@Solvetheriddle I'm probably a little more sanguine about this industry than you, with the caveat that they are not set and forget investments and not suited to a passive investor. My view on that might be colored by the fact that I actually made pretty good money on GQG (not as much as I should have and I'll get to that). There might be some outcome bias there that I'll reflect on more over time.

My sale reflects the fact that I see three broad outcomes in the short and medium term and none are great:

1. The market continues to rip and while GQG stays defensively positioned, they continue to lag and outflows grow - BAD
2. The market rolls over, GQG is proven correct but it's a pyrrhic victory because while they may outperform on a relative basis, they're still going to lose FUM on an absolute basis - BAD
3. The market takes a breather and GQG's holdings do relatively well for a time, their performance versus benchmarks slowly improves and outflows gradually abate - LEAST BAD BUT SLOW

My annoyance isn't directed at Rajiv Jain and I don't put him in the same basket as KN and particularly HD - when you compare either their public or private lives. Going defensive seemed a pretty reasonable strategy to me earlier this year and like many I've been perplexed (and pleased) with how markets have performed. I am, however, a bit annoyed at myself for not reacting faster. That's where I mean that I should have made a larger profit on this one.

In my initial valuation I wrote "as we've seen with Magellan this is a highly competitive industry and if performance suffers it doesn't take long for this to be reflected in outflows". So I knew what to look for, but I didn't action it. Part of the reason I don't write the industry off is that you do get lead indicators, not least in the form of monthly updates from the company and even more regular updates from others like Morningstar on their portfolio performance. Like others I could see the performance turn. I'm not saying I should have gotten out completely, that's not necessarily my strategy, but as they began to underperform the risk was going up and I was too worried about not jumping at false positives. As the risk increased, I should have been lightening.

So that's a learning but as I alluded to at the end of the ditty yesterday, I don't see it as completely uninvestable in the future. Though probably not in the next 12 months or so.

Interesting thought but i think AEF attracts investors and members that are willing to sacrifice relative performance and pay higher fees.

GQG is unashamedly all focused on consistent outperformance and it has attracted investors that expect as much.