Star confirmed that it could only sell about 1.6 million ounces this year, and that slower output would continue into 2026.

Northern Star’s Super Pit gold mine at Kalgoorlie faces operational challenges that have forced the miner to increase its spending. Bloomberg

“It’s been a challenging 12-month period as we have faced productivity and cost headwinds, particularly at KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines), our largest asset,” said Stuart Tonkin, managing director. “This led us to confirm that we will not reach our ambitious 2 million ounce per annum group target in 2026, primarily because KCGM is not yet able to deliver the 650,000-ounce a year run rate.”

The company’s shares slipped 2 per cent to $16.31. Northern Star’s shares have been buoyed by gold’s barnstorming run over the past 18 months, which saw prices soar above $5300 per ounce earlier this year.

Northern Star has dropped its policy of selling some of its gold on forward hedging contracts, to give it greater exposure to booming prices. The miner currently has hedging contracts in place for about 1.4 million ounces at an average price of $3286 each, well below the spot price.

Gold’s rally has been driven by global trade uncertainty and a trend by some central banks to switch their reserves away from the US dollar. In the three months to the end of June, Northern Star sold its gold for an average of $4483 per ounce.

The troubles at its Kalgoorlie operations were offset to some extent by stronger performances at its Yandal and Pogo mines in Western Australia and the US. The miner has been forced to spend more money to expand its milling facilities in Kalgoorlie, leading to an increase in all-in costs to $3352 per ounce.

Alex Barkley, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said the decision to drop its hedging policy was “a positive signal ... suggesting confidence in its balance sheet and cash flow outlook. This provides some reassurance ahead of remaining KCGM capital expenditure and Hemi’s construction.”

Northern Star’s biggest asset is the Super Pit in Western Australia’s Goldfields region – a mine that has produced more than 21 million ounces of gold since open pit mining commenced in 1989.

The miner added to its list of assets earlier this year when it completed the takeover of smaller rival De Grey Mining in an all-shares deal worth $6 billion. The buyout has granted Northern Star control of the proposed Hemi mine in the Pilbara – a region better known for its iron ore riches.

Hemi has been described by analysts as the most promising undeveloped gold mine in Australia, and is thought to hold more than 11 million ounces – worth more than $50 billion at current prices. The $1.3 billion mine is still pending approvals before construction can start, and last month it received the tentative green light from the Environmental Protection Authority.

However, the native title body corporation that oversees the land Hemi sits on has appealed against the EPA’s decision, accusing the agency of turning a deaf ear to its concerns about the ecological impact of mine wastewater on local rivers.

Tonkin dismissed concerns about the appeal lodged by the Kariyarra Aboriginal Corporation, and said: “We are very aligned with the thinking of all stakeholders, and there are lots of options. We’ll continue to look at those options.”

If it receives all the required approvals, Hemi is expected to produce 530,000 ounces per year, placing it among the country’s top five gold mines by volume. Estimates published by federal government agencies have forecast gold to become the country’s third-highest value export in the next year, overtaking metallurgical coal, a key steelmaking ingredient.

--- ends ---

Source: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/northern-star-drops-gold-hedging-to-cash-in-on-soaring-bullion-price-20250723-p5mhd4

[Holding NST, and BGL. Not holding Agnico Eagle or any other overseas listed goldie.]